Luke BerryhillC
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 28
R/R
6'0" / 227 lbs
AAA
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.1 · 2026
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .271 / .309
PA230
HR5
K%39
BB%9
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
42→42
SPD
50→50
EYE
50→50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-2M | $-5M | -$3M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | 3 teams | 298 | 256 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 122 | 14 | 5 | 2 | .207 | .312 | .363 | .675 | .156 | .344 | 41 | 8 | .293 | 83 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 432 | 374 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 165 | 11 | 5 | 2 | .201 | .298 | .318 | .616 | .118 | .317 | 38 | 9 | .277 | 70 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 307 | 267 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 134 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .172 | .280 | .281 | .561 | .109 | .315 | 44 | 12 | .260 | 57 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 221 | 200 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 0 | .175 | .250 | .280 | .530 | .105 | .280 | 40 | 8 | .236 | 39 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 230 | 205 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .190 | .272 | .307 | .579 | .117 | .299 | 39 | 9 | .266 | 62 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | HOU | 267 | 238 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 99 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .193 | .275 | .315 | .591 | .122 | .298 | 37 | 9 | .270 | 65 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | HOU | 303 | 269 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 111 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .197 | .280 | .320 | .600 | .123 | .296 | 37 | 9 | .271 | 66 | -12 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | HOU | 292 | 260 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 106 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .196 | .279 | .319 | .599 | .123 | .294 | 36 | 9 | .270 | 65 | -12 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 52% | HOU | 273 | 244 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 99 | 2 | 3 | 0 | .193 | .273 | .311 | .585 | .119 | .292 | 36 | 9 | .267 | 62 | -12 | +1 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 70% | HOU | 241 | 215 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .186 | .268 | .298 | .565 | .112 | .291 | 37 | 9 | .261 | 58 | -11 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 87% | HOU | 198 | 176 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .188 | .270 | .301 | .572 | .114 | .289 | 38 | 9 | .255 | 53 | -10 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3062 | 2704 | 518 | 97 | 9 | 70 | 288 | 1177 | 45 | 45 | 8 | .192 | .280 | .312 | .592 | .120 | .304 | 38 | 9 | .268 | 63 | -128 | +6 | -19 | +55 | +87 | 0.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 574 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 250 | 10 | 10 | 2 | .193 | .283 | .315 | .598 | .122 | .307 | 38 | 9 | .268 | 63 | -27 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +18 | 0.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 41 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .312 | .463 | .344 | .807 | .031 | .588 | 37 | 17 | .385 | 153 | +2 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 110 | 94 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .277 | .376 | .543 | .919 | .266 | .404 | 35 | 9 | .399 | 163 | +8 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 1.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 147 | 118 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 0 | .305 | .434 | .636 | 1.070 | .331 | .356 | 25 | 14 | .455 | 206 | +18 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 2.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 432 | 352 | 90 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 63 | 122 | 11 | 5 | 2 | .256 | .385 | .409 | .794 | .153 | .348 | 28 | 15 | .357 | 132 | +15 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 307 | 250 | 57 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 104 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .228 | .371 | .384 | .755 | .156 | .355 | 34 | 18 | .346 | 123 | +8 | +1 | — | — | +9 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 221 | 192 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 69 | 2 | 5 | 0 | .234 | .332 | .370 | .702 | .135 | .333 | 31 | 12 | .319 | 102 | +1 | +1 | — | — | +6 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Luke Berryhill (OGILVIE) | 28 | 20 | 42 | 50 | 50 | .189/.271/.309 | .120 | .299 | 5 | 4 | 39% | 9% | 62 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Cody Bohanek 2022 · AAA |
27 | 37→36 | 43→40 | 48→50 | 40 | .177/.276/.289 | .112 | .295 | 10 | 15 | 40% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .186/.277/.284 | .098 | .306 | 8 | 15 | 38% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .151/.251/.216 | .064 | .271 | 3 | 16 | 40% | 8% | 27 | -1.6 |
|
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB |
28 | 37→39 | 46→50 | 46→45 | 50 | .191/.285/.319 | .128 | .261 | 14 | 9 | 31% | 11% | 70 | -0.3 | .189/.283/.313 | .124 | .261 | 14 | 10 | 31% | 11% | 68 | -0.5 | .168/.270/.287 | .119 | .228 | 14 | 8 | 31% | 11% | 54 | -0.9 |
|
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA |
27 | 36 | 44→45 | 46→45 | 43 | .181/.257/.295 | .114 | .275 | 12 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .181/.267/.319 | .138 | .277 | 18 | 6 | 38% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .145/.237/.274 | .129 | .209 | 19 | 3 | 39% | 10% | 37 | -0.8 |
|
✕Grayson Greiner 2022 · MLB |
