Junior Santos — OGILVIE

Junior Santos P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 244 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%14.5%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%-1.8%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	16	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	14	10	50	191	39	6	1	71%	3.6	13.9%	3.9%	10.0%	0.7%	2.52	2.83	—
2018	16	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	14	10	50	191	39	6	1	71%	3.6	20.4%	3.1%	17.3%	0.5%	2.52	2.16	—
2021	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	16	96	429	79	38	8	76%	4.6	13.6%	10.5%	3.2%	2.5%	4.59	4.62	—
2021	19	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	21	16	96	429	79	38	8	76%	4.6	18.4%	8.9%	9.6%	1.9%	4.59	3.73	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	23	117	513	105	44	4	88%	4.5	15.8%	9.9%	5.9%	1.1%	4.47	3.60	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	23	117	513	105	44	4	88%	4.5	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	0.8%	4.47	2.88	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	28	15	97	439	71	41	10	54%	3.5	13.1%	10.3%	2.8%	3.0%	5.94	4.92	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	28	15	97	439	71	41	10	54%	3.5	16.2%	9.3%	6.8%	2.3%	5.94	4.24	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	31	1	52	235	45	26	6	3%	1.7	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	3.7%	4.99	5.35	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	31	1	52	235	45	26	6	3%	1.7	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	3.7%	4.99	5.35	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	31	1	52	235	45	26	6	3%	1.7	19.1%	11.1%	8.1%	2.6%	4.99	4.36	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	54	0	62	257	49	35	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.0%	0.5%	1.9%	2.03	4.76	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	54	0	62	257	49	35	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.0%	0.5%	1.9%	2.03	4.76	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	54	0	62	257	49	35	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.6%	5.4%	1.6%	2.03	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	67	0	70	296	43	48	9	0%	1.0	14.5%	16.2%	-1.8%	2.9%	5.90	5.90	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	67	0	70	296	47	46	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	15.5%	0.6%	2.9%	5.70	5.68	-0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	48	44	9	0%	1.0	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	3.0%	5.61	5.61	-0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	47	42	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.9%	1.9%	3.1%	5.60	5.63	-0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	45	41	9	0%	1.0	16.7%	15.0%	1.7%	3.2%	5.66	5.73	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	21	20	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	15.5%	0.6%	2.9%	5.70	5.68	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	42	0	44	186	31	28	5	0%	1.0	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	3.0%	5.61	5.61	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	49	0	51	215	36	32	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.9%	1.9%	3.1%	5.60	5.63	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	37	33	7	0%	1.0	16.7%	15.0%	1.7%	3.2%	5.66	5.73	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	124	113	23	0%	1.0	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	3.0%	5.64	5.28	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	128	26	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	3.0%	5.64	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		174	65	474	2064	299	215	44	37%	2.7	14.5%	10.4%	4.1%	2.1%	4.33	4.36	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	27	200	871	126	91	19	37%	2.7	14.5%	10.4%	4.1%	2.1%	4.33	4.36	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	14.5%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.64	16.5%	1.3%	206	-0.26	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	79
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	78
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	78
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	77
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	75
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	75
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	75
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	75
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	74
Seth McClung R 2006 · 5.28 FIP	25	SW	5.28	12.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.300	4.60	17.6%	5.6%	179	-0.68	2.52	430	74
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	74
Octavio Acosta R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	13.8%	16.1%	2.6%	.328	4.03	16.2%	7.5%	245	-1.39	3.88	333	73
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	73
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	16.1%	15.4%	1.16	5.70
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37