Nelson Beltran
SS ACL Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A/ROKOAK | 214 | .184/.315/.257 | 1 | 6 | 15 | — | .134/.230/.187 |
| 2024 | 22 | AOAK | 342 | .206/.330/.276 | 3 | 11 | 31 | — | .160/.257/.210 |
| 2025 | 23 | ROKOAK | 143 | .217/.415/.274 | 1 | 4 | 37 | — | .145/.296/.188 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBOAK | 200 | .209/.286/.314 | 3 | 3 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 24 | .218/.295/.336 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBOAK | 57 | .219/.295/.338 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 147 | 126 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 276 | 175 | 450 | 8 | 236 | 26 | 9 | 224 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 136 | 114 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 263 | 378 | 351 | 729 | 88 | 405 | 30 | 10 | 336 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 144 | 119 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 269 | 396 | 437 | 833 | 168 | 397 | 30 | 11 | 377 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 130 | 112 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 116 | 238 | 170 | 408 | 54 | 228 | 42 | 12 | 205 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 84 | 67 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 299 | 434 | 403 | 837 | 104 | 365 | 18 | 15 | 381 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 286 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 107 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 330 | 276 | 607 | 70 | 315 | 31 | 12 | 288 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 415 | 274 | 689 | 57 | 333 | 28 | 19 | 340 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 147 | 130 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 108 | 200 | 115 | 315 | 8 | 153 | 31 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 136 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 153 | 259 | 195 | 454 | 42 | 258 | 37 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 144 | 125 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 184 | 292 | 288 | 580 | 104 | 321 | 43 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 130 | 117 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 77 | 169 | 111 | 280 | 34 | 211 | 58 | 8 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 84 | 72 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 222 | 325 | 306 | 631 | 83 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 300 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 143 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 160 | 257 | 210 | 467 | 50 | 282 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 145 | 296 | 188 | 484 | 43 | 249 | 41 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 147 | 130 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 108 | 200 | 115 | 315 | 8 | 165 | 31 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 147 | 126 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 167 | 276 | 175 | 450 | 8 | 236 | 26 | 9 | 224 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 136 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 153 | 259 | 195 | 454 | 42 | 261 | 37 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 136 | 114 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 263 | 378 | 351 | 729 | 88 | 405 | 30 | 10 | 336 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 144 | 125 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 184 | 292 | 288 | 580 | 104 | 344 | 43 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 144 | 119 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 269 | 396 | 437 | 833 | 168 | 397 | 30 | 11 | 377 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 189 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 96 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 132 | 230 | 185 | 415 | 53 | 258 | 45 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 214 | 179 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 70 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 184 | 315 | 257 | 572 | 73 | 294 | 33 | 14 | 274 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 300 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 143 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 160 | 257 | 210 | 467 | 50 | 293 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 286 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 107 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 330 | 276 | 607 | 70 | 315 | 31 | 12 | 288 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 145 | 296 | 188 | 484 | 43 | 276 | 41 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 415 | 274 | 689 | 57 | 333 | 28 | 19 | 340 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 147 | 131 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 107 | 200 | 115 | 315 | 8 | 153 | 31 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 136 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 153 | 259 | 195 | 454 | 42 | 258 | 37 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 144 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 185 | 292 | 290 | 582 | 105 | 321 | 43 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 188 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 96 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 133 | 230 | 186 | 416 | 53 | 240 | 45 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 300 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 143 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 160 | 257 | 210 | 467 | 50 | 282 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 145 | 296 | 188 | 484 | 43 | 249 | 41 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 342 | 300 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 143 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 160 | 257 | 210 | 467 | 50 | 282 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 143 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 145 | 296 | 188 | 484 | 43 | 249 | 41 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 200 | 179 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 286 | 314 | 600 | 105 | 283 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 30% | 80 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 289 | 326 | 615 | 114 | 284 | 29 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 42% | 136 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 290 | 328 | 618 | 115 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 48% | 176 | 157 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 290 | 327 | 617 | 115 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 30% | 24 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 295 | 336 | 631 | 118 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 285 | 75 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 42% | 57 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 295 | 338 | 633 | 119 | 294 | 28 | 9 | 286 | 76 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 48% | 84 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 295 | 337 | 632 | 118 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 286 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 165 | 149 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 285 | 309 | 594 | 101 | 283 | 28 | 8 | 286 | 40 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 123 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 55 | 185 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 210 | 286 | 312 | 598 | 102 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 286 | 40 | -19 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1565 | 1372 | 228 | 37 | 7 | 14 | 128 | 579 | 54 | 57 | 13 | 166 | 264 | 234 | 498 | 68 | 272 | 37 | 8 | 227 | 40 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 95 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 53 | 240 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 167 | 263 | 235 | 498 | 68 | 272 | 37 | 8 | 227 | 40 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 143 PAwOBA .335 → .223 (−112)K% 28.0% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.97% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.88% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 11.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.29% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 4.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.79% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×0.955 | 21.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×0.955 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .335 → .223; ISO .057 → .039; BABIP .333 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AStockton Ports · 342 PAwOBA .283 → .214 (−69)K% 31.3% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.29% | ÷1.015 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.28% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.26% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×0.990 | 23.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.91% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×0.990 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×0.990 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .283 → .214; ISO .070 → .051; BABIP .315 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AStockton Ports · 130 PAwOBA .201 → .138 (−63)K% 42.3% → 57.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.31% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 57.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.28% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 12.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 8.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .201 → .138; ISO .054 → .034; BABIP .228 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 84 PAwOBA .377 → .272 (−105)K% 17.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 24.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 2.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 1.48% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .377 → .272; ISO .104 → .073; BABIP .365 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Athletics · 144 PAwOBA .368 → .250 (−118)K% 29.9% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.86% | ÷0.997 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.017 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.007 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷0.981 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.19% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .368 → .250; ISO .168 → .113; BABIP .397 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Athletics · 136 PAwOBA .331 → .212 (−119)K% 30.1% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.15% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 3.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .331 → .212; ISO .088 → .050; BABIP .405 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Athletics · 147 PAwOBA .220 → .147 (−73)K% 25.9% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 14.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .220 → .147; ISO .008 → .005; BABIP .236 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).