29 | 40 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 40 | .200/.262/.313 | .113 | .299 | 13 | 4 | 36% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .195/.259/.307 | .112 | .360 | 12 | 6 | 45% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .163/.227/.268 | .105 | .321 | 15 | 3 | 51% | 7% | 28 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA |
27 | 35→30 | 47→45 | 50→45 | 43 | .183/.260/.318 | .135 | .266 | 15 | 9 | 36% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .181/.252/.301 | .120 | .260 | 14 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .130/.207/.227 | .097 | .172 | 15 | 8 | 34% | 8% | 11 | -2.0 |
|
✕Brandon Hicks 2014 · MLB |
28 | 40 | 49→50 | 48→50 | 37 | .202/.264/.349 | .147 | .315 | 17 | 10 | 40% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .187/.262/.317 | .130 | .294 | 15 | 7 | 39% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .163/.247/.278 | .115 | .258 | 14 | 4 | 40% | 9% | 40 | -1.2 |
|
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA |
28 | 38 | 48→50 | 45→40 | 40 | .198/.259/.337 | .138 | .279 | 17 | 5 | 35% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .207/.265/.317 | .110 | .307 | 10 | 8 | 34% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .179/.239/.258 | .079 | .273 | 6 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 31 | -0.7 |
|
✕John Nelson 2007 · AAA |
28 | 34→35 | 47→45 | 48→45 | 37 | .181/.241/.311 | .129 | .276 | 16 | 9 | 39% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .189/.246/.332 | .143 | .280 | 19 | 8 | 38% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .158/.218/.302 | .144 | .215 | 22 | 0 | 38% | 6% | 36 | -1.3 |
|
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA |
28 | 39→45 | 45 | 49→55 | 41 | .197/.268/.316 | .118 | .283 | 13 | 17 | 34% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .210/.295/.327 | .117 | .326 | 12 | 25 | 36% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .199/.294/.308 | .110 | .316 | 12 | 32 | 37% | 10% | 68 | -0.2 |
|
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA |
28 | 35→41 | 45→50 | 49→55 | 40 | .183/.244/.299 | .117 | .258 | 13 | 14 | 34% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .185/.247/.272 | .087 | .266 | 8 | 15 | 31% | 7% | 41 | -2.3 | .158/.224/.222 | .065 | .226 | 5 | 19 | 31% | 6% | 16 | -2.0 |
|
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2023 · MLB |
27 | 37 | 46→40 | 47→30 | 38 | .186/.270/.313 | .127 | .292 | 13 | 4 | 38% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .190/.267/.321 | .131 | .292 | 15 | 8 | 38% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .166/.225/.303 | .137 | .244 | 18 | 4 | 39% | 5% | 36 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jason Martinson 2017 · AAA |
28 | 38→41 | 44→50 | 53→50 | 34 | .189/.242/.304 | .115 | .298 | 12 | 12 | 40% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .188/.244/.306 | .118 | .318 | 13 | 8 | 42% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .146/.206/.239 | .093 | .257 | 13 | 0 | 46% | 6% | 11 | -1.5 |
|
✕Logan Warmoth 2023 · AAA |
27 | 42→39 | 43→45 | 51→55 | 41 | .202/.279/.316 | .113 | .314 | 11 | 19 | 37% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .197/.275/.297 | .100 | .290 | 10 | 22 | 33% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .177/.264/.256 | .079 | .258 | 8 | 25 | 32% | 9% | 44 | -1.3 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2022 · AAA |
27 | 38 | 47→45 | 48→40 | 33 | .198/.238/.325 | .127 | .287 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 4% | 50 | -1.7 | .216/.269/.301 | .085 | .295 | 5 | 5 | 27% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.285/.301 | .075 | .297 | 3 | 2 | 23% | 6% | 61 | -0.4 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA |
28 | 39→37 | 49→50 | 51→50 | 36 | .205/.244/.348 | .143 | .271 | 17 | 12 | 31% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .225/.280/.351 | .126 | .287 | 13 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .235/.302/.339 | .104 | .296 | 10 | 6 | 23% | 6% | 79 | +0.1 |
|
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA |
27 | 34→30 | 47→50 | 50 | 44 | .181/.258/.318 | .137 | .259 | 15 | 13 | 35% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .189/.267/.321 | .132 | .273 | 16 | 12 | 35% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .160/.249/.296 | .136 | .218 | 19 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |
|
✕Andrew Susac 2018 · MLB |
28 | 37→39 | 48→50 | 47→30 | 43 | .197/.261/.333 | .136 | .264 | 16 | 3 | 31% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .206/.283/.350 | .144 | .290 | 17 | 7 | 33% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .198/.293/.339 | .141 | .281 | 18 | 0 | 34% | 11% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Madison Stokes 2023 · AAA |
27 | 38→36 | 43→45 | 49→40 | 35 | .186/.243/.299 | .112 | .305 | 11 | 9 | 41% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .192/.271/.300 | .108 | .306 | 9 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .176/.270/.275 | .099 | .273 | 8 | 6 | 35% | 10% | 49 | -1.3 |
|
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA |
28 | 38 | 44→45 | 48→30 | 43 | .197/.260/.308 | .111 | .260 | 13 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .211/.260/.328 | .117 | .271 | 13 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .210/.254/.324 | .114 | .266 | 12 | 1 | 25% | 5% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Dave Wallace 2008 · AAA |
28 | 34 | 47→45 | 43→40 | 42 | .182/.258/.310 | .127 | .254 | 16 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .209/.277/.329 | .120 | .281 | 13 | 6 | 29% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .205/.282/.307 | .102 | .267 | 11 | 0 | 26% | 8% | 64 | -0.2 |