Trey Faltine
SS Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ACIN | 276 | .206/.330/.329 | 6 | 29 | 26 | — | .142/.240/.217 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+/ACIN | 152 | .182/.247/.270 | 0 | 7 | 6 | — | .142/.193/.211 |
| 2026 | 25 | AACIN | 83 | .117/.171/.221 | 1 | 0 | -31 | — | .089/.122/.177 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCIN | 2 | .180/.240/.281 | 0 | 0 | 45 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCIN | 43 | .182/.243/.285 | 1 | 1 | 47 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 78 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 408 | 390 | 798 | 153 | 361 | 31 | 18 | 360 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 184 | 155 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 88 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 103 | 232 | 181 | 413 | 77 | 200 | 48 | 11 | 204 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 25 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 222 | 44 | 8 | 128 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 251 | 208 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 96 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 216 | 343 | 351 | 694 | 135 | 361 | 38 | 13 | 318 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 57 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 185 | 228 | 352 | 580 | 167 | 357 | 46 | 4 | 254 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 227 | 105 | 333 | 222 | 43 | 13 | 170 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 49 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 292 | 286 | 577 | 71 | 409 | 41 | 8 | 261 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 23 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 217 | 182 | 399 | 308 | 39 | 4 | 188 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 77 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 117 | 171 | 221 | 392 | 104 | 235 | 51 | 6 | 177 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 78 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 329 | 317 | 646 | 127 | 314 | 41 | 13 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 184 | 161 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 115 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 68 | 171 | 118 | 289 | 50 | 172 | 62 | 8 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 95 | 136 | 95 | 232 | 199 | 56 | 4 | 108 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 251 | 218 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 132 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 147 | 250 | 229 | 479 | 83 | 316 | 53 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 57 | 55 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 175 | 291 | 466 | 145 | 337 | 56 | 2 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 215 | 52 | 9 | 131 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 159 | 229 | 205 | 434 | 45 | 369 | 51 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 23 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 174 | 136 | 310 | 283 | 52 | 4 | 131 | -25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 79 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 122 | 177 | 299 | 89 | 213 | 61 | 4 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 78 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 329 | 317 | 646 | 127 | 344 | 41 | 13 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 78 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 408 | 390 | 798 | 153 | 361 | 31 | 18 | 360 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 184 | 161 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 115 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 68 | 171 | 118 | 289 | 50 | 200 | 62 | 8 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 184 | 155 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 88 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 103 | 232 | 181 | 413 | 77 | 200 | 48 | 11 | 204 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 239 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 142 | 241 | 218 | 458 | 75 | 330 | 53 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 228 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 107 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 206 | 330 | 329 | 659 | 123 | 350 | 39 | 13 | 301 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 152 | 141 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 82 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 142 | 193 | 213 | 406 | 71 | 339 | 54 | 5 | 176 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 152 | 137 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 182 | 247 | 270 | 517 | 88 | 347 | 43 | 7 | 234 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 79 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 122 | 177 | 299 | 89 | 222 | 61 | 4 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 77 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 117 | 171 | 221 | 392 | 104 | 235 | 51 | 6 | 177 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 78 | 65 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 329 | 308 | 637 | 123 | 314 | 41 | 13 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 184 | 162 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 115 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 68 | 171 | 117 | 289 | 49 | 172 | 62 | 8 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 243 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 140 | 241 | 214 | 455 | 74 | 305 | 53 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 152 | 142 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 82 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 141 | 193 | 211 | 405 | 70 | 321 | 54 | 5 | 176 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 80 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 87 | 122 | 175 | 297 | 87 | 213 | 61 | 4 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 243 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 146 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 140 | 241 | 214 | 455 | 74 | 305 | 53 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 152 | 142 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 82 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 141 | 193 | 211 | 405 | 70 | 321 | 54 | 5 | 176 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 83 | 80 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 87 | 122 | 175 | 297 | 87 | 213 | 61 | 4 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 200 | 183 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 239 | 276 | 515 | 98 | 289 | 39 | 6 | 234 | 45 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 240 | 281 | 521 | 101 | 289 | 50 | 0 | 236 | 45 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 27% | 162 | 149 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 242 | 280 | 523 | 100 | 289 | 38 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 27% | 43 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 243 | 285 | 528 | 103 | 289 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 47 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 256 | 325 | 581 | 125 | 318 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 19 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 121 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 257 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 200 | 255 | 324 | 579 | 124 | 318 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 19 | -41 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1040 | 928 | 128 | 33 | 4 | 11 | 75 | 529 | 21 | 46 | 6 | 138 | 219 | 218 | 436 | 80 | 296 | 51 | 7 | 197 | 19 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 80 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 47 | 331 | 13 | 29 | 4 | 138 | 219 | 217 | 436 | 79 | 297 | 51 | 7 | 197 | 19 | -42 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 83 PAwOBA .173 → .123 (−50)K% 50.6% → 61.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 61.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 7.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 12.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .173 → .123; ISO .104 → .073; BABIP .235 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 57 PAwOBA .247 → .192 (−56)K% 45.6% → 56.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.61% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 56.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.51% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 2.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 9.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 15.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 8.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .247 → .192; ISO .167 → .133; BABIP .357 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 49 PAwOBA .255 → .201 (−54)K% 40.8% → 51.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.82% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 51.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 25.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 11.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .201; ISO .071 → .056; BABIP .409 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 23 PAwOBA .167 → .131 (−35)K% 43.5% → 52.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.48% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 52.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .167 → .131; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 23 PAwOBA .183 → .131 (−52)K% 39.1% → 52.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.13% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 28.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .183 → .131; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .308 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 251 PAwOBA .313 → .217 (−96)K% 38.2% → 52.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.25% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.15% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.89% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 24.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .313 → .217; ISO .135 → .082; BABIP .361 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 25 PAwOBA .126 → .108 (−18)K% 44.0% → 55.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.00% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 55.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.285 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .126 → .108; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 184 PAwOBA .200 → .138 (−63)K% 47.8% → 62.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.83% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 62.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.26% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.93% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .200 → .138; ISO .077 → .048; BABIP .200 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).