Ryan McCarty
SS Altoona Curve| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+TOR | 473 | .244/.315/.397 | 14 | 12 | 50 | — | .195/.253/.305 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AATOR | 405 | .225/.327/.328 | 5 | 9 | 47 | — | .184/.265/.263 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 184 | .216/.363/.284 | 2 | 9 | 57 | — | .197/.308/.262 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBPIT | 2 | .200/.281/.283 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 36 | .200/.280/.283 | 0 | 1 | 63 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 74 | 62 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 384 | 387 | 771 | 113 | 400 | 30 | 11 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 149 | 121 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 248 | 377 | 397 | 773 | 149 | 318 | 24 | 13 | 347 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 243 | 205 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 244 | 345 | 449 | 793 | 205 | 299 | 24 | 12 | 345 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 286 | 261 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 74 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 241 | 305 | 395 | 700 | 153 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 313 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 187 | 165 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 248 | 330 | 400 | 730 | 152 | 286 | 19 | 9 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 321 | 440 | 761 | 200 | 312 | 29 | 7 | 337 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 377 | 326 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 92 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 224 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 95 | 299 | 24 | 11 | 300 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 82 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 239 | 378 | 254 | 632 | 15 | 314 | 20 | 17 | 309 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 102 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 198 | 350 | 309 | 659 | 111 | 241 | 22 | 16 | 307 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 74 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 301 | 308 | 609 | 92 | 353 | 39 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 149 | 127 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 197 | 301 | 307 | 608 | 110 | 265 | 32 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 243 | 216 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 79 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 176 | 252 | 301 | 553 | 125 | 240 | 33 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 286 | 266 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 91 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 192 | 246 | 297 | 543 | 105 | 261 | 32 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 187 | 170 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 200 | 265 | 318 | 583 | 118 | 245 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 28 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 423 | 709 | 192 | 295 | 36 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 377 | 338 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 116 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 180 | 263 | 251 | 515 | 71 | 260 | 31 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 82 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 317 | 225 | 542 | 14 | 281 | 23 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 102 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 186 | 300 | 291 | 591 | 105 | 221 | 26 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 74 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 301 | 308 | 609 | 92 | 361 | 39 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 74 | 62 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 384 | 387 | 771 | 113 | 400 | 30 | 11 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 343 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 126 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 184 | 271 | 303 | 574 | 120 | 260 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 392 | 326 | 80 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 95 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 245 | 357 | 429 | 786 | 184 | 306 | 24 | 12 | 346 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 436 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 140 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 193 | 251 | 294 | 545 | 101 | 259 | 30 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 473 | 426 | 104 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 110 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 244 | 315 | 397 | 712 | 153 | 295 | 23 | 7 | 318 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 364 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 126 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 181 | 262 | 261 | 523 | 80 | 264 | 31 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 405 | 351 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 100 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 225 | 327 | 328 | 654 | 103 | 300 | 25 | 11 | 303 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 46 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 191 | 302 | 248 | 551 | 57 | 255 | 25 | 11 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 148 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 38 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 216 | 363 | 284 | 646 | 68 | 275 | 21 | 16 | 308 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 74 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 301 | 303 | 604 | 91 | 353 | 39 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 348 | 63 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 126 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 181 | 271 | 299 | 570 | 118 | 250 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 436 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 140 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 193 | 251 | 294 | 545 | 101 | 255 | 30 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 362 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 126 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 182 | 262 | 262 | 525 | 80 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 46 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 191 | 302 | 248 | 551 | 57 | 248 | 25 | 11 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 436 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 140 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 193 | 251 | 294 | 545 | 101 | 255 | 30 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 362 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 126 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 182 | 262 | 262 | 525 | 80 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 46 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 191 | 302 | 248 | 551 | 57 | 248 | 25 | 11 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 2% | 234 | 209 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 65 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 281 | 285 | 566 | 84 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -10 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 283 | 564 | 83 | 274 | 50 | 0 | 260 | 63 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 23% | 157 | 140 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 280 | 285 | 565 | 85 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 23% | 36 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 280 | 283 | 564 | 83 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 260 | 63 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 219 | 497 | 31 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 260 | 54 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 181 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 187 | 277 | 218 | 495 | 31 | 272 | 28 | 8 | 260 | 54 | -29 | +4 | -6 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1808 | 1615 | 307 | 60 | 6 | 26 | 136 | 545 | 40 | 46 | 26 | 190 | 270 | 283 | 553 | 93 | 265 | 30 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 110 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 196 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 189 | 269 | 281 | 549 | 91 | 264 | 30 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -29 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 102 PAwOBA .303 → .252 (−52)K% 21.6% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .303 → .252; ISO .111 → .092; BABIP .241 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 82 PAwOBA .303 → .251 (−52)K% 19.5% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 26.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 1.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .303 → .251; ISO .015 → .012; BABIP .314 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 377 PAwOBA .294 → .234 (−59)K% 24.4% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.88% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.030 | ×0.860 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.997 | ×0.950 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.885 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .294 → .234; ISO .095 → .076; BABIP .299 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 28 PAwOBA .328 → .279 (−49)K% 28.6% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 22.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 5.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.847 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .279; ISO .200 → .169; BABIP .312 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 286 PAwOBA .305 → .236 (−70)K% 25.9% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.87% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.29% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷1.015 | ×0.970 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.95% | ÷1.051 | ×0.860 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.145 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .305 → .236; ISO .153 → .104; BABIP .302 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 187 PAwOBA .320 → .249 (−71)K% 19.3% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.25% | ÷0.980 | ×1.350 | — | — | 26.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 6.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷0.964 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.071 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 2.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 93, 2B 114, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .320 → .249; ISO .152 → .110; BABIP .286 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 243 PAwOBA .343 → .247 (−96)K% 24.3% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.28% | ÷1.018 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.062 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.12% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 14.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.27% | ÷1.034 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.111 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.79% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 122, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .247; ISO .205 → .137; BABIP .299 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 149 PAwOBA .345 → .266 (−79)K% 24.2% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.16% | ÷1.028 | ×1.350 | — | — | 31.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.42% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.36% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.253 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .345 → .266; ISO .149 → .109; BABIP .318 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).