Ethan Hearn
C Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+CHC | 255 | .231/.313/.431 | 10 | 5 | 53 | — | .173/.242/.325 |
| 2025 | 24 | AACHC | 333 | .190/.256/.302 | 8 | 5 | 22 | — | .157/.208/.253 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AACHC | 186 | .177/.226/.337 | 7 | 5 | 9 | — | .130/.172/.243 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCHC | 2 | .174/.220/.284 | 0 | 0 | 39 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 45 | .176/.224/.288 | 1 | 1 | 41 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 98 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 295 | 275 | 570 | 113 | 244 | 37 | 13 | 263 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 226 | 193 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 100 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 277 | 321 | 599 | 145 | 304 | 44 | 10 | 268 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 338 | 286 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 115 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 213 | 328 | 430 | 758 | 217 | 304 | 34 | 12 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 263 | 237 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 156 | 237 | 224 | 460 | 68 | 238 | 34 | 8 | 217 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 225 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 76 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 313 | 431 | 745 | 200 | 296 | 30 | 7 | 328 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 305 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 99 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 190 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 111 | 251 | 30 | 7 | 254 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 74 | 69 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 145 | 203 | 319 | 522 | 174 | 206 | 43 | 4 | 233 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 112 | 106 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 198 | 241 | 349 | 590 | 151 | 283 | 38 | 4 | 263 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 98 | 85 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 94 | 189 | 153 | 342 | 59 | 191 | 53 | 8 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 226 | 199 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 141 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 186 | 377 | 80 | 262 | 62 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 338 | 300 | 45 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 160 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 150 | 239 | 300 | 539 | 150 | 261 | 47 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 263 | 244 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 117 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 111 | 172 | 148 | 319 | 37 | 202 | 44 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 231 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 96 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 242 | 325 | 567 | 152 | 239 | 38 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 312 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 157 | 208 | 253 | 461 | 96 | 225 | 37 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 74 | 70 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 149 | 214 | 363 | 114 | 181 | 51 | 3 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 112 | 107 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 150 | 188 | 262 | 449 | 112 | 250 | 46 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 98 | 85 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 94 | 189 | 153 | 342 | 59 | 200 | 53 | 8 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 98 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 295 | 275 | 570 | 113 | 244 | 37 | 13 | 263 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 226 | 199 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 141 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 186 | 377 | 80 | 300 | 62 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 226 | 193 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 100 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 277 | 321 | 599 | 145 | 304 | 44 | 10 | 268 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 338 | 300 | 45 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 160 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 150 | 239 | 300 | 539 | 150 | 271 | 47 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 338 | 286 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 115 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 213 | 328 | 430 | 758 | 217 | 304 | 34 | 12 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 263 | 244 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 117 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 111 | 172 | 148 | 319 | 37 | 205 | 44 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 263 | 237 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 156 | 237 | 224 | 460 | 68 | 238 | 34 | 8 | 217 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 231 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 96 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 242 | 325 | 567 | 152 | 246 | 38 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 225 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 76 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 313 | 431 | 745 | 200 | 296 | 30 | 7 | 328 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 312 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 157 | 208 | 253 | 461 | 96 | 228 | 37 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 305 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 99 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 190 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 111 | 251 | 30 | 7 | 254 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 177 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 136 | 177 | 249 | 426 | 113 | 232 | 48 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 186 | 175 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 177 | 226 | 337 | 563 | 160 | 255 | 40 | 4 | 251 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 98 | 88 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 189 | 148 | 337 | 57 | 191 | 53 | 8 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 226 | 203 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 141 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 191 | 182 | 373 | 79 | 262 | 62 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 338 | 300 | 45 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 160 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 150 | 239 | 300 | 539 | 150 | 261 | 47 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 263 | 243 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 117 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 111 | 172 | 148 | 320 | 37 | 202 | 44 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 232 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 96 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 242 | 323 | 565 | 151 | 239 | 38 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 310 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 208 | 255 | 463 | 97 | 225 | 37 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 175 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 137 | 177 | 251 | 429 | 114 | 223 | 48 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 255 | 232 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 96 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 242 | 323 | 565 | 151 | 239 | 38 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 333 | 310 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 208 | 255 | 463 | 97 | 225 | 37 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 175 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 137 | 177 | 251 | 429 | 114 | 223 | 48 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 2% | 236 | 221 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 219 | 284 | 503 | 111 | 254 | 37 | 4 | 226 | 39 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 220 | 284 | 504 | 110 | 257 | 50 | 0 | 226 | 39 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 168 | 157 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 176 | 223 | 288 | 511 | 112 | 256 | 37 | 4 | 229 | 41 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 224 | 288 | 511 | 111 | 258 | 38 | 4 | 230 | 41 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 222 | 262 | 484 | 95 | 250 | 38 | 4 | 230 | 24 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 100 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 246 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 165 | 220 | 257 | 477 | 92 | 248 | 38 | 4 | 230 | 24 | -45 | +3 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1992 | 1822 | 261 | 51 | 8 | 41 | 111 | 887 | 39 | 40 | 9 | 143 | 208 | 248 | 456 | 104 | 241 | 45 | 6 | 203 | 24 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 289 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 145 | 210 | 249 | 459 | 104 | 244 | 44 | 6 | 203 | 24 | -46 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 112 PAwOBA .256 → .193 (−63)K% 37.5% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 2.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 18.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.94% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .256 → .193; ISO .151 → .108; BABIP .283 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 74 PAwOBA .227 → .163 (−64)K% 43.2% → 51.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 51.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 2.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 10.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .227 → .163; ISO .174 → .111; BABIP .206 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 333 PAwOBA .248 → .200 (−48)K% 29.7% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.90% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 17.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .248 → .200; ISO .111 → .093; BABIP .251 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 255 PAwOBA .323 → .246 (−77)K% 29.8% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.80% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.53% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.79% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.72% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.83% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .246; ISO .200 → .155; BABIP .296 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 263 PAwOBA .211 → .150 (−61)K% 33.8% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.84% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.22% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.24% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 16.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .211 → .150; ISO .068 → .040; BABIP .238 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 338 PAwOBA .329 → .234 (−94)K% 34.0% → 47.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.02% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 47.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.43% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.96% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 15.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.19% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 2.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .234; ISO .217 → .153; BABIP .304 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 226 PAwOBA .267 → .173 (−94)K% 44.2% → 62.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.25% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 62.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.015 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.36% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .267 → .173; ISO .145 → .086; BABIP .304 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Cubs 2 · 98 PAwOBA .265 → .172 (−93)K% 36.7% → 52.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 52.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 15.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .265 → .172; ISO .113 → .072; BABIP .244 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).