Jack White
P
Modesto Nuts
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 38 | 0 | 70 | 318 | 88 | 47 | 5 | 20.5% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | — | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 68 | 32 | 9 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | — | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 67 | 31 | 9 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 66 | 31 | 9 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 65 | 30 | 9 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 29 | 9 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 59 | 28 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 56 | 28 | 8 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | — | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 27 | 8 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | — | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 50 | 26 | 8 | 21.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | — | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | — | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 0 | 70 | 318 | 65 | 55 | 7 | 20.5% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 0 | 200 | 909 | 186 | 157 | 20 | 20.5% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack White (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.53 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 205 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 89 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 87 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 87 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 86 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 85 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 85 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 84 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 84 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 3.1% | .337 | 4.52 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 77 | +0.51 | 3.59 | 364 | 84 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 83 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 5.07 | 24.6% | 16.7% | 74 | +1.74 | 3.19 | 416 | 83 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 83 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 83 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 82 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 82 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $11M | $1M | -$9M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.