Jefferson Lopez (P, ACL Reds) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jefferson Lopez P ACL Reds

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	2	0	3	14	2	4	0	0%	1.3	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	10.12	5.51	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	2	0	3	14	2	4	0	0%	1.3	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	10.12	6.10	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	0	19	85	20	9	1	0%	1.5	16.0%	13.2%	2.8%	1.6%	4.66	4.31	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	13	0	19	85	20	9	1	0%	1.5	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	1.2%	4.66	3.10	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	14	0	24	90	29	6	0	0%	1.7	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	0.0%	1.50	2.31	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	14	0	24	90	29	6	0	0%	1.7	32.2%	6.7%	25.6%	0.0%	1.50	1.43	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	127	39	11	5	0%	1.4	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	4.6%	6.39	5.03	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	127	39	11	5	0%	1.4	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	4.6%	6.39	5.03	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	25	127	39	11	5	0%	1.4	30.7%	8.7%	22.0%	3.9%	6.39	3.89	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	3	15	2	0	3	0%	1.1	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	20.0%	10.80	12.95	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	3	15	2	0	3	0%	1.1	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	20.0%	10.80	12.95	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	0	3	15	2	0	3	0%	1.1	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	20.0%	10.80	13.60	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.34	4.33	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.34	4.33	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.34	3.95	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.34	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		50	0	75	331	65	35	10	0%	1.5	19.7%	10.7%	9.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	887	175	95	27	0%	1.5	19.7%	10.7%	9.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.48	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.3%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.33	23.5%	14.2%	20	-0.02	—	—	—
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	89
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	88
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	87
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	86
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	85
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	85
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Josh Roenicke R 2009 · 3.25 FIP	26	SU	3.25	23.9%	10.9%	1.5%	.341	4.17	15.4%	4.7%	124	+0.92	3.25	500	84
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	84
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	84
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	83