Albert Fabian
OF San Antonio Missions| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+SD | 105 | .256/.362/.400 | 2 | 2 | 68 | — | .213/.295/.340 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 282 | .246/.324/.377 | 7 | 3 | 59 | — | .211/.270/.313 |
| 2026 | 24 | AASD | 429 | .268/.335/.432 | 12 | 12 | 74 | — | .228/.280/.362 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBSD | 4 | .225/.279/.349 | 0 | 0 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBSD | 78 | .226/.281/.352 | 2 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBSD | 117 | .225/.282/.352 | 3 | 2 | 80 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 166 | 139 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 364 | 381 | 745 | 137 | 308 | 20 | 14 | 339 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 308 | 261 | 569 | 43 | 385 | 38 | 12 | 269 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 114 | 106 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 202 | 292 | 494 | 151 | 186 | 38 | 4 | 224 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 276 | 241 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 68 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 278 | 365 | 502 | 867 | 224 | 337 | 25 | 11 | 379 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 159 | 140 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 287 | 336 | 622 | 136 | 247 | 26 | 10 | 280 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 264 | 236 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 267 | 332 | 504 | 836 | 237 | 285 | 19 | 6 | 360 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 90 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 256 | 362 | 400 | 762 | 144 | 304 | 18 | 13 | 346 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 200 | 177 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 249 | 332 | 379 | 710 | 130 | 287 | 18 | 10 | 321 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 57 | 52 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 288 | 351 | 462 | 812 | 173 | 333 | 19 | 7 | 361 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 200 | 174 | 374 | 43 | 158 | 16 | 8 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 380 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 80 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 268 | 335 | 432 | 767 | 163 | 301 | 19 | 8 | 333 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 166 | 146 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 158 | 255 | 240 | 494 | 82 | 200 | 25 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 167 | 359 | 42 | 306 | 54 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 114 | 107 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 158 | 215 | 373 | 112 | 165 | 48 | 4 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 276 | 250 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 95 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 204 | 274 | 364 | 638 | 160 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 159 | 145 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 229 | 283 | 512 | 117 | 212 | 32 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 264 | 242 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 71 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 259 | 368 | 626 | 161 | 240 | 27 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 94 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 213 | 295 | 340 | 636 | 128 | 260 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 200 | 183 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 219 | 281 | 322 | 604 | 104 | 257 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 57 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 228 | 278 | 506 | 93 | 246 | 28 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 390 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 228 | 280 | 362 | 641 | 133 | 261 | 23 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 166 | 146 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 158 | 255 | 240 | 494 | 82 | 212 | 25 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 166 | 139 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 364 | 381 | 745 | 137 | 308 | 20 | 14 | 339 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 167 | 359 | 42 | 300 | 54 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Padres | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 308 | 261 | 569 | 43 | 385 | 38 | 12 | 269 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 357 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 151 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 174 | 240 | 319 | 559 | 146 | 255 | 39 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 347 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 111 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 236 | 317 | 438 | 755 | 202 | 297 | 28 | 9 | 334 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 387 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 123 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 245 | 331 | 576 | 142 | 236 | 29 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 423 | 376 | 91 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 91 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 315 | 441 | 756 | 199 | 272 | 22 | 8 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 94 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 213 | 295 | 340 | 636 | 128 | 269 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 90 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 256 | 362 | 400 | 762 | 144 | 304 | 18 | 13 | 346 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 282 | 260 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 208 | 267 | 312 | 578 | 104 | 251 | 23 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 282 | 252 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 52 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 246 | 324 | 377 | 701 | 131 | 284 | 18 | 9 | 317 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 390 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 228 | 280 | 362 | 641 | 133 | 270 | 23 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 380 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 80 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 268 | 335 | 432 | 767 | 163 | 301 | 19 | 8 | 333 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 166 | 146 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 158 | 255 | 240 | 494 | 82 | 200 | 25 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 167 | 359 | 42 | 306 | 54 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 356 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 151 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 174 | 240 | 320 | 560 | 146 | 245 | 39 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 391 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 123 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 245 | 327 | 573 | 141 | 229 | 29 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 93 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 215 | 295 | 344 | 639 | 129 | 260 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 282 | 259 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 208 | 267 | 313 | 580 | 104 | 255 | 23 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 398 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 224 | 280 | 354 | 634 | 131 | 261 | 23 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 105 | 93 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 215 | 295 | 344 | 639 | 129 | 260 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 282 | 259 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 208 | 267 | 313 | 580 | 104 | 255 | 23 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 429 | 398 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 224 | 280 | 354 | 634 | 131 | 261 | 23 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 2% | 380 | 350 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 85 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 282 | 354 | 637 | 126 | 276 | 22 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 279 | 349 | 628 | 125 | 270 | 25 | 0 | 281 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 31% | 250 | 231 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 284 | 357 | 641 | 127 | 276 | 22 | 6 | 286 | 80 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 42% | 279 | 256 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 356 | 642 | 128 | 276 | 23 | 6 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 48% | 295 | 271 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 67 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 285 | 354 | 639 | 127 | 276 | 23 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 31% | 78 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 281 | 352 | 633 | 126 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 283 | 80 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 42% | 117 | 108 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 282 | 352 | 634 | 126 | 271 | 22 | 6 | 283 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 48% | 141 | 130 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 282 | 350 | 631 | 125 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 282 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 336 | 310 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 76 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 226 | 281 | 355 | 636 | 129 | 272 | 23 | 6 | 283 | 66 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +7 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 135 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 41 | 147 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 225 | 282 | 352 | 633 | 127 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 283 | 66 | -16 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2855 | 2609 | 541 | 109 | 11 | 67 | 179 | 750 | 37 | 42 | 24 | 207 | 268 | 335 | 603 | 127 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -25 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +22 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 124 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 171 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 209 | 269 | 337 | 606 | 128 | 263 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -16 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 429 PAwOBA .332 → .278 (−54)K% 18.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 19.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .332 → .278; ISO .163 → .135; BABIP .301 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 200 PAwOBA .314 → .268 (−46)K% 18.5% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.50% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.14% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .314 → .268; ISO .130 → .111; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Padres · 57 PAwOBA .351 → .239 (−113)K% 19.3% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.30% | ÷1.023 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 18.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.045 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 3.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .239; ISO .173 → .115; BABIP .333 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 105 PAwOBA .337 → .269 (−68)K% 18.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 17.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .337 → .269; ISO .144 → .119; BABIP .304 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 264 PAwOBA .355 → .269 (−86)K% 18.9% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.68% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.65% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.20% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | — | 15.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | — | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | — | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .355 → .269; ISO .237 → .166; BABIP .285 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 159 PAwOBA .274 → .223 (−51)K% 25.8% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.79% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.17% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .274 → .223; ISO .136 → .113; BABIP .247 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 276 PAwOBA .372 → .278 (−93)K% 24.6% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.64% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 19.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .372 → .278; ISO .224 → .168; BABIP .337 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 114 PAwOBA .217 → .162 (−55)K% 37.7% → 48.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.72% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 48.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.39% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 3.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 10.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.67% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .217 → .162; ISO .151 → .112; BABIP .186 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .