Anthony Molina

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MLBCOL	35	1	60	6.79	3.87	15.5%	8.0%	0.5
2025	23	MIX2 levels	32	16	104	6.81	5.31	15.0%	7.2%	0.1	K 13.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 5.03
2026	24	MIX2 levels	30	17	97	3.70	3.36	24.0%	7.2%	2.4	K 21.7% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	44	0	46	4.97	4.62	18.6%	7.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBSF	49	0	51	4.75	4.60	18.8%	7.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBSF	38	0	40	4.68	4.63	18.8%	7.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs65

K%53

Form4.38 ERA (proj 4.97) · K 27.7% (proj 18.6%) · BB 5.0% (proj 7.4%) ▲▲ last 60d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Sergio Mitre (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.97

FIP4.62

K%18.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	8	53	231	31	9	1	57%	3.8	9.1%	4.9%	4.3%	0.6%	3.23	3.28	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	8	53	231	31	9	1	57%	3.8	13.4%	3.9%	9.5%	0.4%	3.23	2.68	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	3	31	124	36	8	2	25%	2.6	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.4%	2.61	3.76	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	3	31	124	36	8	2	25%	2.6	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	1.6%	2.61	2.39	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	96	396	85	19	10	24%	3.3	15.6%	5.6%	10.0%	3.3%	3.10	4.31	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	7	96	396	85	19	10	24%	3.3	21.5%	4.8%	16.7%	2.5%	3.10	3.28	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	122	548	102	38	13	96%	4.4	15.5%	7.0%	8.6%	2.5%	4.50	4.04	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	122	548	102	38	13	96%	4.4	18.6%	6.9%	11.7%	2.4%	4.50	3.75	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.7%	6.79	3.72	+0.6
2024	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.7%	6.79	3.72	+0.6
2024	22	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.9%	6.79	3.87	+0.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	4.1%	6.81	5.03	+0.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	4.1%	6.81	5.03	+0.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	4.2%	6.81	5.31	+0.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	21.7%	6.7%	15.0%	2.7%	3.70	3.62	+2.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	21.7%	6.7%	15.0%	2.7%	3.70	3.62	+2.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	2.5%	3.70	3.36	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	7	128	560	96	34	20	11%	2.1	17.1%	6.1%	11.1%	3.6%	6.17	4.42	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	44	0	46	194	36	14	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.4%	11.3%	3.2%	4.97	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	54	228	43	17	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.60	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	40	0	42	179	34	13	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.63	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	34	0	36	152	28	11	5	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.5%	11.2%	3.4%	4.70	4.72	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	27	0	28	120	22	9	4	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	20	0	21	90	16	7	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.08	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	49	0	51	215	41	16	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.60	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	32	12	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.63	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	32	0	34	144	27	11	5	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.5%	11.2%	3.4%	4.70	4.72	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	26	0	27	114	21	9	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	15	7	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	7	301	1289	231	89	45	3%	1.3	17.9%	6.9%	11.0%	3.5%	5.36	4.36	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	5	200	857	154	59	30	3%	1.3	17.9%	6.9%	11.0%	3.5%	5.36	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		180	79	563	2462	388	162	67	44%	3.1	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.10	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	28	200	875	138	58	24	44%	3.1	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.10	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 63 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.86 (+0.33)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.62%	—	×0.860	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 70 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.59 (+0.19)K% 15.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.04%	—	×0.860	12.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.85%	—	×0.900	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.017	×1.100	2.87%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 66 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.49 (+0.52)K% 17.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.69%	—	×0.810	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.100	7.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.087	×1.200	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 56 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.52 (+0.11)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.69%	—	×0.860	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×0.900	6.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.137	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 89 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.31 (+0.82)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.770	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.86%	—	×1.150	5.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.020	×1.250	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 7 IPFIP 0.34 → 1.27 (+0.93)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.740	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.180	4.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.943	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 0.34 → 1.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Rays · 31 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.76 (+1.41)K% 29.0% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.680	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.948	×1.400	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Rays 1 · 53 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.28 (+0.58)K% 13.4% → 9.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.42%	—	×0.680	9.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.90%	—	×1.250	4.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.43%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.61%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Molina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	18.6%	7.4%	3.2%	—	4.64	18.8%	11.4%	132	+0.02	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75
Sergio Mitre R 2006 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	16.4%	9.0%	3.7%	.276	3.91	12.4%	6.8%	201	-0.98	3.55	602	75
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	74
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	74
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	73
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	73
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	72
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	71
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	71
Liam Hendriks R 2014 · 3.61 FIP	25	SP-	3.61	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.318	2.65	27.2%	21.8%	193	-0.96	0.63	684	71
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	71
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	71
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	71
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	70
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	70
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	70
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	70
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	40	18.0%	7.1%	1.33	5.29
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Brandon Maurer ('18)	1.9	62	19.9%	7.8%	1.14	5.36
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*