Alexander Vargas
SS Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+NYY | 275 | .251/.298/.376 | 4 | 15 | 56 | — | .216/.254/.325 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 402 | .229/.295/.353 | 7 | 26 | 48 | — | .198/.247/.298 |
| 2026 | 24 | AACIN | 62 | .339/.383/.393 | 0 | 2 | 91 | — | .316/.350/.368 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBCIN | 2 | .215/.258/.308 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBCIN | 46 | .218/.263/.320 | 1 | 2 | 61 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | — | 217 | 193 | 45 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 233 | 315 | 373 | 688 | 140 | 267 | 13 | 8 | 308 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 174 | 150 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 40 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 273 | 366 | 393 | 760 | 120 | 349 | 23 | 11 | 341 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 431 | 389 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 123 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 203 | 274 | 311 | 585 | 108 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 265 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 418 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 116 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 206 | 251 | 342 | 593 | 136 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 256 | 240 | 61 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 65 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 254 | 295 | 375 | 670 | 121 | 329 | 25 | 4 | 297 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 400 | 733 | 200 | 200 | 5 | 16 | 310 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 147 | 132 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 227 | 301 | 333 | 635 | 106 | 293 | 22 | 8 | 287 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 255 | 231 | 53 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 36 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 229 | 291 | 364 | 654 | 134 | 245 | 14 | 7 | 290 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 56 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 339 | 383 | 393 | 776 | 54 | 388 | 11 | 6 | 340 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 217 | 199 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 171 | 236 | 271 | 507 | 101 | 202 | 18 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 174 | 159 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 57 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 182 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 75 | 261 | 33 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 431 | 401 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 172 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 145 | 197 | 224 | 421 | 80 | 224 | 40 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 429 | 65 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 151 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 152 | 178 | 252 | 430 | 100 | 209 | 34 | 3 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 256 | 243 | 53 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 78 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 218 | 252 | 321 | 573 | 103 | 303 | 30 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 278 | 375 | 653 | 188 | 169 | 5 | 11 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 147 | 136 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 206 | 260 | 301 | 562 | 96 | 284 | 28 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 255 | 237 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 194 | 239 | 295 | 534 | 101 | 217 | 18 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 316 | 350 | 368 | 718 | 53 | 356 | 15 | 5 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 217 | 199 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 171 | 236 | 271 | 507 | 101 | 208 | 18 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees East | — | 217 | 193 | 45 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 233 | 315 | 373 | 688 | 140 | 267 | 13 | 8 | 308 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 174 | 159 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 57 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 182 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 75 | 265 | 33 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Yankees | — | 174 | 150 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 40 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 273 | 366 | 393 | 760 | 120 | 349 | 23 | 11 | 341 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 431 | 401 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 172 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 145 | 197 | 224 | 421 | 80 | 229 | 40 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 431 | 389 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 123 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 203 | 274 | 311 | 585 | 108 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 265 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 429 | 65 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 151 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 152 | 178 | 252 | 430 | 100 | 211 | 34 | 3 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 418 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 116 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 206 | 251 | 342 | 593 | 136 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 259 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 79 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 216 | 254 | 324 | 578 | 108 | 294 | 29 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 255 | 64 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 66 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 251 | 298 | 376 | 674 | 125 | 319 | 24 | 5 | 298 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 373 | 74 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 198 | 247 | 292 | 539 | 94 | 242 | 22 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 402 | 363 | 83 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 69 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 295 | 353 | 647 | 124 | 261 | 17 | 7 | 289 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 316 | 350 | 368 | 718 | 53 | 375 | 15 | 5 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 56 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 339 | 383 | 393 | 776 | 54 | 388 | 11 | 6 | 340 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 217 | 198 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 172 | 236 | 273 | 509 | 101 | 202 | 18 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 174 | 159 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 57 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 182 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 75 | 261 | 33 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 431 | 402 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 172 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 144 | 197 | 224 | 421 | 80 | 224 | 40 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 430 | 65 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 151 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 151 | 178 | 251 | 429 | 100 | 209 | 34 | 3 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 260 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 79 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 215 | 254 | 323 | 577 | 108 | 294 | 29 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 375 | 74 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 197 | 247 | 291 | 538 | 93 | 241 | 22 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 305 | 350 | 356 | 706 | 51 | 356 | 15 | 5 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 260 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 79 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 215 | 254 | 323 | 577 | 108 | 294 | 29 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 375 | 74 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 197 | 247 | 291 | 538 | 93 | 241 | 22 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 62 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 305 | 350 | 356 | 706 | 51 | 356 | 15 | 5 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 200 | 187 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 213 | 257 | 304 | 561 | 91 | 265 | 22 | 4 | 252 | 57 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 258 | 308 | 566 | 93 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 31% | 149 | 140 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 261 | 315 | 577 | 99 | 266 | 22 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 31% | 46 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 263 | 320 | 583 | 102 | 267 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 61 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 239 | 295 | 535 | 91 | 242 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 36 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 622 | 127 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 141 | 0 | 28 | 14 | 204 | 238 | 294 | 533 | 90 | 242 | 22 | 4 | 261 | 36 | -30 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2245 | 2100 | 383 | 61 | 27 | 27 | 103 | 647 | 20 | 126 | 51 | 182 | 228 | 276 | 503 | 93 | 246 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 112 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 187 | 6 | 36 | 15 | 184 | 230 | 280 | 510 | 95 | 248 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -31 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 62 PAwOBA .331 → .302 (−29)K% 11.3% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 31.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 1.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .331 → .302; ISO .054 → .049; BABIP .388 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 255 PAwOBA .285 → .235 (−50)K% 14.1% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.12% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 17.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.97% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .285 → .235; ISO .134 → .104; BABIP .245 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 147 PAwOBA .279 → .246 (−33)K% 22.4% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.48% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.20% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .279 → .246; ISO .106 → .090; BABIP .293 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 256 PAwOBA .291 → .250 (−41)K% 25.4% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.39% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.30% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 23.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 2.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.29% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .291 → .250; ISO .121 → .104; BABIP .329 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 19 PAwOBA .320 → .261 (−59)K% 5.3% → 7.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.946 | ×1.310 | — | — | 7.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.099 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.025 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 6.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 6.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .320 → .261; ISO .200 → .199; BABIP .200 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 447 PAwOBA .257 → .189 (−68)K% 26.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.95% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.37% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.55% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 14.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.98% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .257 → .189; ISO .136 → .106; BABIP .259 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ATampa Tarpons · 431 PAwOBA .261 → .186 (−75)K% 28.5% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.54% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.68% | ÷1.085 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.015 | 17.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.015 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×1.015 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 117, 2B 98, 3B 87, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .261 → .186; ISO .108 → .078; BABIP .271 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Yankees · 174 PAwOBA .335 → .230 (−104)K% 23.0% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.99% | ÷1.013 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 21.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.039 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.928 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 86, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .230; ISO .120 → .083; BABIP .349 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).