Breidy Encarnación prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Breidy Encarnación P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%23.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	13	7	47	179	57	11	2	54%	3.6	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	1.6%	1.91	3.10	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	13	7	47	179	57	11	2	54%	3.6	31.8%	6.1%	25.7%	1.1%	1.91	1.93	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	1	22	107	21	18	4	11%	2.4	13.3%	21.0%	-7.7%	5.2%	8.18	7.51	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	1	22	107	21	18	4	11%	2.4	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	3.7%	8.18	6.01	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	31	122	40	12	1	29%	2.2	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	1.5%	2.61	3.30	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	31	122	40	12	1	29%	2.2	32.8%	9.8%	23.0%	0.8%	2.61	2.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	0	75	307	87	33	3	0%	1.8	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	1.1%	2.03	3.29	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	0	75	307	87	33	3	0%	1.8	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	1.1%	2.03	3.29	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	0	75	307	87	33	3	0%	1.8	28.3%	10.7%	17.6%	1.0%	2.03	2.62	—
2024	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	0	3	13	3	3	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.07	—
2024	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	0	3	13	3	3	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.07	—
2024	23	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	0	3	13	3	3	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	45	0	47	199	47	21	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.43	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	196	46	20	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.43	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	29	13	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	49	208	49	22	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.07	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	89	24	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		80	12	178	728	153	87	14	15%	2.2	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	1.9%	2.83	3.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	13	200	816	172	98	15	15%	2.2	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	1.9%	2.83	3.88	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Breidy Encarnación (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	23.2%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.44	23.4%	13.1%	94	-0.03	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	88
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	87
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	82
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	82
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	82
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	81
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	81
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	81
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	23.4%	10.4%	1.15	4.45
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99