Jairo Iriarte
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 152 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.34
FIP5.34
K%18.9%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%3.2%
ROS IP152
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 195 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (46%)
CH (14%)
SL (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 5 | 35 | 157 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 42% | 2.9 | 9.1% | 11.1% | -2.1% | 3.6% | 3.31 | 5.70 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 5 | 35 | 157 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 42% | 2.9 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.31 | 4.57 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 30 | 145 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 50% | 2.5 | 16.3% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 11.40 | 7.55 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 30 | 145 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 50% | 2.5 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 4.1% | 11.40 | 4.73 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 21 | 18 | 91 | 409 | 109 | 42 | 13 | 86% | 4.3 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.12 | 5.56 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 21 | 18 | 91 | 409 | 109 | 42 | 13 | 86% | 4.3 | 26.7% | 10.3% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 3.94 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 90 | 385 | 128 | 45 | 4 | 78% | 3.3 | 26.1% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 1.9% | 3.49 | 3.62 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 90 | 385 | 128 | 45 | 4 | 78% | 3.3 | 33.2% | 11.7% | 21.6% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.34 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 132 | 564 | 128 | 65 | 7 | 76% | 4.6 | 18.5% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 1.8% | 3.61 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 132 | 564 | 128 | 65 | 7 | 76% | 4.6 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 3.61 | 3.33 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 5 | 48 | 230 | 50 | 37 | 9 | 14% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 17.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 7.12 | 5.20 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 5 | 48 | 230 | 50 | 37 | 9 | 14% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 16.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 7.12 | 5.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 29 | 0 | 43 | 179 | 45 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 2.28 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 145 | 0 | 152 | 642 | 121 | 101 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 195 | 821 | 166 | 122 | 19 | — | — | 20.3% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 4.97 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 147 | 0 | 154 | 650 | 131 | 90 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.02 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 147 | 0 | 154 | 650 | 135 | 87 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.97 | 4.92 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 144 | 0 | 152 | 640 | 133 | 84 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 98 | 0 | 103 | 435 | 90 | 58 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.97 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 112 | 0 | 118 | 498 | 104 | 66 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 283 | 0 | 297 | 1259 | 260 | 173 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.57 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 175 | 116 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 167 | 77 | 470 | 2069 | 405 | 263 | 63 | 46% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 33 | 200 | 880 | 172 | 112 | 27 | 46% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jairo Iriarte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 18.9% | 15.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.95 | 20.6% | 7.1% | 459 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 68 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 66 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 66 |
| Austin Vernon R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.61 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 4.1% | .325 | 3.74 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 100 | -1.87 | 3.40 | 261 | 65 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.10 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 3.98 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 128 | -1.12 | 3.84 | 879 | 65 |
| Owen White R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 4.0% | .312 | 4.10 | 16.5% | 3.5% | 81 | -1.19 | 3.00 | 402 | 65 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.96 | 19.0% | 14.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.52 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 42 | -0.44 | 4.52 | 366 | 64 |
| Mike Shawaryn R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 13.3% | 3.8% | .279 | 4.69 | 23.9% | -4.6% | 12 | -0.49 | 3.34 | 406 | 64 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 64 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 63 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .372 | 3.46 | 21.4% | 14.4% | 193 | -0.82 | 2.86 | 436 | 63 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 63 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 63 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 63 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 14.3% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.02 | 23.6% | 13.6% | 126 | -0.53 | 3.16 | 377 | 63 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 62 |
| Sandy Báez R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.42 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .299 | 4.33 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 22 | -1.09 | 2.95 | 342 | 62 |
| Robinson Piña R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.47 | 15.8% | 14.6% | 1.6% | .294 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 195 | -0.48 | 3.24 | 661 | 62 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 62 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 153 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 1.05 | 5.08 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |