Andres Diaz prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Andres Diaz P ACL Royals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%22.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	12	0	21	80	22	4	1	0%	1.8	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	1.7%	3.38	3.27	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	12	0	21	80	22	4	1	0%	1.8	27.5%	5.0%	22.5%	1.2%	3.38	2.21	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	13	13	53	222	43	6	1	100%	4.1	13.2%	3.4%	9.8%	0.6%	1.87	2.76	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	13	13	53	222	43	6	1	100%	4.1	19.4%	2.7%	16.7%	0.5%	1.87	2.06	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Blue	15	1	29	124	25	5	3	7%	1.9	13.7%	5.0%	8.7%	3.4%	3.77	4.44	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Blue	15	1	29	124	25	5	3	7%	1.9	20.2%	4.0%	16.1%	2.4%	3.77	3.24	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	0	28	113	39	3	4	0%	2.5	23.5%	3.3%	20.2%	4.8%	4.55	4.17	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	11	0	28	113	39	3	4	0%	2.5	34.5%	2.7%	31.9%	3.5%	4.55	2.49	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	26	121	20	8	2	40%	2.6	12.7%	7.3%	5.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.74	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	26	121	20	8	2	40%	2.6	12.7%	7.3%	5.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.74	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	26	121	20	8	2	40%	2.6	16.5%	6.6%	9.9%	1.7%	4.78	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	19	7	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.29	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	3.91	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		61	18	157	660	103	31	16	30%	2.6	15.6%	4.7%	10.9%	2.5%	3.38	3.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	23	200	841	131	40	21	30%	2.6	15.6%	4.7%	10.9%	2.5%	3.38	3.74	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andres Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.8%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.1%	14.3%	20	-0.02	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	77
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	76
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	75
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	75
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	75
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	75
Angel Guzman R 2007 · 3.13 FIP	25	SW	3.13	20.3%	7.0%	1.6%	.330	4.25	19.2%	11.4%	61	+1.12	3.13	147	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	74
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	74
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	73
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	72
Jonathan Albaladejo R 2008 · 3.46 FIP	25	SU	3.46	22.4%	10.3%	1.7%	.368	5.02	14.0%	3.8%	46	+1.56	2.30	173	72
Andrew Cashner R 2012 · 3.39 FIP	25	SU	3.39	26.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.306	3.33	19.1%	12.5%	483	-0.06	2.94	1,185	72