Victor Villanueva prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Victor Villanueva P FCL Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%22.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	9	0	11	42	5	4	1	0%	1.2	11.9%	9.5%	2.4%	2.4%	2.45	4.61	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	9	0	11	42	5	4	1	0%	1.2	11.9%	9.5%	2.4%	2.4%	2.45	4.46	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	22	0	33	133	16	3	0	0%	1.5	8.2%	2.8%	5.4%	0.0%	1.64	2.77	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	22	0	33	133	16	3	0	0%	1.5	12.0%	2.3%	9.8%	0.0%	1.64	2.40	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	20	98	15	8	6	0%	1.3	10.4%	10.2%	0.2%	8.6%	5.75	8.22	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	16	0	20	98	15	8	6	0%	1.3	15.3%	8.2%	7.1%	6.1%	5.75	6.64	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	15	0	22	94	31	10	3	0%	1.5	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	4.0%	2.86	5.07	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	15	0	22	94	31	10	3	0%	1.5	33.0%	10.6%	22.3%	3.2%	2.86	3.42	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	30	147	30	25	2	38%	1.9	15.1%	20.8%	-5.7%	0.0%	9.60	4.46	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	30	147	30	25	2	38%	1.9	15.1%	20.8%	-5.7%	0.0%	9.60	4.46	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	30	147	30	25	2	38%	1.9	20.4%	17.0%	3.4%	1.4%	9.60	4.47	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	11	0	10	46	9	5	0	0%	0.9	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	0.0%	5.59	2.82	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	11	0	10	46	9	5	0	0%	0.9	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	0.0%	5.59	2.82	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	11	0	10	46	9	5	0	0%	0.9	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	0.0%	5.59	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.74	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		89	6	126	560	78	66	13	7%	1.4	14.0%	11.8%	2.2%	2.3%	4.79	4.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	10	200	889	124	105	21	7%	1.4	14.0%	11.8%	2.2%	2.3%	4.79	4.69	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Villanueva (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.8%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.74	23.0%	10.7%	20	-0.07	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	89
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	87
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	84
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	84