Alexander Vargas

Alexander VargasSS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 24 S/R 5'11" / 184 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 258 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .254 / .309

PA258

HR3

SB9

K%24

BB%4

BABIP275

ISO95

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Yankees East	—	217	200	34	7	5	1	11	40	5	15	3	170	231	270	501	100	206	18	5	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	GCL Yankees East	—	217	193	45	10	7	1	18	28	5	15	3	233	315	373	688	140	267	13	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	174	159	29	4	1	2	11	56	2	17	8	182	244	258	502	75	262	32	6	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	174	150	41	7	1	3	20	40	2	17	8	273	366	393	760	120	349	23	11	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	400	53	11	1	6	24	184	3	27	13	133	187	210	397	77	220	43	6	178	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	389	79	14	2	8	35	123	3	27	13	203	274	311	585	108	271	29	8	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	429	67	12	6	7	13	154	1	16	6	156	183	261	444	105	221	34	3	191	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	418	86	18	6	9	24	116	1	16	6	206	251	342	593	136	259	26	5	262	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	275	259	53	8	6	3	10	82	3	15	10	205	243	317	559	112	282	30	4	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	275	255	64	8	6	4	14	66	3	15	10	251	298	376	674	125	319	24	5	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	402	372	74	13	4	5	21	94	4	26	6	199	249	296	545	97	249	23	5	238	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	402	363	83	14	5	7	30	69	4	26	6	229	295	353	647	124	261	17	7	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	CIN	—	62	57	18	1	1	0	3	9	0	2	2	316	350	368	718	53	375	15	5	305	92	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
YTD	24	AA	CIN	—	62	56	19	1	1	0	4	7	0	2	2	339	383	393	776	54	388	11	6	340	118	+1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	24	AA	CIN	2%	258	243	52	8	3	3	11	63	2	9	4	214	254	309	563	95	276	24	4	253	52	-14	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.4
ROS	24	MLB	CIN	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		278	20	0	251	50	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	CIN	—	67	62	19	1	1	0	3	10	0	2	2	306	338	355	693	48	365	15	4	301	88	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
TOT	24	AA	CIN	—	320	300	70	9	4	3	14	72	2	11	6	233	272	320	592	87	296	22	4	263	60	-15	-0	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	CIN	31%	361	337	75	12	4	6	18	87	3	12	5	223	268	335	603	113	279	24	5	266	62	-16	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	CIN	45%	400	373	84	13	5	7	21	96	3	14	6	225	272	343	615	118	281	24	5	272	67	-15	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.1
2029	27	MLB	CIN	49%	416	387	88	14	5	8	23	100	3	14	6	227	276	351	627	124	281	24	6	275	69	-15	+0	+0	+4	+12	0.2
2030	28	MLB	CIN	52%	422	392	89	14	5	8	24	102	3	14	6	227	277	349	626	122	281	24	6	276	69	-15	+0	-1	+5	+12	0.1
2031	29	MLB	CIN	52%	418	388	86	14	4	7	24	101	3	13	5	222	272	332	605	111	280	24	6	274	68	-15	+1	-1	+4	+12	0.0
2027	25	MLB	CIN	31%	112	105	24	4	1	2	5	27	1	4	2	229	270	343	613	114	282	24	4	263	59	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	CIN	45%	178	166	37	6	2	3	9	43	1	6	3	223	267	337	604	114	283	24	5	269	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	CIN	49%	205	190	43	7	2	4	11	49	2	7	3	226	276	347	623	121	283	24	5	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
2030	28	MLB	CIN	52%	218	202	45	7	2	4	12	52	2	7	3	223	273	337	610	114	283	24	6	272	67	-8	+0	-0	+2	+6	0.0
2031	29	MLB	CIN	52%	215	199	44	7	2	4	12	52	2	6	3	221	272	337	609	116	283	24	6	271	65	-8	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	933	867	194	31	9	17	49	224	8	30	14	224	272	339	611	115	281	24	5	270	65	-37	+0	-1	+10	+26	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	135	22	6	12	34	156	6	21	10	224	272	339	611	116	280	24	5	270	65	-26	+0	-1	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	4221	3939	784	130	49	63	211	1159	35	192	78	199	246	305	551	106	263	27	5	243	44	-266	+7	-2	+45	+120	-9.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	607	121	20	8	10	32	178	5	30	12	199	245	308	553	109	262	27	5	243	44	-41	+1	-0	+7	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Yankees East	—	217	193	45	10	7	1	18	28	5	15	3	233	315	373	688	140	267	13	8	308	94	-1	+2	—	—	+6	0.7
2021	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	174	150	41	7	1	3	20	40	2	17	8	273	366	393	760	120	349	23	11	341	119	+4	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	389	79	14	2	8	35	123	3	27	13	203	274	311	585	108	271	29	8	265	61	-19	+0	—	—	+12	-0.7
