Rafael Escalante

C FCL Twins

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1910ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	20	ROKPIT	121	.226/.405/.355	0	0	50	—	.157/.289/.235
2023	21	ROKPIT	115	.256/.412/.367	2	1	57	—	.192/.298/.283
2025	23	ROKMIN	18	.308/.500/.538	1	0	99	—	.200/.333/.400
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBMIN	200	.203/.295/.311	5	2	74	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBMIN	18	.205/.296/.316	0	0	76	0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBMIN	51	.206/.296/.318	1	0	76	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

CompsBrian O'Keefe (age 25) · William Simoneit (age 25) · Ian Rice (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .292 / .308

PA35

HR1

K%32

BB%11

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Pirates 1	—	112	87	18	5	2	3	15	13	9	2	4	207	378	414	792	207	208	12	13	359	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	111	91	25	5	0	0	15	18	5	4	1	275	405	330	735	55	342	16	14	348	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	121	93	21	8	2	0	24	23	4	0	1	226	405	355	760	129	300	19	20	357	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	115	90	23	4	0	2	23	15	1	1	1	256	412	367	779	111	284	13	20	361	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK	FCL Twins	—	18	13	4	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	308	500	538	1.038	231	375	22	28	460	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	—	112	91	12	3	1	2	11	16	9	2	4	132	288	253	541	121	126	14	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	111	96	16	3	0	0	10	23	5	4	1	167	279	198	477	31	210	21	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	121	102	16	6	1	0	15	31	4	0	1	157	289	235	525	78	220	26	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	115	99	19	3	0	2	14	23	1	1	1	192	298	283	581	91	211	20	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	18	15	3	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	277	33	17	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	—	112	91	12	3	1	2	11	16	9	2	4	132	288	253	541	121	135	14	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 1	—	112	87	18	5	2	3	15	13	9	2	4	207	378	414	792	207	208	12	13	359	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	111	96	16	3	0	0	10	23	5	4	1	167	279	198	477	31	219	21	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	—	111	91	25	5	0	0	15	18	5	4	1	275	405	330	735	55	342	16	14	348	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	121	102	16	6	1	0	15	31	4	0	1	157	289	235	525	78	225	26	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	121	93	21	8	2	0	24	23	4	0	1	226	405	355	760	129	300	19	20	357	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	115	99	19	3	0	2	14	23	1	1	1	192	298	283	581	91	227	20	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	115	90	23	4	0	2	23	15	1	1	1	256	412	367	779	111	284	13	20	361	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	18	15	3	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	250	33	17	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	18	13	4	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	308	500	538	1.038	231	375	22	28	460	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	—	112	91	12	3	1	2	11	16	9	2	4	132	288	253	541	121	126	14	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	—	111	95	16	3	0	0	10	23	5	4	1	168	279	200	479	32	210	21	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	121	101	16	6	1	0	15	31	4	0	1	158	289	238	527	79	220	26	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	115	99	19	3	0	2	14	23	1	1	1	192	298	283	581	91	211	20	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	18	15	3	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	277	33	17	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	18	15	3	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	277	33	17	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	200	175	37	4	1	5	22	64	1	2	1	203	295	311	606	108	287	32	11	278	74	-6	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	30%	59	53	10	1	0	1	6	19	0	0	0	205	296	316	612	111	287	32	10	280	76	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	42%	122	107	