Ethan Hearn — OGILVIE

Ethan HearnC Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 220 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†25

AVG/OBP/SLG.161 / .211 / .273

PA220

HR5

K%42

BB%5

BABIP257

ISO112

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	85	8	2	0	1	8	52	2	1	1	94	189	153	342	59	200	53	8	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	80	13	3	0	2	13	36	2	1	1	163	295	275	570	113	244	37	13	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	199	19	5	1	3	16	147	5	0	0	95	182	176	358	80	296	65	7	165	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	193	34	8	1	6	22	100	5	0	0	176	277	321	599	145	304	44	10	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	302	45	10	3	10	26	171	7	13	1	149	233	301	534	152	285	51	8	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	286	61	14	6	12	42	115	7	13	1	213	328	430	758	217	304	34	12	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	263	245	24	3	1	1	12	129	5	6	2	98	156	131	287	33	198	49	5	136	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	263	237	37	6	2	2	20	89	5	6	2	156	237	224	460	68	238	34	8	217	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	255	231	40	9	1	9	12	101	9	5	3	173	242	338	580	165	250	40	5	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	255	225	52	13	1	10	18	76	9	5	3	231	313	431	745	200	296	30	7	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	312	50	7	1	8	17	129	3	5	0	160	211	266	477	106	239	39	5	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	305	58	8	1	8	24	99	3	5	0	190	256	302	558	111	251	30	7	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	95	92	13	3	0	2	2	45	1	4	0	141	168	239	408	98	244	47	2	181	-3	-11	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	95	91	17	4	0	3	3	35	1	4	0	187	221	330	551	143	264	37	3	245	46	-6	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
ROS	25	AA	CHC	2%	220	205	33	6	1	5	10	92	3	4	1	161	211	273	484	112	255	42	5	218	25	-19	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.8
ROS	25	MLB	CHC	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0						256	50	0	209	18	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	CHC	—	99	96	13	3	0	2	2	47	1	4	0	135	162	229	391	94	234	47	2	182	-2	-11	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
TOT	25	AA	CHC	—	315	297	46	9	1	7	12	137	4	8	1	155	198	263	461	108	253	43	4	207	17	-30	+1	+0	+6	+9	-1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CHC	31%	344	319	55	10	1	9	17	137	5	6	1	172	226	295	520	122	259	40	5	230	34	-25	+1	+0	+6	+10	-0.9
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	374	346	61	11	1	10	20	144	5	6	1	176	232	301	532	124	262	39	5	237	40	-25	+1	+0	+7	+11	-0.7
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	391	361	64	12	1	10	22	148	5	6	1	177	235	299	534	122	264	38	6	241	42	-25	+1	-1	+7	+11	-0.7
2030	29	MLB	CHC	49%	394	364	65	12	1	10	22	149	5	6	1	179	235	299	535	121	263	38	6	241	43	-26	+1	-1	+7	+11	-0.8
2027	26	MLB	CHC	31%	107	100	17	3	0	3	5	43	1	2	0	170	217	290	507	120	261	40	5	222	28	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	157	146	25	5	0	4	8	61	2	3	0	171	224	288	512	116	263	39	5	229	34	-12	+1	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	187	173	32	6	1	5	10	71	2	3	0	185	238	318	556	133	265	38	5	233	36	-13	+1	-0	+3	+5	-0.5
2030	29	MLB	CHC	49%	195	180	33	6	1	5	11	74	2	3	0	183	238	311	549	128	265	38	6	233	36	-14	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	650	603	107	20	2	17	34	251	7	11	0	177	230	302	532	124	265	39	5	230	34	-48	+2	-1	+12	+18	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	107	20	2	17	34	251	7	11	0	177	230	302	532	124	265	39	5	230	34	-48	+2	-1	+12	+18	-1.8
Career	—			—	3236	2969	464	87	12	76	182	1399	54	58	12	156	218	270	489	114	256	43	6	218	25	-274	+7	-2	+58	+92	-12.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	92	17	2	15	37	281	11	12	2	154	217	265	482	111	252	43	6	218	25	-55	+2	-0	+12	+18	-2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	80	13	3	0	2	13	36	2	1	1	163	295	275	570	113	244	37	13	263	60	-4	-0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2021	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	193	34	8	1	6	22	100	5	0	0	176	277	321	599	145	304	44	10	268	63	-9	+0	—	—	+6	-0.3
2022	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	286	61	14	6	12	42	115	7	13	1	213	328	430	758	217	304	34	12	335	115	+6	+2	—	—	+10	1.8