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	418	86	18	6	9	24	116	1	16	6	206	251	342	593	136	259	26	5	262	58	-21	+1	—	—	+13	-0.8
2024	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	256	240	61	7	5	4	11	65	3	14	9	254	295	375	670	121	329	25	4	297	85	-4	-1	—	—	+7	0.2
2024	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	19	15	3	1	1	0	3	1	0	1	1	200	333	400	733	200	200	5	16	310	96	-0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	147	132	30	7	2	1	12	33	2	10	4	227	301	333	635	106	293	22	8	287	78	-4	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	255	231	53	7	3	6	18	36	2	16	2	229	291	364	654	134	245	14	7	290	80	-6	+2	—	—	+7	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	934	16	30	225	270	342	+10	+6	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	12	22	225	270	342	+7.1	+4.3	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Vargas (OGILVIE)	24	45	40	60	30	233/272/320	87	296	3	11	22%	4%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Noel Cuevas 2016 · AA	24	44→49	40→45	53→55	38	216/254/309	93	284	7	21	26%	4%	52	-1.6	234/267/329	95	302	7	15	24%	3%	63	-0.9	241/274/340	99	304	7	12	22%	3%	65	-0.5
✕Gustavo Nunez 2012 · AA	24	46→56	38→40	52→55	40	222/260/298	76	282	5	20	23%	4%	52	-1.6	219/257/286	67	290	4	15	25%	5%	46	-2.0	248/287/307	59	304	4	18	19%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Carlos Garcia 2017 · AA	25	47→49	38→40	53→55	43	226/272/307	80	282	5	21	21%	5%	59	-1.1	217/266/329	112	267	12	15	23%	5%	63	-0.8	200/249/320	119	235	16	16	23%	5%	51	-0.8
✕Andrew Velazquez 2019 · AAA	25	42→51	44→50	57→60	37	209/251/325	116	292	12	24	32%	5%	56	-1.3	221/271/349	128	310	11	24	31%	6%	70	-0.3	219/267/352	132	313	12	31	32%	5%	66	-0.3
✕Leon Landry 2014 · AA	24	43→53	40→45	54→55	40	208/240/304	96	249	7	19	20%	4%	44	-2.1	223/256/317	94	265	7	19	18%	4%	55	-1.4	226/262/321	95	266	6	17	17%	4%	56	-0.9
✕Jose Vallejo 2011 · AAA	24	44→54	38→40	53→55	39	214/251/288	74	289	5	15	27%	5%	45	-2.1	203/249/280	77	271	7	9	26%	6%	42	-2.3	189/232/233	44	238	5	5	22%	5%	20	-1.3
✕Johnni Turbo 2013 · AA	24	48	39→40	56→55	38	228/263/311	83	304	6	18	26%	4%	56	-1.3	234/267/321	87	288	6	17	20%	3%	60	-1.0	240/277/304	64	298	3	18	20%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Juan Perez 2016 · AAA	24	42→51	39→45	54→55	40	205/243/297	92	266	6	18	25%	4%	43	-2.2	214/261/313	99	288	9	18	28%	5%	56	-1.3	227/271/349	122	293	14	24	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Matt Lipka 2016 · AA	24	44→54	38→45	53→60	39	210/245/288	78	261	5	19	22%	4%	43	-2.2	205/253/299	94	267	7	19	25%	5%	50	-1.8	230/283/343	114	308	11	31	28%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2019 · AAA	24	39→46	42→50	60→65	36	192/235/306	114	281	8	27	34%	5%	43	-2.2	208/248/328	120	298	10	22	32%	4%	55	-1.4	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Cole Tucker 2019 · AA	23	45→46	40→45	56→55	45	217/278/311	93	285	6	26	25%	7%	63	-0.9	217/277/331	114	284	9	15	25%	7%	68	-0.5	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Kaleb Cowart 2017 · MLB	25	43→52	42→45	52→50	40	211/258/321	110	288	9	15	29%	6%	57	-1.2	220/271/344	124	286	11	15	26%	6%	69	-0.4	219/272/343	124	277	11	14	25%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Orlando Calixte 2016 · AAA	24	41→51	41→45	52→55	37	206/242/298	92	280	9	18	30%	4%	43	-2.2	222/258/339	117	285	12	19	26%	5%	61	-1.0	233/273/324	91	306	9	20	26%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	41→46	42→45	52→60	43	202/263/305	103	271	9	20	28%	7%	56	-1.3	228/286/325	97	313	8	28	28%	7%	70	-0.3	230/291/360	130	317	13	42	30%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Cal Conley 2023 · A	24	43→49	44→40	55	40	216/266/335	118	282	12	20	27%	5%	64	-0.8	209/259/289	80	278	6	24	25%	6%	49	-1.8	202/247/276	73	269	5	26	26%	5%	37	-1.8
✕Pedro Florimón 2011 · AA	24	44→52	40→45	51→55	38	210/261/305	95	305	6	15	32%	5%	54	-1.4	228/276/327	99	309	8	14	27%	6%	66	-0.6	219/275/335	116	325	10	11	34%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Chavez Young 2021 · A	24	42→47	39→45	52→60	41	201/258/288	88	289	6	20	31%	6%	49	-1.8	212/280/317	105	300	10	28	30%	8%	66	-0.6	199/274/297	98	274	10	36	29%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Darwin Perez 2013 · AAA	24	45→52	40	51→50	43	216/272/303	87	288	8	16	27%	6%	59	-1.1	201/263/291	90	289	7	16	31%	7%	52	-1.6	179/249/252	74	268	5	18	33%	8%	34	-2.2
✕Anthony Jackson 2008 · A	24	43→53	41→40	61→55	42	209/264/315	106	286	6	19	28%	6%	58	-1.2	230/284/308	78	295	4	25	22%	6%	64	-0.8	255/321/326	71	317	4	28	19%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Hunter Jones 2016 · A	24	41→51	40→45	56→55	41	198/260/283	85	278	8	21	30%	6%	49	-1.8	218/273/313	95	290	7	17	26%	6%	62	-0.9	225/281/324	99	293	7	16	24%	6%	65	-0.5