Justin Fall — OGILVIE

Justin Fall P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 240 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%22.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	5	0	7	30	9	3	0	0%	1.4	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	5.14	1.83	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	5	0	7	30	9	3	0	0%	1.4	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	5.14	1.81	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	91	385	82	21	1	79%	4.8	15.6%	6.7%	8.9%	0.4%	3.87	2.83	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	91	385	82	21	1	79%	4.8	21.3%	5.5%	15.8%	0.3%	3.87	2.13	—
2023	24	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	0	12	71	12	11	2	0%	2.4	12.5%	18.3%	-5.8%	4.0%	13.50	6.54	—
2023	24	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	0	12	71	12	11	2	0%	2.4	12.5%	18.3%	-5.8%	4.0%	13.50	6.54	—
2023	24	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	0	12	71	12	11	2	0%	2.4	16.9%	15.5%	1.4%	2.8%	13.50	6.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	3	3	20	84	19	9	3	100%	6.7	22.4%	11.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	7	31	7	3	1	100%	7.3	22.4%	11.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.30	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	193	83	28	100%	7.3	22.4%	11.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		29	15	110	486	78	42	4	52%	3.8	16.0%	8.6%	7.4%	0.9%	5.01	3.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	27	200	886	142	76	8	52%	3.8	16.0%	8.6%	7.4%	0.9%	5.01	3.31	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Fall (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	22.5%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.68	22.4%	11.5%	20	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	67
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	65
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	65
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	65
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	62
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	62
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	62
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	62
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	61
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	61
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	61
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	61
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	60
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	60
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	60
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	59
Garrett Williams L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP-	4.71	24.9%	14.2%	3.5%	.323	4.06	22.9%	1.9%	53	-0.65	3.37	470	59
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	59
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	58
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	58