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	263	237	37	6	2	2	20	89	5	6	2	156	237	224	460	68	238	34	8	217	25	-22	+0	—	—	+7	-1.5
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	255	225	52	13	1	10	18	76	9	5	3	231	313	431	745	200	296	30	7	328	109	+3	-0	—	—	+7	1.0
2025	24	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	305	58	8	1	8	24	99	3	5	0	190	256	302	558	111	251	30	7	254	53	-18	+1	—	—	+9	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	652	17	11	177	230	299	+12	+8	-1.3	-0.6
	/162	664	17	11	177	230	299	+11.9	+8.1	-1.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Hearn (OGILVIE)	25	30	40	45	35	155/198/263	108	253	7	8	43%	4%	17	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Shackelford 2022 · A	25	33→31	47→50	50→45	34	177/231/306	129	273	15	5	40%	5%	43	-2.2	184/246/331	147	280	18	9	39%	6%	56	-1.3	172/241/322	150	253	19	10	39%	7%	49	-1.3
✕Kyle Skipworth 2015 · AAA	25	32→35	48→50	42→30	32	177/230/313	136	271	17	4	41%	5%	44	-2.1	177/234/312	135	315	16	5	47%	5%	46	-2.0	136/196/268	131	250	18	0	51%	5%	18	-1.3
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37→36	45	47→50	37	182/259/294	113	303	14	8	42%	7%	53	-1.5	208/285/315	107	351	11	13	40%	8%	69	-0.4	209/294/304	95	361	9	19	40%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Brady Lindsly 2023 · AA	25	37	43→40	48→40	37	185/244/286	101	297	11	4	40%	7%	43	-2.2	192/253/285	93	300	10	6	37%	7%	46	-2.0	183/245/263	80	281	9	5	36%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Jake Anchia 2022 · AA	25	33	49→45	47→40	33	182/230/321	139	262	18	3	38%	5%	46	-2.0	191/236/310	119	268	14	4	33%	5%	46	-2.0	179/223/299	120	245	15	3	33%	4%	35	-1.3
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	35→31	45→50	49→40	36	179/242/305	127	289	13	5	41%	7%	48	-1.9	173/227/316	143	304	19	5	47%	6%	44	-2.1	158/222/310	152	235	22	4	42%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Kellin Deglan 2018 · AA	26	37→36	45→50	42→40	32	188/236/305	116	303	14	5	42%	5%	44	-2.1	201/259/320	119	323	12	5	39%	6%	59	-1.1	174/241/288	114	278	13	2	40%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Evan Skoug 2022 · A	26	32	46→45	45→40	39	173/245/301	128	266	15	5	39%	8%	48	-1.9	192/276/330	138	293	15	5	37%	8%	69	-0.4	166/263/310	143	252	16	2	38%	9%	57	-0.4
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	34→33	47→50	48→45	30	178/225/314	135	284	15	8	42%	4%	43	-2.2	194/265/328	134	314	15	9	40%	7%	64	-0.8	172/260/302	130	280	15	8	41%	8%	52	-1.1
✕Garrett Kennedy 2018 · AA	25	35	41→40	45→30	40	178/236/276	98	254	9	3	33%	6%	37	-2.7	195/260/292	97	285	9	5	32%	7%	52	-1.6	158/237/234	77	232	7	0	33%	8%	24	-1.0
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	35	45	47→30	43	183/250/307	124	260	13	4	34%	8%	51	-1.7	187/258/294	107	293	10	5	37%	8%	51	-1.7	118/199/170	52	253	3	0	50%	9%	-6	-1.3
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	37→34	41→40	48→50	40	186/251/287	100	259	9	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	205/270/324	119	291	11	14	32%	7%	64	-0.8	182/254/327	145	270	14	20	36%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	34→27	41→45	45→40	34	174/219/271	97	274	8	4	39%	5%	27	-3.3	190/236/303	113	293	12	4	38%	5%	43	-2.2	180/226/293	113	272	14	3	38%	5%	36	-1.7
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Garrett Wolforth 2023 · AA	25	34	45	44→40	35	170/237/294	124	298	13	4	45%	7%	43	-2.2	190/246/293	103	313	9	7	40%	6%	46	-2.0	171/213/252	80	273	6	6	38%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Taylor Sparks 2018 · AA	25	32→40	44→45	46→50	33	171/226/282	111	267	13	6	40%	5%	34	-2.8	182/240/314	132	325	15	7	46%	6%	49	-1.8	156/214/298	142	290	17	5	50%	6%	31	-2.3
✕Kody Eaves 2018 · AAA	25	39→43	45	48→50	39	198/250/325	127	280	12	10	33%	6%	56	-1.3	190/241/299	109	273	10	7	32%	6%	45	-2.1	172/224/272	100	248	9	4	33%	6%	29	-2.3
✕Blake Forsythe 2014 · AA	25	36→37	45	50→30	39	184/246/308	124	280	12	4	38%	7%	50	-1.8	197/249/310	113	314	11	5	39%	6%	51	-1.7	182/235/278	96	304	10	0	42%	6%	33	-1.3
✕Matt Winn 2018 · AAA	25	36→34	46→50	45→30	37	186/245/315	128	292	15	3	40%	7%	51	-1.7	179/240/298	119	346	12	3	48%	7%	44	-2.1	147/210/266	119	303	12	0	52%	7%	21	-1.4
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→60	36	176/240/269	93	284	8	11	39%	6%	37	-2.6	186/269/308	122	285	12	21	36%	9%	60	-1.0	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6