Railin Perez

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	39	54	3.81	3.67	25.7%	14.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.40
2025	23	MIX2 levels	42	63	4.41	3.08	26.3%	14.5%	—	K 20.4% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.84
2026	24	AAHOU	46	51	3.53	2.94	29.8%	12.9%	—	K 24.1% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	67	70	4.88	4.88	22.5%	15.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	30	31	4.81	4.80	22.8%	14.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	42	44	4.79	4.80	22.9%	14.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNolan Riggs (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%22.5%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	13	6	50	209	44	19	2	46%	3.8	14.3%	11.4%	3.0%	1.3%	3.60	4.07	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	13	6	50	209	44	19	2	46%	3.8	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	1.0%	3.60	3.00	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	21	0	33	141	38	15	1	0%	1.6	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	0.7%	1.35	3.61	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	21	0	33	141	38	15	1	0%	1.6	27.0%	10.6%	16.3%	0.7%	1.35	2.56	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	0	23	86	31	8	0	0%	1.8	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	0.0%	1.16	2.50	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	0	23	86	31	8	0	0%	1.8	36.0%	9.3%	26.7%	0.0%	1.16	1.47	—
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	0%	1.8	19.9%	15.7%	4.3%	0.5%	3.70	3.68	—
2023	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	0%	1.8	27.0%	13.3%	13.7%	0.4%	3.70	2.69	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.0%	3.81	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.0%	3.81	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	25.7%	14.3%	11.4%	1.6%	3.81	3.67	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	0.7%	4.41	3.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	0.7%	4.41	3.84	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	26.3%	14.5%	11.8%	0.7%	4.41	3.08	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	46	0	51	225	67	29	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	1.6%	3.53	3.74	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	46	0	51	225	67	29	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	1.6%	3.53	3.74	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	46	0	51	225	67	29	3	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.9%	16.9%	1.3%	3.53	2.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	67	0	70	296	67	45	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	2.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	67	0	70	296	67	43	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.6%	8.2%	2.5%	4.81	4.80	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	66	0	69	291	67	42	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.79	4.80	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	282	64	40	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	270	61	39	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.92	4.98	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	31	131	30	19	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.6%	8.2%	2.5%	4.81	4.80	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	42	0	44	186	42	27	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.79	4.80	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	49	0	51	215	49	31	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	49	31	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.92	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	170	107	20	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	2.7%	4.84	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	121	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	2.7%	4.84	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		206	6	331	1459	293	211	16	3%	1.6	20.1%	14.4%	5.6%	1.1%	3.40	3.82	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	4	200	881	177	127	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	14.4%	5.6%	1.1%	3.40	3.82	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Railin Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	22.5%	15.3%	2.5%	—	4.82	22.8%	8.4%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	92
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	90
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	88
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	87
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	87
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	86
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	85
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	527	85
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	85
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	85
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	85
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	84
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	22.7%	14.6%	1.03	4.84
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*