Ethan Hearn — OGILVIE

Ethan HearnC Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION178 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .208 / .348

PA24

HR0

K%42

BB%4

BABIP250

ISO174

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	80	13	3	0	2	13	36	2	1	1	163	295	275	570	113	244	37	13	263	64	-4	-0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2021	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	193	34	8	1	6	22	100	5	0	0	176	277	321	599	145	304	44	10	268	68	-9	+0	—	—	+5	-0.4
2022	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	286	61	14	6	12	42	115	7	13	1	213	328	430	758	217	304	34	12	335	113	+5	+2	—	—	+7	1.5
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	263	237	37	6	2	2	20	89	5	6	2	156	237	224	460	68	238	34	8	217	33	-21	+0	—	—	+6	-1.5
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	255	225	52	13	1	10	18	76	9	5	3	231	313	431	745	200	296	30	7	328	108	+2	-0	—	—	+6	0.8
2025	24	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	305	58	8	1	8	24	99	3	5	0	190	256	302	558	111	251	30	7	254	58	-17	+1	—	—	+7	-0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	85	8	2	0	1	8	52	2	1	1	94	189	153	342	59	189	53	8	171	2	-11	-0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2021	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	199	21	5	1	3	16	141	5	0	0	106	191	186	377	80	258	62	7	171	2	-26	+0	—	—	+5	-2.2
2022	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	302	43	9	3	9	26	167	7	13	1	142	227	281	508	139	262	49	8	230	42	-23	+2	—	—	+7	-1.4
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	263	244	25	3	1	1	13	124	5	6	2	102	164	135	299	33	201	47	5	144	-16	-36	+0	—	—	+6	-3.1
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	255	231	39	9	1	8	12	102	9	5	3	169	238	320	558	152	242	40	5	243	51	-15	-0	—	—	+6	-1.0
2025	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	312	49	7	1	6	17	122	3	5	0	157	208	244	451	87	227	37	5	201	22	-31	+1	—	—	+7	-2.3
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	85	8	2	0	1	8	52	2	1	1	94	189	153	342	59	200	53	8	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	80	13	3	0	2	13	36	2	1	1	163	295	275	570	113	244	37	13	263	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	199	21	5	1	3	16	141	5	0	0	106	191	186	377	80	300	62	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	193	34	8	1	6	22	100	5	0	0	176	277	321	599	145	304	44	10	268	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	302	43	9	3	9	26	167	7	13	1	142	227	281	508	139	266	49	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	286	61	14	6	12	42	115	7	13	1	213	328	430	758	217	304	34	12	335	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	263	244	25	3	1	1	13	124	5	6	2	102	164	135	299	33	200	47	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	263	237	37	6	2	2	20	89	5	6	2	156	237	224	460	68	238	34	8	217	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	255	231	39	9	1	8	12	102	9	5	3	169	238	320	558	152	250	40	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	255	225	52	13	1	10	18	76	9	5	3	231	313	431	745	200	296	30	7	328	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	312	49	7	1	6	17	122	3	5	0	157	208	244	451	87	232	37	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	305	58	8	1	8	24	99	3	5	0	190	256	302	558	111	251	30	7	254	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	—	98	88	8	2	0	1	8	52	2	1	1	91	189	148	337	57	189	53	8	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	226	203	21	5	1	3	16	141	5	0	0	103	191	182	373	79	258	62	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	338	302	43	9	3	9	26	167	7	13	1	142	227	281	508	139	262	49	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	263	243	25	3	1	1	13	124	5	6	2	103	164	136	300	33	201	47	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	255	232	39	9	1	8	12	102	9	5	3	168	238	319	557	151	242	40	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	310	49	7	1	6	17	122	3	5	0	158	208	245	453	87	227	37	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	263	243	25	3	1	1	13	124	5	6	2	103	164	136	300	33	201	47	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	255	232	39	9	1	8	12	102	9	5	3	168	238	319	557	151	242	40	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	333	310	49	7	1	6	17	122	3	5	0	158	208	245	453	87	227	37	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	178	170	24	5	0	5	5	84	3	5	1	141	180	259	439	118	235	47	3	186	12	-19	+1	+0	+3	+4	-1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA RAW	CHC	—	112	106	21	4	0	4	4	42	2	4	0	198	241	349	590	151	283	38	4	263	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA RAW	CHC	—	66	62	10	3	0	3	3	27	1	1	1	161	212	355	567	194	219	41	5	251	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AA MLE	CHC	2%	24	23	4	1	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	174	208	348	556	174	249	42	4	218	34	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	202	193	28	6	0	6	6	94	3	5	1	145	183	269	453	124	237	47	3	190	15	-21	+1	+0	+4	+4	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	31%	362	337	57	11	1	8	17	138	5	6	1	169	220	279	499	110	254	38	5	228	41	-26	+1	+0	+6	+8	-1.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	42%	386	358	63	12	1	9	20	143	5	6	1	176	230	291	520	115	257	37	5	236	46	-25	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	48%	399	368	66	13	1	10	22	145	6	6	1	179	237	302	539	122	258	36	6	239	48	-25	+1	-1	+7	+9	-0.9
