Christian Cairo

SS Syracuse Mets

Age 26 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	AAACLE	416	.237/.341/.331	2	33	66	—	.215/.298/.286
2026	25	AAANYM	525	.230/.384/.300	4	25	80	—	.223/.337/.280
2027PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBNYM	75	.204/.305/.268	0	3	73	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBNYM	140	.205/.305/.272	1	6	73	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	28	MLBNYM	173	.205/.303/.274	1	7	73	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%94

BB%93

K%85

Whiff%76

Z-Con%72

Max EV48

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJack Dunn (age 27) · Kenny Wilson (age 26) · Adam Godwin (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .305 / .268

PA75

HR0

K%23

BB%11

BABIP266

ISO30

MLB%30%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	86	71	19	5	0	3	12	21	2	4	1	268	388	465	853	197	340	24	14	377	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	181	38	6	2	3	37	63	8	15	2	210	367	315	682	105	299	28	16	320	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	235	187	37	8	1	2	41	64	7	10	2	198	362	283	645	86	289	27	17	312	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	19	15	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	200	368	200	568		250	16	21	290	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	229	188	45	6	3	3	39	44	2	10	5	239	376	351	727	112	298	19	17	338	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	47	38	11	0	0	1	6	11	2	2	1	289	413	368	781	79	370	23	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	257	210	49	5	3	2	40	58	2	12	4	233	361	314	675	81	305	23	16	312	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	156	131	33	4	1	2	19	38	3	14	0	252	359	344	703	92	330	24	12	320	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	525	413	95	15	1	4	92	76	11	25	12	230	384	300	684	70	270	14	18	323	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	155	20	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	129	242	155	396	26	190	32	9	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	86	74	16	4	0	2	9	28	2	4	1	216	318	351	669	135	305	33	10	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	192	32	5	2	2	26	85	8	15	2	167	292	245	537	78	267	37	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	235	197	31	6	1	1	31	80	7	10	2	157	294	213	507	56	254	34	13	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	19	17	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	118	211	118	328		202	21	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	229	198	39	5	2	2	29	54	2	10	5	197	306	273	578	76	267	24	13	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	257	222	47	4	3	1	28	74	2	12	4	212	306	270	576	59	300	29	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	156	136	34	4	1	2	14	47	3	14	0	250	333	338	672	88	342	30	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	367	79	17	3	1	32	122	11	33	7	215	298	286	584	71	307	29	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	525	440	98	14	1	3	65	91	11	25	12	223	337	280	617	57	267	17	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	155	20	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	129	242	155	396	26	204	32	9	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	267	49	9	2	5	34	113	10	19	3	184	299	288	587	105	291	36	11	261	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	315	252	57	11	2	6	49	84	10	19	3	226	373	357	730	131	311	27	16	336	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	254	214	33	6	1	1	33	84	7	10	2	154	287	206	493	51	248	33	13	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	254	202	40	8	1	2	45	67	7	10	2	198	362	277	639	79	286	26	18	310	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	276	236	49	7	3	3	35	65	4	12	6	208	320	301	621	93	272	24	13	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	276	226	56	6	3	4	45	55	4	12	6	248	382	354	736	106	310	20	16	341	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	358	81	8	4	3	42	121	5	26	4	226	316	296	612	70	324	29	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	413	341	82	9	4	4	59	96	5	26	4	240	360	326	686	85	315	23	14	315	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	367	79	17	3	1	32	122	11	33	7	215	298	286	584	71	315	29	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	525	440	98	14	1	3	65	91	11	25	12	223	337	280	617	57	271	17	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	525	413	95	15	1	4	92	76	11	25	12	230	384	300	684	70	270	14	18	323	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	154	20	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	130	242	156	397	26	190	32	9	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	268	49	9	2	5	34	113	10	19	3	183	299	287	586	104	277	36	11	261	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	254	212	33	6	1	1	33	84	7	10	2	156	287	208	495	52	250	33	13	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	276	235	49	7	3	3	35	65	4	12	6	209	320	302	622	94	267	24	13	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	363	81	8	4	3	42	121	5	26	4	223	316	292	608	69	316	29	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	370	79	17	3	1	32	122	11	33	7	214	298	284	581	70	307	29	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	525	444	98	14	1	3	65	91	11	25	12	221	337	277	614	56	267	17	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	363	81	8	4	3	42	121	5	26	4	223	316	292	608	69	316	29	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	370	79	17	3	1	32	122	11	33	7	214	298	284	581	70	307	29	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	525	444	98	14	1	3	65	91	11	25	12	221	337	277	614	56	267	17	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	380	329	69	12	2	2	40	86	8	17	6	210	311	277	588	67	275	23	11	276	73	-12	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	75	66	12	2	0	0	8	17	1	3	1	204	305	268	574	64	266	23	11	270	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	42%	336	292	62	11	2	2	35	76	6	15	5	211	310	281	592	70	275	23	10	277	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYM	48%	364	316	68	12	2	3	38	83	7	14	5	211	309	283	592	72	275	23	10	276	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYM	49%	373	325	69	12	2	3	38	86	7	13	5	211	307	284	591	73	275	23	10	275	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	NYM	50%	378	331	70	12	2	3	38	89	6	11	4	210	304	283	587	73	274	24	10	273	71	-13	+1	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	42%	140	121	25	4	1	1	15	32	3	6	2	205	305	272	577	68	267	23	11	271	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYM	48%	173	150	31	5	1	1	18	40	3	7	2	205	303	274	578	69	267	23	10	271	73	-6	+1	-0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYM	49%	184	160	33	6	1	1	19	43	3	6	2	205	301	275	576	70	266	23	10	270	73	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	NYM	50%	190	166	34	6	1	1	19	45	3	5	2	204	299	274	573	70	266	24	10	268	71	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	687	597	123	21	4	4	71	160	12	24	8	206	303	275	578	69	272	23	10	270	68	-22	+2	-2	+7	+15	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	117	20	4	4	67	151	11	23	8	207	303	278	581	71	273	23	10	270	68	-21	+2	-2	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4079	3517	723	118	24	28	433	1044	86	196	60	206	308	277	584	71	281	26	11	269	68	-56	+4	-4	+18	+37	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	115	19	4	4	69	166	14	31	10	205	307	275	582	70	282	26	11	269	68	-21	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#3Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#4Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	761	6	28	212	305	284	+8	+6	0.5	0.5
