Jairo Iriarte — OGILVIE

Jairo Iriarte P Charlotte Knights

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%18.4%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—40

CMD3540

K†4550

FB (46%)

CH (14%)

SL (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	5	35	157	21	14	4	42%	2.9	9.1%	11.1%	-2.1%	3.6%	3.31	5.70	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	5	35	157	21	14	4	42%	2.9	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	2.5%	3.31	4.57	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	145	34	13	6	50%	2.5	16.3%	10.9%	5.4%	6.5%	11.40	6.66	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	30	145	34	13	6	50%	2.5	23.4%	9.0%	14.5%	4.1%	11.40	4.73	—
2022	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	21	18	91	409	109	42	13	86%	4.3	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	4.4%	5.12	5.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	21	18	91	409	109	42	13	86%	4.3	26.7%	10.3%	16.4%	3.2%	5.12	3.94	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	90	385	128	45	4	78%	3.3	26.1%	13.2%	12.9%	1.5%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	90	385	128	45	4	78%	3.3	26.1%	13.2%	12.9%	1.5%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	90	385	128	45	4	78%	3.3	33.2%	11.7%	21.6%	1.0%	3.49	2.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	1.7%	3.61	3.95	+1.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	1.7%	3.61	3.95	+1.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	1.2%	3.61	3.33	+2.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.4%	7.12	5.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.4%	7.12	5.34	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	21.7%	16.1%	5.7%	3.9%	7.12	5.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	30	6	8	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	26.7%	-6.7%	0.0%	1.50	5.10	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	45	0	64	269	64	28	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	10.2%	9.4%	2.1%	2.52	3.90	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	45	0	64	269	64	28	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	10.2%	9.4%	2.1%	2.52	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	17	0	24	101	26	11	2	0%	1.4	25.7%	10.9%	14.9%	2.0%	2.28	3.39	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CWS	28	0	41	168	38	17	3	0%	1.5	22.6%	10.1%	12.5%	1.8%	2.66	3.45	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	5	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.3%	4.1%	2.8%	5.27	5.27	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	71	296	69	32	6	—	—	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	1.9%	2.76	4.02	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	147	0	154	650	128	83	18	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.98	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	147	0	154	650	133	81	18	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	144	0	152	640	131	78	18	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	140	0	147	621	127	76	19	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.3%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.95	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	134	0	140	593	120	74	19	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.1%	5.01	5.08	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	126	0	132	558	111	71	19	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.16	5.25	-1.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	74	312	62	40	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.98	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	102	0	107	452	93	56	13	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	114	0	120	507	104	62	15	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	119	0	125	528	108	65	16	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.3%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.95	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	118	0	124	524	106	65	16	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.1%	5.01	5.08	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	113	0	119	502	100	64	17	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.16	5.25	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		644	0	676	2860	579	362	85	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.63	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	846	171	107	25	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		183	77	491	2159	417	262	62	42%	2.7	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.52	4.58	-4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	31	200	879	170	107	25	42%	2.7	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.52	4.58	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jairo Iriarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	18.4%	14.3%	2.8%	—	4.91	20.2%	7.7%	459	-0.36	—	—	—
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	68
Alan Busenitz R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SW	4.25	14.5%	8.1%	2.5%	.372	3.45	21.4%	14.4%	193	-0.80	2.92	436	67
Tyler Thornburg R 2015 · 5.59 FIP	26	SW	5.59	15.4%	8.9%	4.9%	.295	3.65	28.7%	19.3%	104	-1.94	2.56	301	67
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	67
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	66
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	65
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	65
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	64
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	64
Cale Coshow R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	14.3%	13.3%	1.8%	.287	4.05	23.6%	13.6%	126	-0.51	3.08	377	64
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.69	23.2%	9.9%	100	-2.06	3.37	261	64
Mike Shawaryn R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	24	SW	5.25	19.7%	13.3%	3.9%	.279	4.69	23.9%	-4.6%	12	-0.56	3.51	406	64
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	63
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	63
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	63
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	63
Sandy Báez R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	24	SW	5.61	15.3%	11.2%	4.3%	.299	4.24	14.9%	1.0%	22	-1.37	3.17	342	63
Carson Fulmer R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP-	5.31	17.9%	14.3%	3.5%	.303	4.03	23.6%	10.4%	128	-1.28	3.88	899	63
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	63
Cody Martin R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	25	SW	4.58	19.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	4.25	19.9%	11.8%	277	-0.33	3.56	402	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	147	19.9%	12.8%	1.14	5.03
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25