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	31%	112	104	18	3	0	3	5	43	2	2	0	173	225	288	514	115	255	38	4	217	41	-8	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	42%	162	151	27	5	1	4	8	60	2	3	1	179	230	305	534	126	258	37	5	225	46	-10	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	48%	191	176	31	6	1	4	10	69	3	3	1	176	233	290	523	114	260	36	5	228	48	-12	+0	-0	+3	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	465	431	76	14	2	11	23	172	7	8	2	176	230	295	525	118	259	37	5	224	31	-30	+1	-0	+8	+10	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	106	20	3	15	32	240	10	11	3	176	229	294	523	118	259	37	5	224	31	-42	+1	-0	+12	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2684	2459	375	72	10	56	152	1144	47	48	10	153	216	258	474	106	249	43	6	214	31	-77	+2	-1	+21	+25	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	90	17	2	14	37	277	11	12	2	151	214	257	471	106	245	43	6	214	31	-43	+1	-0	+12	+14	-1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.7	472	11	8	176	228	293	+8	+4	-0.8	-0.4
/162	664	16	11	+11.9	+5.6	-1.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Hearn (OGILVIE)	25	30	40	45	35	162/210/269	108	249	7	6	40%	4%	34	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Garrett Kennedy 2018 · AA	25	35	42→45	45→30	41	181/241/282	101	254	10	3	32%	7%	47	-2.5	195/264/292	97	285	9	5	32%	8%	58	-1.7	153/240/222	70	229	6	0	33%	9%	31	-1.0
✕Brady Lindsly 2023 · AA	25	37	42→40	48→40	37	186/244/282	95	289	10	4	38%	6%	49	-2.4	194/254/282	88	298	9	6	35%	7%	52	-2.2	188/248/263	76	284	8	5	35%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37→36	44→40	47→50	37	181/259/288	107	301	13	8	42%	7%	57	-1.8	210/285/315	105	347	11	13	39%	8%	72	-0.7	215/296/309	95	358	10	19	39%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Kyle Skipworth 2015 · AAA	25	32→36	48→50	42→30	33	176/230/310	134	267	17	4	40%	5%	51	-2.3	179/239/310	131	309	16	5	45%	6%	53	-2.1	139/202/264	125	245	16	0	48%	6%	29	-1.3
✕Tim Susnara 2021 · A	25	36	39→40	47→40	40	175/240/253	78	277	7	5	37%	8%	40	-3.0	200/267/305	105	333	10	6	40%	7%	63	-1.4	166/245/275	109	270	12	0	41%	7%	46	-0.6
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	38→36	41→40	48→50	41	189/253/285	96	258	8	14	29%	6%	53	-2.1	205/270/318	113	284	10	14	30%	6%	67	-1.1	179/250/307	128	258	11	20	33%	6%	54	-0.5
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→28	40→45	46→40	35	176/222/267	91	273	7	4	37%	5%	36	-3.3	194/242/306	112	292	12	4	36%	6%	53	-2.1	187/235/301	114	276	14	3	37%	5%	48	-1.6
✕Aaron Antonini 2023 · AA	25	37	43→40	46→45	45	187/273/288	101	243	12	5	27%	8%	62	-1.4	210/288/330	120	290	13	9	31%	7%	77	-0.3	183/273/312	129	276	14	8	36%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Chris Betts 2022 · AA	25	36→24	44→45	49→40	40	175/256/284	109	300	12	5	43%	9%	55	-2.0	192/259/316	124	382	13	7	49%	8%	63	-1.4	97/178/227	130	200	18	0	59%	9%	11	-0.9
✕Aaron Shackelford 2022 · A	25	32	48→50	50→45	34	176/233/314	138	272	17	5	41%	6%	53	-2.1	185/248/330	145	274	17	9	38%	7%	62	-1.4	175/245/321	146	250	18	10	36%	7%	56	-1.4
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35	45	48→45	31	180/229/304	123	289	13	8	41%	4%	48	-2.5	194/266/310	116	313	12	9	39%	7%	64	-1.3	173/260/278	104	284	10	8	39%	8%	51	-1.5
✕Evan Skoug 2021 · A	25	34	42→45	51→40	38	170/238/271	100	290	9	6	42%	8%	44	-2.8	184/267/320	136	276	15	5	37%	8%	67	-1.1	156/250/294	138	223	16	2	36%	9%	54	-0.7
✕Daniel Salters 2018 · AA	25	40	40	47→30	38	199/247/285	86	282	8	3	32%	5%	50	-2.3	209/264/307	98	291	10	5	30%	5%	61	-1.5	216/273/305	89	302	10	2	30%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Taylor Sparks 2018 · AA	25	32→39	44→45	46→50	33	172/227/283	111	266	13	6	39%	5%	43	-2.8	182/239/305	123	321	13	7	45%	6%	53	-2.1	157/213/284	127	290	14	5	49%	5%	36	-2.5
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	40→45	48→40	36	174/227/260	85	258	8	5	35%	5%	37	-3.3	193/249/301	108	284	12	4	34%	6%	55	-2.0	205/259/305	100	287	9	2	30%	5%	56	-0.6
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	37→33	45→50	49→40	38	187/249/317	130	285	12	5	37%	7%	59	-1.7	176/231/307	131	297	16	5	44%	6%	50	-2.3	154/228/294	140	225	19	5	40%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/241/266	89	277	7	11	37%	6%	45	-2.7	186/269/301	115	281	11	21	35%	9%	63	-1.4	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Matt Winn 2018 · AAA	25	36→34	45	45→30	37	183/242/300	117	291	13	3	40%	7%	52	-2.2	180/240/295	115	335	11	3	46%	7%	50	-2.3	152/214/269	117	296	11	0	50%	7%	32	-1.4
✕Ben Ramirez 2023 · AAA	24	40→37	44→40	48→45	38	203/250/318	115	279	12	3	31%	5%	59	-1.7	195/243/286	91	288	9	7	34%	5%	49	-2.4	183/232/263	79	273	7	7	34%	5%	36	-1.8
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps