Justin Fall
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP7
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 1.83 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 5 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 1.81 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 82 | 21 | 1 | 79% | 4.8 | 15.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 0.4% | 3.87 | 2.84 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 82 | 21 | 1 | 79% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 15.8% | 0.3% | 3.87 | 2.13 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 5 | 0 | 12 | 71 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 2.4 | 12.5% | 18.3% | -5.8% | 4.3% | 13.50 | 6.73 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 5 | 0 | 12 | 71 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 2.4 | 16.9% | 15.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 13.50 | 6.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.3 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.06 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 27 | 27 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 83 | 28 | 100% | 7.3 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 15 | 110 | 486 | 78 | 42 | 5 | 52% | 3.8 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 0.9% | 5.01 | 3.35 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 27 | 200 | 886 | 142 | 76 | 8 | 52% | 3.8 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 0.9% | 5.01 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Fall (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 72 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 69 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 66 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Jacques Pucheu L 2024 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.21 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 134 | 65 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 65 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 64 |
| Andy Otero L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 64 |
| Nate Peterson L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.67 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 1.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 288 | 63 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 63 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 62 |
| Rito Lugo L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 176 | 62 |
| Hunter Barco L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 61 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 61 |
| Joe Adametz L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 236 | 61 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 61 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 61 |
| Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 60 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 135 | 60 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 60 |