22	2	1	3	13	38	1	1	0	206	296	318	614	112	286	31	11	281	76	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	166	147	30	3	1	4	17	51	1	1	0	206	295	318	613	111	286	31	10	280	76	-5	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	30%	18	16	2	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	205	296	316	612	111	287	33	11	280	76	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	42%	51	46	9	1	0	1	5	16	0	0	0	206	296	318	615	112	287	31	10	281	76	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	79	71	15	2	0	2	8	24	0	0	0	206	295	318	613	112	286	30	10	280	76	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	148	133	26	3	0	3	15	46	0	0	0	195	277	286	563	90	274	31	10	280	60	-4	+0	-0	+3	+3	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	114	13	0	13	66	202	0	0	0	195	277	284	561	89	274	31	10	280	60	-19	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	859	741	135	22	4	14	93	218	21	9	7	182	291	279	571	97	236	25	11	257	60	-11	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	103	17	3	11	70	165	16	7	5	184	292	283	576	100	237	25	11	257	60	-19	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 18 PAwOBA .450 → .314 (−135)K% 22.2% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	32.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.78%	÷0.981	×0.620	—	×0.955	16.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.028	×0.820	—	×0.955	25.38%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.979	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.006	×0.780	—	×0.955	8.23%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .450 → .314; ISO .231 → .175; BABIP .375 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 115 PAwOBA .356 → .253 (−103)K% 13.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.04%	÷0.949	×1.440	—	—	19.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.002	×0.620	—	×0.975	12.07%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.61%
Singles /BIP	22.67%	÷0.984	×0.820	×0.950	×0.975	17.49%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷1.026	×0.720	×0.950	×0.975	3.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.720	×0.950	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×0.975	2.19%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .356 → .253; ISO .111 → .087; BABIP .284 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 121 PAwOBA .349 → .242 (−107)K% 19.0% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.01%	÷1.069	×1.440	—	—	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.83%	÷0.988	×0.620	—	×0.985	12.26%
HBP% /PA	3.31%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	2.34%
Singles /BIP	15.71%	÷1.005	×0.820	×0.977	×0.985	12.34%
Doubles /BIP	11.43%	÷1.027	×0.720	×0.977	×0.985	7.71%
Triples /BIP	2.86%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.977	×0.985	1.98%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .349 → .242; ISO .129 → .091; BABIP .300 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL PIT Black · 111 PAwOBA .340 → .218 (−123)K% 16.2% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷0.957	×1.220	—	—	20.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.51%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×0.985	9.03%
HBP% /PA	4.50%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	3.11%
Singles /BIP	27.40%	÷1.034	×0.680	×0.972	×0.985	17.26%
Doubles /BIP	6.85%	÷1.060	×0.600	×0.972	×0.985	3.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.972	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.322	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 107, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .340 → .218; ISO .055 → .030; BABIP .342 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 DSLDSL Pirates 1 · 112 PAwOBA .354 → .231 (−123)K% 11.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.61%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.39%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.45%
HBP% /PA	8.04%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	5.67%
Singles /BIP	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	7.04%
