Luke Berryhill — OGILVIE

Luke BerryhillC Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 227 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 230 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .292 / .338

PA230

HR5

K%33

BB%9

ISO129

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	3 teams	—	298	255	51	13	0	8	26	124	14	5	2	200	308	345	654	145	341	42	9	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	3 teams	—	298	244	72	20	0	15	37	90	14	5	2	295	417	561	978	266	401	30	12	424	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	432	378	73	15	0	9	37	176	11	5	2	193	284	304	588	111	322	41	9	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	432	352	90	18	0	12	63	122	11	5	2	256	385	409	794	153	348	28	15	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	307	268	50	9	2	7	37	134	2	5	1	187	290	313	603	127	339	44	12	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	307	250	57	9	3	8	55	104	2	5	1	228	371	384	755	156	355	34	18	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	221	200	34	6	0	5	18	88	2	5	0	170	245	275	520	105	271	40	8	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	221	192	45	8	0	6	26	69	2	5	0	234	332	370	702	135	333	31	12	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	HOU	—	230	204	43	8	1	5	22	75	2	4	1	211	294	333	627	123	302	33	10	287	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	HOU	33%	267	238	51	10	1	6	25	85	2	5	1	214	294	340	635	126	300	32	9	289	79	-6	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2028	30	MLB	HOU	46%	303	269	57	11	1	7	28	95	3	5	1	212	293	338	632	126	299	31	9	289	79	-7	+1	-2	+5	+9	0.5
2029	31	MLB	HOU	54%	292	260	56	11	1	7	27	91	3	4	1	215	297	346	643	131	296	31	9	287	77	-7	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.4
2027	29	MLB	HOU	33%	87	78	16	3	0	2	8	28	1	2	0	205	287	321	608	115	303	32	9	286	77	-2	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.2
2028	30	MLB	HOU	46%	139	124	27	5	1	3	13	44	1	2	0	218	297	347	644	129	301	32	9	285	77	-4	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
2029	31	MLB	HOU	54%	156	139	31	6	1	4	15	49	1	2	0	223	303	367	670	144	299	31	10	283	75	-4	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	382	341	74	14	2	9	36	121	3	6	0	217	297	349	646	132	305	32	9	284	76	-10	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	125	24	3	15	61	206	5	10	0	216	295	345	640	129	304	32	9	284	76	-18	+2	-5	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	2350	2072	415	83	6	54	220	868	39	38	9	200	289	324	613	124	310	37	9	277	70	-79	+4	-6	+42	+67	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	115	23	2	15	61	240	11	11	2	201	290	326	616	126	311	37	9	277	70	-22	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	41	32	10	1	0	0	7	15	2	0	1	312	463	344	807	31	588	37	17	385	153	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	110	94	26	10	0	5	10	38	5	1	1	277	376	543	919	266	404	35	9	399	163	+8	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2021	23	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	147	118	36	9	0	10	20	37	7	4	0	305	434	636	1.070	331	356	25	14	455	206	+18	+1	—	—	+4	2.3
2022	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	432	352	90	18	0	12	63	122	11	5	2	256	385	409	794	153	348	28	15	357	132	+15	+0	—	—	+12	2.8
2023	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	307	250	57	9	3	8	55	104	2	5	1	228	371	384	755	156	355	34	18	346	123	+8	+1	—	—	+9	1.8
2024	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	221	192	45	8	0	6	26	69	2	5	0	234	332	370	702	135	333	31	12	319	102	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	406	10	6	214	292	344	+7	+4	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	16	10	214	292	344	+11.9	+6.5	1.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Berryhill (OGILVIE)	28	20	44	50	49	210/292/338	128	302	5	4	33%	9%	78	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	36→43	49→50	46→40	50	190/284/340	150	262	16	6	32%	11%	75	-0.0	214/291/357	143	326	16	7	36%	10%	82	+0.5	207/287/340	133	326	15	4	38%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	52→55	46→40	48	203/292/382	179	269	18	6	31%	10%	89	+1.0	195/284/360	165	248	20	6	29%	10%	81	+0.4	169/268/327	158	201	23	3	29%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	40	47→50	48→40	48	204/290/339	135	259	14	5	26%	9%	78	+0.2	218/297/342	124	289	13	7	27%	9%	81	+0.4	195/295/265	70	263	10	0	27%	12%	58	-0.2
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	41	48→45	46→30	43	210/274/348	137	279	17	4	30%	8%	72	-0.2	197/260/308	111	344	12	5	43%	7%	56	-1.3	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Andrew Susac 2018 · MLB	28	35→40	48→50	47→30	42	188/252/323	135	255	17	3	33%	8%	56	-1.3	206/283/351	145	293	17	8	33%	9%	77	+0.1	200/295/343	143	281	18	0	33%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Brandon Larson 2005 · MLB	29	42	47→50	46→45	52	212/300/344	133	268	15	9	26%	10%	82	+0.5	229/286/389	160	293	20	6	28%	6%	88	+0.9	222/268/381	159	280	22	4	29%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Carson Blair 2017 · MLB	27	43	46→50	46→30	40	205/275/332	127	333	14	4	40%	8%	68	-0.5	205/269/323	118	349	12	7	42%	7%	63	-0.8	146/214/252	105	278	12	0	49%	6%	19	-0.9
✕Justin Leone 2006 · MLB	29	43→41	46→50	48→55	46	212/287/341	129	296	13	8	31%	9%	76	+0.0	211/288/355	144	273	17	13	28%	9%	80	+0.4	202/286/351	149	254	18	16	27%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Alex Jackson 2023 · MLB	27	40→35	51→60	50→30	39	203/279/366	163	298	19	6	37%	7%	80	+0.4	204/265/374	170	269	21	4	32%	6%	76	+0.0	186/246/363	177	237	23	1	32%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	50	48→45	42	207/264/358	151	266	19	10	30%	7%	70	-0.3	224/280/372	148	286	19	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	36→33	48→45	50→55	39	191/255/325	133	271	17	14	35%	6%	59	-1.1	215/291/341	126	313	13	16	33%	8%	78	+0.2	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	46	50	51→50	42	228/293/393	165	308	16	14	30%	7%	92	+1.2	219/280/368	149	328	16	9	36%	6%	79	+0.3	192/246/312	120	316	14	5	42%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA	28	38	49→50	45→40	39	200/259/341	142	281	17	5	35%	7%	64	-0.8	210/268/319	109	310	10	9	33%	7%	62	-0.9	179/240/258	79	274	6	4	35%	7%	32	-0.7
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	42	220/270/377	157	256	20	12	24%	5%	79	+0.3	219/286/373	154	263	20	9	24%	7%	84	+0.6	177/272/313	136	213	19	8	27%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Matt Macri 2010 · MLB	28	41→38	48→55	43→45	41	212/261/361	149	264	15	7	26%	6%	70	-0.3	210/260/343	133	270	14	5	27%	6%	65	-0.7	204/255/332	128	261	13	2	27%	6%	58	-0.8