Jason Bonilla prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jason Bonilla P ACL Giants Black

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.6%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	14	14	56	241	50	25	1	100%	4.0	14.1%	13.0%	1.1%	0.6%	3.21	3.87	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	14	14	56	241	50	25	1	100%	4.0	20.7%	10.4%	10.4%	0.4%	3.21	2.89	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	17	0	21	95	39	15	0	0%	1.2	27.9%	19.7%	8.2%	0.0%	5.57	3.24	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	17	0	21	95	39	15	0	0%	1.2	41.1%	15.8%	25.3%	0.0%	5.57	1.53	—
2022	23	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	15	0	22	104	31	16	1	0%	1.4	20.3%	19.2%	1.0%	1.3%	3.32	4.55	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	15	0	22	104	31	16	1	0%	1.4	29.8%	15.4%	14.4%	1.0%	3.32	3.05	—
2023	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	12	2	24	125	23	30	2	17%	2.0	12.5%	30.0%	-17.5%	2.2%	6.75	7.04	—
2023	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	12	2	24	125	23	30	2	17%	2.0	12.5%	30.0%	-17.5%	2.2%	6.75	7.04	—
2023	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	12	2	24	125	23	30	2	17%	2.0	18.4%	24.0%	-5.6%	1.6%	6.75	6.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	15.5%	7.0%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	19	13	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.15	5.18	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.15	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.15	4.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	138	28	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.15	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		58	16	123	565	97	108	5	28%	2.1	17.2%	19.0%	-1.8%	1.0%	4.33	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	26	200	921	159	175	9	28%	2.1	17.2%	19.0%	-1.8%	1.0%	4.33	4.59	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Bonilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.6%	15.5%	3.0%	—	5.18	22.5%	7.5%	20	-0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	74
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	74
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	73
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	73
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	73
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	72
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	72
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	72
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	71
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	71
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	71
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	71
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	71
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	71