Doubles /BIP	6.76%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	3.88%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	1.55%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.92%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .354 → .231; ISO .207 → .116; BABIP .208 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Escalante (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	201/292/308	107	287	1	0	32%	11%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian O'Keefe 2018 · A	25	41→42	47→50	45→40	45	212/273/345	133	269	15	5	27%	7%	74	-0.5	208/277/340	132	263	14	4	26%	8%	74	-0.5	205/273/347	142	263	18	2	29%	8%	71	-0.5
✕William Simoneit 2022 · A	25	46	44→45	50→45	43	224/291/342	118	314	12	8	31%	8%	80	-0.1	208/283/321	113	306	11	6	33%	8%	73	-0.6	184/264/295	111	281	11	4	36%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/350	141	280	16	3	30%	10%	85	+0.2	200/274/302	102	285	10	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	158/229/219	60	230	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Jakson Reetz 2021 · A	25	42→33	46→55	44→45	42	208/286/332	125	292	14	5	32%	7%	77	-0.3	196/273/349	153	268	18	5	33%	6%	76	-0.4	198/277/386	187	246	23	4	29%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Braxton Fulford 2024 · AA	25	43→41	46→50	49→50	43	213/294/344	130	292	14	9	30%	8%	82	+0.0	212/286/353	141	292	15	11	31%	7%	81	-0.1	202/279/347	145	279	15	13	31%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Nick Cimillo 2024 · A	24	42→37	49→55	47→40	45	211/291/359	149	291	16	5	32%	9%	84	+0.2	206/277/378	172	264	21	5	29%	8%	84	+0.1	191/263/365	174	240	22	3	30%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Matt Liuzza 2009 · A	25	43→42	45	45→30	41	210/272/331	121	308	12	3	34%	7%	70	-0.8	212/287/342	130	307	13	4	33%	9%	79	-0.2	195/288/337	142	273	16	2	32%	11%	75	-0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2024 · A	25	40→47	45	51→50	45	202/283/328	127	268	13	10	28%	8%	75	-0.5	225/294/348	123	279	11	8	22%	7%	82	+0.0	227/297/352	126	275	11	7	21%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Scott Manea 2021 · A	25	40→42	46→45	39→30	41	204/281/329	125	266	14	4	28%	6%	75	-0.5	214/297/320	106	302	10	3	30%	9%	78	-0.3	204/295/299	95	291	10	0	30%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Vito Friscia 2022 · A	25	45	42→45	51→40	44	210/288/314	104	325	10	6	36%	9%	73	-0.6	211/294/332	121	308	12	4	32%	10%	79	-0.2	193/284/314	122	272	12	0	31%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Zach Wright 2015 · A	25	42→44	44→45	45→40	41	208/273/319	111	295	13	5	33%	7%	68	-1.0	201/275/312	111	287	10	8	32%	7%	68	-1.0	151/249/258	106	210	8	9	30%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2024 · AA	25	43→38	46→45	49→45	43	212/287/341	128	289	13	5	30%	7%	79	-0.2	201/276/303	102	266	10	8	27%	7%	66	-1.1	163/244/240	77	216	8	6	27%	6%	38	-2.1
✕Jaxx Groshans 2022 · A	24	46	47→50	47→30	46	228/292/362	134	300	15	4	28%	8%	84	+0.2	198/263/320	122	284	13	5	33%	8%	65	-1.2	121/197/239	117	168	13	0	36%	8%	20	-1.5
✕Ryan Ortiz 2013 · AA	25	41	43→45	48→40	50	201/289/307	105	266	11	5	27%	10%	72	-0.7	199/288/295	96	278	8	4	29%	10%	69	-0.9	187/284/271	85	264	7	0	29%	10%	59	-0.8
✕Wade Wass 2016 · A	24	43	46→50	45	42	211/287/345	134	309	13	3	34%	8%	80	-0.2	204/280/339	135	318	15	9	38%	7%	76	-0.4	194/275/334	140	305	17	11	39%	7%	71	-0.4
✕Dusty Brown 2006 · A	24	43	45	44→30	45	215/278/336	122	282	13	5	28%	8%	74	-0.6	219/275/334	115	288	12	3	27%	7%	72	-0.7	231/294/342	111	311	11	0	28%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Luke Berryhill 2023 · AA	25	46→43	46→45	45	43	214/303/344	130	335	14	7	37%	9%	86	+0.3	210/294/330	120	339	13	9	38%	10%	79	-0.2	195/286/309	114	321	12	10	39%	11%	67	-0.5
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2018 · A	25	40→36	47→50	46→50	37	204/264/341	138	292	15	11	34%	6%	70	-0.8	219/295/368	149	305	17	8	32%	8%	88	+0.4	214/313/385	172	279	23	2	30%	11%	101	+0.5
✕Wynston Sawyer 2017 · A	25	46	42→45	46→45	49	221/299/327	106	277	9	6	23%	8%	80	-0.2	220/291/325	105	291	8	5	26%	7%	76	-0.4	211/274/308	97	288	7	1	28%	5%	62	-0.4
✕Logan Driscoll 2023 · A	25	41→46	45	48→40	41	205/269/325	120	285	13	6	32%	7%	68	-1.0	226/281/343	117	304	11	5	28%	6%	76	-0.4	230/288/345	115	310	11	3	28%	6%	77	-0.2