Junior Santos
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 24
RHP
6'7" / 244 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152143vR 134
ERA5.95
FIP5.95
K%13.6%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%-2.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16 | ROK | GCL Mets | 14 | 10 | 50 | 191 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 71% | 3.6 | 13.9% | 3.9% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 2.52 | 2.83 | — |
| 2018 | 16 | ROK | GCL Mets | 14 | 10 | 50 | 191 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 71% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 3.1% | 17.3% | 0.5% | 2.52 | 2.16 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 21 | 16 | 96 | 429 | 79 | 38 | 8 | 76% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.64 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 21 | 16 | 96 | 429 | 79 | 38 | 8 | 76% | 4.6 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 4.59 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 23 | 117 | 513 | 105 | 44 | 4 | 88% | 4.5 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 4.47 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 23 | 117 | 513 | 105 | 44 | 4 | 88% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 0.8% | 4.47 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 28 | 15 | 97 | 439 | 71 | 41 | 10 | 54% | 3.5 | 13.1% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.94 | 5.06 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 28 | 15 | 97 | 439 | 71 | 41 | 10 | 54% | 3.5 | 16.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 5.94 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 31 | 1 | 52 | 235 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 3% | 1.7 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.99 | 5.85 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 31 | 1 | 52 | 235 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 3% | 1.7 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 54 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 49 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.03 | 4.80 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 54 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 49 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13.6% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 2.03 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 39 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 15.7% | -2.1% | 3.0% | 5.95 | 5.95 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.67 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.50 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.67 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.50 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 52 | 45 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.13 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 138 | 120 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 65 | 474 | 2064 | 299 | 215 | 48 | 37% | 2.7 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.47 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 27 | 200 | 871 | 126 | 91 | 20 | 37% | 2.7 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Junior Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.95 | 13.6% | 15.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.52 | 16.2% | 2.1% | 136 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 86 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 86 |
| Ted Stuka R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 83 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 83 |
| Dylan Spacke R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.23 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.74 | 13.6% | 0.2% | 52 | -0.49 | 2.08 | 205 | 80 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 79 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 79 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.38 | 15.6% | 19.4% | 2.1% | .242 | 5.71 | 15.3% | 1.9% | 80 | +0.33 | 5.38 | 232 | 79 |
| Blake Hickman R 2026 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 79 |
| Kyle Miller R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 77 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 77 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 77 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 77 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 77 |
| James Pugliese R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 218 | 76 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 76 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2029 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 76 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 76 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 76 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 15.3% | 14.6% | 1.14 | 5.71 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |