Luis Velasquez

P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #729

ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	36	0	62	1.74	2.63	30.8%	13.2%	—	K 23.3% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.62
2024	23	AANYY	30	2	41	4.57	4.45	28.7%	15.4%	—	K 23.3% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.25
2026	25	MIX4 levels	26	0	31	2.90	2.07	28.5%	10.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 12.4% · FIP 2.95
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	57	0	60	4.78	4.78	23.9%	14.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBNYY	21	0	22	4.76	4.77	23.8%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBNYY	32	0	34	4.78	4.82	23.6%	13.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff65Command30FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSam Gardner (age 26) · Jeff Ames (age 26) · Jesus Pirela (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.9%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6065

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees	11	0	35	161	39	14	1	0%	3.2	16.5%	10.9%	5.6%	0.9%	3.38	3.56	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees	11	0	35	161	39	14	1	0%	3.2	24.2%	8.7%	15.5%	0.6%	3.38	2.44	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	7	0	9	46	7	11	0	0%	1.3	15.2%	23.9%	-8.7%	0.0%	5.00	4.84	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	7	0	9	46	7	11	0	0%	1.3	15.2%	23.9%	-8.7%	0.0%	5.00	5.21	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	1	15	60	22	9	0	12%	1.9	24.9%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	1.76	3.37	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	1	15	60	22	9	0	12%	1.9	36.7%	15.0%	21.7%	0.0%	1.76	1.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	62	250	77	33	2	0%	1.7	23.3%	15.4%	8.0%	1.0%	1.74	3.62	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	62	250	77	33	2	0%	1.7	30.8%	13.2%	17.6%	0.8%	1.74	2.63	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	23.3%	16.9%	6.3%	3.6%	4.57	5.25	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	23.3%	16.9%	6.3%	3.6%	4.57	5.25	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	28.7%	15.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.45	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	0	31	130	37	14	0	0%	1.2	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	0.0%	2.90	2.95	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	0	31	130	37	14	0	0%	1.2	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	0.0%	2.90	2.95	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	0	31	130	37	14	0	0%	1.2	28.5%	10.8%	17.7%	0.0%	2.90	2.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	57	0	60	253	60	37	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	14.5%	9.4%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56	0	59	247	59	35	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.8%	4.76	4.77	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	54	0	57	240	57	33	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.82	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	21	0	22	93	22	13	3	0%	1.0	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.8%	4.76	4.77	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	32	0	34	144	34	20	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	56	33	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	118	25	0%	1.1	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		118	3	193	842	179	127	11	3%	1.6	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	1.3%	2.98	3.93	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	3	200	871	185	132	11	3%	1.6	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	1.3%	2.98	3.93	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.9%	14.5%	2.7%	—	4.79	23.7%	9.8%	115	+0.01	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	89
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	88
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	87
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	86
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	84
Antonio Menendez R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	25	SU	3.67	23.6%	14.2%	1.4%	.292	4.24	18.5%	5.6%	107	+0.57	2.92	250	84
Justin Evans R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	23.6%	14.3%	1.3%	.323	4.80	16.4%	-7.9%	14	+1.17	3.63	105	84
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	23.8%	14.1%	1.08	4.77
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*