/162	664	5	25	+7.1	+5.2	0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cairo (OGILVIE)	26	45	35	60	50	209/308/275	66	275	1	11	23%	11%	73	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Dunn 2024 · AAA	27	48	38→40	53→55	53	227/314/302	74	294	6	23	23%	10%	80	-0.2	213/302/302	89	272	8	19	23%	10%	76	-0.4	196/293/279	83	238	9	16	20%	10%	65	-0.9
✕Kenny Wilson 2016 · AAA	26	49→51	39→40	57→60	42	232/284/327	95	310	6	27	26%	6%	73	-0.6	220/283/303	83	307	5	25	28%	7%	68	-1.0	198/266/289	91	302	7	22	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Adam Godwin 2009 · AA	26	51→53	36→30	56→55	47	237/289/301	64	290	3	25	19%	6%	68	-1.0	228/275/306	78	290	4	19	22%	6%	64	-1.3	226/260/291	66	291	2	21	22%	4%	53	-1.0
✕Elih Marrero 2023 · AA	26	44	37→40	53→55	47	208/280/280	72	296	4	23	29%	9%	61	-1.5	215/280/311	96	306	8	21	30%	8%	68	-1.0	210/266/317	107	293	8	22	29%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Delino DeShields 2019 · MLB	26	48→56	39→45	55→65	53	228/312/310	82	295	7	31	23%	10%	80	-0.1	230/308/322	92	304	7	28	24%	10%	82	-0.0	225/308/314	88	303	6	31	25%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Drew Maggi 2015 · AA	26	52→57	36→45	52→60	48	242/307/309	67	303	4	29	20%	7%	78	-0.3	234/295/302	68	298	4	23	21%	7%	72	-0.7	240/300/319	79	320	5	18	25%	6%	74	-0.3
✕D.J. Burt 2022 · AA	26	49→51	39→40	55→65	45	231/291/318	87	321	7	30	29%	8%	74	-0.6	230/296/317	87	303	6	37	24%	8%	76	-0.4	225/297/294	69	292	4	56	22%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2011 · AAA	27	51	38→40	58→55	41	244/285/330	86	313	5	24	23%	5%	74	-0.6	234/276/318	84	314	5	19	26%	5%	68	-1.0	234/270/305	71	311	5	10	25%	4%	60	-0.7
✕Nook Logan 2007 · MLB	27	51	37→40	57→60	47	240/290/319	79	299	4	27	21%	7%	72	-0.7	244/290/335	91	323	5	27	24%	6%	77	-0.3	259/297/337	78	350	0	39	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Luke Williams 2023 · MLB	26	51→44	40→45	56→65	44	239/295/331	92	333	6	31	29%	7%	78	-0.3	217/277/332	115	297	11	33	29%	7%	72	-0.7	198/259/306	108	270	10	38	29%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Ben DeLuzio 2021 · AAA	26	49→50	40→45	54→60	42	230/292/327	97	323	6	23	29%	6%	76	-0.4	219/277/327	108	307	7	25	29%	6%	71	-0.8	207/267/310	102	295	7	30	30%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Yonny Hernández 2024 · MLB	26	49→59	37→30	55→60	56	225/324/301	75	291	4	29	22%	11%	83	+0.1	248/317/318	70	304	4	18	18%	8%	84	+0.1	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Cade Gotta 2018 · AAA	26	49→51	40→45	56→55	44	235/280/332	98	291	7	29	22%	6%	72	-0.7	236/295/341	105	302	7	27	23%	8%	80	-0.1	240/309/352	112	310	6	33	23%	9%	87	+0.1
✕Jacob Young 2024 · MLB	25	52→57	38→40	63→60	47	247/306/329	82	304	4	33	20%	6%	82	-0.0	245/305/331	86	299	6	29	19%	7%	82	-0.0	242/306/331	89	291	7	29	18%	7%	83	+0.1
✕J.T. Arruda 2024 · AA	26	43→42	39→40	56→55	49	202/285/290	88	294	6	24	31%	10%	66	-1.1	209/274/299	90	290	7	20	28%	8%	63	-1.3	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	216/267/304	87	290	6	32	27%	6%	61	-1.5	198/255/279	81	303	6	17	34%	7%	51	-2.2	161/226/226	65	269	3	12	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Jamal Strong 2006 · MLB	27	53→55	39→30	57→55	48	249/310/338	89	309	6	24	21%	7%	85	+0.2	233/304/299	66	289	3	20	19%	8%	74	-0.5	227/304/272	45	282	1	20	18%	8%	66	-0.8
✕Adam Heisler 2014 · AAA	26	44→45	38→40	55	46	211/274/297	86	279	5	20	25%	7%	63	-1.4	222/279/323	101	290	7	15	24%	7%	70	-0.8	236/279/354	118	289	6	17	20%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2018 · AAA	26	48→57	38→40	53→60	45	228/269/304	76	270	5	26	18%	5%	61	-1.5	240/278/326	86	283	6	13	17%	5%	70	-0.9	244/288/323	79	282	6	11	15%	5%	70	-0.6
✕J.D. Orr 2022 · AA	25	51	36→30	54→65	47	235/294/310	75	312	3	24	24%	8%	72	-0.7	214/294/279	65	295	3	37	26%	9%	67	-1.1	199/291/245	46	277	1	51	25%	10%	56	-0.8

Christian Cairo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps