Francisco Alvarez

C New York Mets
Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 233 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 2.953S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202422MLBNYM342.237/.309/.4031111052.4
202523MLBNYM277.256/.339/.4471101282.5
202624MLBNYM420.233/.311/.3991601031.9
2027PROJ25MLBNYM450.222/.302/.4041911021.9
2028PROJ98% MLB26MLBNYM454.221/.302/.4041911021.9
2029PROJ98% MLB27MLBNYM452.220/.301/.4011911011.9
Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 5.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.953First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$7M2030Arb-4$9M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Chase%90
Whiff%80
Bat Spd80
Avg EV74
Barrel%73
xwOBA55
Form.216/.278/.393 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .227/.305/.412
CompsRyan Lavarnway (age 24) · Taylor Teagarden (age 25) · Welington Castillo (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 105102vR 93
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .302 / .404
PA450
HR19
K%28
BB%9
BABIP272
ISO185
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: -1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +8.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+8POSREP: +9.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +2.20+2.2WAR
0.01.42.72.21.91.91.727282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
Whiff%
807.8%
xAVG
190.226
POWER50
Barrel%
7311.7
Avg EV
7490.8
Bat Spd
8074.5
EYE50
Chase%
9018.8%
SPEED40
Sprint
1025.3
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%32%▼▼35% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 29%
BB%7%▼▼4% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.177·.160 over 75 AB (60d) · proj .185
HR/BB6.7%·6.2% over 48 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%
BABIP.283·.311 over 45 BIP (60d) · proj .281
SLASH.216/.278/.393▼▼proj .227/.305/.412
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 703 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
171
532
—
wRC+
131
103
◀◀L
wOBA
362
321
◀L
ISO
250
159
◀◀L
BABIP
258
312
▶▶R
K%
20.5%
26.3%
◀◀L
BB%
12.9%
8.3%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2023
Service   2.953 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$3M+2.2$18M+$15M
2028Arb-2$4M+1.9$14M+$11M
2029Arb-3$7M+1.9$13M+$8M
2030Arb-4$9M+1.7$11M+$4M
Totals $23M $56M +$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201917 ROKGCL Mets — 3126 12402 441 01 4625488461.395 385500 1313 589 182 — — — — — —
202119 A+Brooklyn Cyclones — 333279 6913122 40828 63 247358538895 290260 2512 384 112 — — — — — —
202119 ASt. Lucie Mets — 6748 20502 1573 22 4175766461.222 229450 1022 523 193 — — — — — —
202220 AAASyracuse Mets — 199158 37609 34525 00 234386443829 209283 2617 371 91 — — — — — —
202220 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies — 296253 7016018 36713 00 277373553927 277310 2412 398 127 — — — — — —
202321 MLBNew York Mets — 423382 8012025 341106 20 209284437722 228222 268 318 105 +2 +0 +21 +8 +9 4.2
202321 AAASyracuse Mets — 1916 4102 380 10 2503686881.056 438333 4216 444 91 — — — — — —
202422 MLBNew York Mets — 342308 7314211 30862 11 237309403711 166291 259 316 105 +2 -0 +9 +6 +7 2.4
202523 MLBNew York Mets — 277246 6312111 27734 00 256339447787 191321 2610 350 128 +9 +0 +2 +7 +6 2.5
202523 AAASyracuse Mets — 10793 244012 11333 00 2583556881.043 430250 3110 441 88 — — — — — —
202523 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies — 2422 6001 141 00 273333409742 136294 174 335 83 — — — — — —
202624 MLBNew York Mets — 420373 8714016 391294 00 233311399710 166309 319 317 103 +2 +0 +1 +8 +9 1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14621309 30352363 13039816 31 231308420728 189281 279 323 105 +9 +0 +32 +29 +32 10.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201917 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 3127 10302 361 01 3704527041.155 333391 1910 437 182 — — — — — —
202119 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 333290 6512120 291068 63 224312479791 255254 329 334 112 — — — — — —
202119 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 6753 20502 10103 22 3775005851.085 208411 1515 454 193 — — — — — —
202220 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 199169 35606 23655 00 207320349669 142278 3312 303 91 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLEBinghamton Rumble Ponies — 296265 7015017 24853 00 264332513845 249306 298 356 127 — — — — — —
202321 MLB MLENew York Mets — 423382 8213025 341106 20 215289445734 230222 268 323 105 +2 +0 +21 +8 +9 4.2
202321 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 1917 3101 2100 10 176263412675 235293 5311 302 91 — — — — — —
202422 MLB MLENew York Mets — 342308 7515211 30862 11 244315412727 169291 259 323 105 +2 -0 +9 +6 +7 2.4
202523 MLB MLENew York Mets — 277246 6513111 27734 00 264347459806 195321 2610 357 128 +9 +0 +2 +7 +6 2.5
202523 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 10796 17307 8403 00 177262427689 250212 377 298 88 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEBinghamton Rumble Ponies — 2422 6001 151 00 273333409742 136291 214 291 83 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLENew York Mets — 420376 8915016 381294 00 237313404718 168309 319 321 103 +2 +0 +1 +8 +9 1.9
201917 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 3127 10302 361 01 3704527041.155 333421 1910 437 182 — — — — — —
201917 ROK RAWGCL Mets — 3126 12402 441 01 4625488461.395 385500 1313 589 182 — — — — — —
202119 A+ MLE2 teams — 400342 8517122 4011611 85 249346497843 249299 2910 354 126 — — — — — —
202119 A+ RAW2 teams — 400327 8918124 558911 85 272394554948 281294 2214 407 126 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLE2 teams — 495434 10320023 471508 00 237323442766 205300 309 335 113 — — — — — —
202220 AA RAW2 teams — 495411 10722027 701238 00 260378511889 251300 2514 387 113 — — — — — —
202321 MLB MLE2 teams — 442399 8514026 361206 30 213288444732 231232 278 322 104 +2 +1 +21 +8 +10 4.2
202321 MLB RAW2 teams — 442398 8413027 371186 30 211288447735 236224 278 323 104 +2 +1 +21 +8 +10 4.2
202422 MLB MLENew York Mets — 342308 7515211 30862 11 244315412727 169300 259 323 105 +2 -0 +9 +6 +7 2.4
202422 MLB RAWNew York Mets — 342308 7314211 30862 11 237309403711 166291 259 316 105 +2 -0 +9 +6 +7 2.4
202523 MLB MLE3 teams — 408364 8816119 361188 00 242324448771 206304 299 338 115 +7 +0 +2 +7 +9 2.6
202523 MLB RAW3 teams — 408361 9316124 391108 00 258343507850 249304 2710 373 115 +7 +0 +2 +7 +9 2.6
202624 MLB MLENew York Mets — 420376 8915016 381294 00 237313404718 168313 319 321 103 +2 +0 +1 +8 +9 1.9
202624 MLB RAWNew York Mets — 420373 8714016 391294 00 233311399710 166309 319 317 103 +2 +0 +1 +8 +9 1.9
201917 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 3127 10302 361 01 3704527041.155 333391 1910 437 182 — — — — — —
202119 A+ MLE2 teams — 400346 8517122 4011611 85 246346491837 246280 2910 354 126 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLE2 teams — 495437 10320023 471508 00 236323439762 204295 309 335 113 — — — — — —
202321 MLB MLE2 teams — 442397 8514026 361206 30 214288446734 232225 278 322 104 — — — — — —
202422 MLB MLENew York Mets — 342307 7515211 30862 11 244315414728 169291 259 323 105 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLE3 teams — 408361 8816119 361188 00 244324452775 208291 299 338 115 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLENew York Mets — 420375 8915016 381294 00 237313405719 168309 319 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 MLB MLENew York Mets — 342307 7515211 30862 11 244315414728 169291 259 323 105 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLE3 teams — 408361 8816119 361188 00 244324452775 208291 299 338 115 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLENew York Mets — 420375 8915016 381294 00 237313405719 168309 319 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLENYM 100% 450401 9216119 411285 11 228307413720 185281 289 319 102 +1 -0 -0 +8 +10 2.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXNYM 100% 450401 8915119 411285 11 222302404706 182272 289 313 102 +1 -0 -0 +8 +10 1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLENYM 98% 463412 9316119 431325 10 227307412720 185281 299 319 102 +1 +0 -0 +8 +10 2.0
202927 MLB MLENYM 98% 461411 9316119 421325 10 226306409716 183280 299 317 101 +1 +0 -0 +8 +10 1.9
203028 MLB MLENYM 98% 456406 9216119 421325 10 224304405709 180279 299 315 99 -0 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.7
203129 MLB MLENYM 98% 445397 8815118 411304 10 222301398699 176277 299 311 97 -2 +0 -2 +8 +10 1.4
203230 MLB MLENYM 98% 435388 8414017 401284 10 218298390687 171275 299 306 93 -4 +0 -3 +8 +9 1.2
203331 MLB MLENYM 98% 407363 7813016 371224 00 214292379671 165271 309 300 89 -5 +0 -3 +7 +9 0.8
203432 MLB MLENYM 98% 377338 7011014 331143 00 208286365650 157265 309 291 83 -8 +0 -4 +7 +8 0.4
203533 MLB MLENYM 98% 338303 6210012 291053 00 201277349626 148259 319 281 76 -9 +0 -5 +6 +7 -0.1
202826 MLB CTXNYM 98% 454404 9015119 421295 10 221302404706 182272 289 313 102 +1 +0 -0 +8 +10 1.9
202927 MLB CTXNYM 98% 452402 8915119 421305 10 220301401702 181271 299 312 101 +1 +0 -0 +8 +10 1.9
203028 MLB CTXNYM 98% 447398 8714118 411295 10 218299396695 178270 299 309 99 -0 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.7
203129 MLB CTXNYM 98% 436389 8414018 401274 10 216296390686 174269 299 305 97 -2 +0 -2 +8 +9 1.4
203230 MLB CTXNYM 98% 426380 8013017 391264 10 213292381674 169266 309 301 93 -3 +0 -2 +8 +9 1.1
203331 MLB CTXNYM 98% 399356 7412015 361194 00 208287371658 163262 309 294 89 -5 +0 -3 +7 +9 0.8
203432 MLB CTXNYM 98% 369330 6711013 331123 00 202281357638 155257 309 286 83 -7 +0 -4 +7 +8 0.3
203533 MLB CTXNYM 98% 331296 589011 291023 00 195273341614 146251 319 276 76 -9 +0 -4 +6 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 47764264 9321556193 432137249 81 219298394691 175272 299 308 101 -18 +1 +15 +88 +103 19.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 12721126 591877 10 219299393692 174273 299 308 101 -2 +0 +2 +12 +14 2.6
Career— MLE — 63705669 12872279272 578184878 188 227307414721 187283 299 318 101 -17 +1 +14 +97 +115 21.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 13123128 591898 21 227307415722 189282 299 318 101 -2 +0 +2 +12 +14 2.6