Kerry Carpenter

RF Detroit Tigers

Age 29 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.331 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBD6040-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBDET	296	.284/.345/.587	18	0	158	2.3
2025	27	MLBDET	464	.252/.290/.497	26	1	121	1.3
2026	28	MLBDET	259	.208/.277/.416	13	0	95	-0.3
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	217	.249/.307/.486	12	1	124	0.8
2028PROJ	30	MLBDET	365	.245/.303/.477	20	1	121	0.9
2029PROJ	31	MLBDET	350	.240/.297/.466	18	0	116	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.331First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%84

xwOBA75

Avg EV74

Chase%69

Whiff%61

Bat Spd59

CompsPedro Álvarez (age 29) · Hank Blalock (age 29) · Jared Walsh (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 102124vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .307 / .486

PA217

HR12

K%26

BB%6

BABIP284

ISO237

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

619.8%

xAVG

410.244

POWER60

Barrel%

8413.3

Avg EV

7490.7

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE40

Chase%

6927.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

3726.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 833 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

738

—

wRC+

141

▶▶R

wOBA

247

376

▶▶R

ISO

158

285

▶▶R

BABIP

190

302

▶▶R

25.3%

24.7%

—

BB%

5.3%

5.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	252	312	485	798	233	303	28	5	347	126	+4	+0	-1	-5	+2	-0.0
2022	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	138	118	39	11	1	8	17	17	2	2	7	331	423	644	1.067	314	330	12	12	456	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	262	240	73	16	0	22	16	72	5	1	3	304	360	646	1.006	342	347	27	6	431	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	459	418	116	17	2	20	32	115	8	6	0	278	341	471	812	194	338	25	7	359	131	+17	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2023	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	40	35	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	171	275	286	561	114	227	30	12	262	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	296	264	75	16	5	18	22	75	4	0	2	284	345	587	932	303	328	25	7	395	158	+20	-1	-0	-3	+6	2.3
2024	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	333	33	7	253	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	464	433	109	18	5	26	18	106	7	1	1	252	290	497	787	245	274	23	4	339	121	+12	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.3
2025	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	100	25	6	230	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	259	231	48	5	2	13	18	75	5	0	0	208	277	416	693	208	240	29	7	302	95	-1	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1591	1449	374	60	15	83	96	403	27	7	3	258	314	492	806	234	299	25	6	350	123	+43	+0	-13	-22	+34	4.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	169	38	11	2	7	13	26	5	6	0	225	299	438	737	213	217	14	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	426	97	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	228	275	362	637	134	269	24	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	252	312	485	798	233	303	28	5	355	126	+4	+0	-1	-5	+2	-0.0
2022	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	138	122	34	9	1	6	13	20	2	2	7	279	358	516	874	238	285	14	9	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	262	247	60	12	0	18	9	88	5	1	3	243	284	510	794	267	297	34	3	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	459	421	118	17	2	21	29	115	8	6	0	280	338	480	818	200	338	25	6	361	131	+17	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2023	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	40	37	6	1	0	1	3	14	0	0	0	162	225	270	495	108	210	35	8	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	296	268	76	16	5	19	21	75	4	0	2	284	345	593	938	310	328	25	7	402	158	+20	-1	-0	-3	+6	2.3
2024	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	274	40	7	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	464	437	111	18	5	27	18	106	7	1	1	254	294	503	798	249	274	23	4	347	121	+12	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.3
2025	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	91	25	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	259	233	49	5	2	14	18	75	5	0	0	210	281	429	710	219	240	29	7	309	95	-1	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	169	38	11	2	7	13	26	5	6	0	225	299	438	737	213	221	14	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	426	97	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	228	275	362	637	134	277	24	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	472	121	26	2	30	28	141	10	3	10	256	312	511	822	254	299	27	5	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	513	461	138	31	2	36	39	121	10	3	10	299	367	610	976	310	332	24	8	419	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	458	124	18	2	22	32	129	8	6	0	271	329	463	792	192	331	26	6	348	122	+13	+1	-5	-5	+11	1.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	499	453	122	18	2	21	37	127	8	6	0	269	335	457	792	188	330	25	7	351	122	+13	+1	-5	-5	+11	1.5
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	282	79	17	5	19	22	81	4	0	2	280	341	578	919	298	324	26	7	391	151	+19	-1	-0	-3	+7	2.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	311	278	78	17	5	18	23	80	4	0	2	281	341	572	913	291	328	26	7	388	151	+19	-1	-0	-3	+7	2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	452	113	18	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	250	291	498	789	248	269	23	4	341	117	+10	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	480	448	111	18	5	27	19	110	7	1	1	248	287	491	778	243	268	23	4	335	117	+10	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.2
2026	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	259	233	49	5	2	14	18	75	5	0	0	210	281	429	710	219	238	29	7	309	95	-1	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
2026	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	259	231	48	5	2	13	18	75	5	0	0	208	277	416	693	208	240	29	7	302	95	-1	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	171	38	11	2	7	13	26	5	6	0	222	299	433	732	211	217	14	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	430	97	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	226	275	358	633	133	269	24	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	470	121	26	2	30	28	141	10	3	10	257	312	513	825	255	295	27	5	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	456	124	18	2	22	32	129	8	6	0	272	329	465	794	193	328	26	6	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	282	79	17	5	19	22	81	4	0	2	280	341	578	919	298	325	26	7	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	451	113	18	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	251	291	499	790	248	268	23	4	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	259	234	49	5	2	14	18	75	5	0	0	209	281	427	709	218	240	29	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	282	79	17	5	19	22	81	4	0	2	280	341	578	919	298	325	26	7	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	451	113	18	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	251	291	499	790	248	268	23	4	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	259	234	49	5	2	14	18	75	5	0	0	209	281	427	709	218	240	29	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	100%	322	295	74	11	3	18	19	83	5	2	0	254	312	500	812	246	289	26	6	352	124	+9	+0	-2	-3	+7	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	100%	217	198	49	7	2	12	13	56	4	1	0	249	307	486	793	237	284	26	6	344	124	+6	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	365	334	83	12	3	20	22	96	6	1	0	251	308	491	799	240	286	26	6	347	121	+9	+0	-4	-4	+8	0.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	100%	350	320	78	11	3	19	21	93	6	0	0	246	302	480	782	234	282	27	6	340	116	+7	+0	-5	-4	+8	0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	DET	100%	331	304	73	10	3	18	19	90	5	0	0	239	295	464	759	225	276	27	6	330	110	+4	+0	-6	-4	+7	0.2
2031	33	MLB MLE	DET	100%	301	277	64	8	3	15	17	83	4	0	0	231	286	446	731	215	268	28	6	319	102	+1	+0	-6	-3	+7	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	365	334	82	12	3	20	22	96	6	1	0	245	303	477	780	232	281	26	6	339	121	+9	+0	-4	-4	+8	0.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	100%	350	320	77	11	3	18	21	93	6	0	0	240	297	466	763	225	277	27	6	332	116	+7	+0	-5	-4	+8	0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	DET	100%	331	304	72	10	3	17	19	90	5	0	0	234	290	451	741	217	271	27	6	323	110	+4	+0	-6	-4	+7	0.2
2031	33	MLB CTX	DET	100%	301	277	63	8	3	15	17	83	4	0	0	226	281	433	714	207	264	28	6	312	102	+1	+0	-6	-3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2938	2684	668	101	27	153	175	765	48	8	3	249	306	478	783	229	289	26	6	339	113	+63	+0	-34	-37	+64	5.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	148	22	6	34	39	169	11	2	1	249	307	478	785	229	289	26	6	339	113	+14	+0	-8	-8	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4278	3925	969	165	33	215	243	1092	73	23	19	247	303	470	773	223	285	26	6	335	113	+69	+1	-36	-39	+68	6.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	147	25	5	33	37	166	11	3	3	247	303	471	774	225	284	26	6	335	113	+14	+0	-7	-8	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Wes Covington'56-'66 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,291 PA	5.0	3,291	131	7	273*	335*	482*	-35	-39	11.9	11.9
/162	664	26	1	-7.1	-7.8	2.4	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	4.8	3,179	169	10	252	305	485	-34	-33	12.2	11.7
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-6.9	2.6	pk7: 11
#2Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#3Mike Marshall'81-'91 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,908 PA	5.9	3,908	148	26	268*	321*	481*	-48	-39	9.3	9.4
/162	664	25	4	-8.2	-6.6	1.6	pk7: 9
#4Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Jay Gibbonslast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	127	2	260	315	453	-30	-30	7.7	8.1
/162	664	27	0	-6.3	-6.3	1.6	pk7: 9
#6Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	3.1	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kerry Carpenter (OGILVIE)	29	50	60	50	40	252/310/496	244	289	14	1	26%	6%	124	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Álvarez 2016 · MLB	29	43→48	62→65	47→45	46	239/302/458	219	275	32	6	27%	8%	112	+2.2	231/288/431	200	275	28	3	27%	7%	100	+1.3	221/275/409	189	263	27	1	27%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	47→57	59→65	52→45	45	252/299/469	216	272	27	5	20%	6%	113	+2.3	248/301/414	166	287	20	8	21%	7%	100	+1.3	264/315/368	104	318	12	9	20%	6%	93	+0.3
✕Jared Walsh 2022 · MLB	29	50→53	62→60	45→30	45	266/326/497	231	319	30	3	26%	7%	129	+3.4	214/278/378	164	292	21	4	33%	8%	84	+0.1	180/250/318	138	256	18	2	36%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Rick Ankiel 2009 · MLB	30	44→48	62→65	45→50	45	246/301/474	227	271	32	5	24%	7%	115	+2.4	236/292/406	170	290	20	8	25%	7%	95	+1.0	227/284/376	148	298	16	9	28%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Colby Rasmus 2016 · MLB	29	45→54	61→65	47→50	45	240/306/461	222	308	29	4	32%	9%	114	+2.3	224/290/414	190	290	26	6	31%	8%	97	+1.1	207/273/379	172	263	25	4	31%	8%	83	+0.0
●Joc Pederson 2021 · MLB	29	42→52	65	43→55	51	241/323/492	251	254	34	4	22%	9%	127	+3.3	248/328/459	211	286	27	4	23%	9%	121	+2.9	259/358/487	228	294	30	5	22%	11%	139	+3.0
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→56	61→65	43→40	44	257/304/478	221	292	29	3	24%	6%	117	+2.6	243/296/475	232	282	34	3	27%	6%	114	+2.3	209/258/400	191	252	29	0	31%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Eddie Rosario 2021 · MLB	29	50→55	60	47→50	46	269/304/477	209	274	30	7	16%	5%	117	+2.6	243/290/414	171	272	21	9	19%	6%	97	+1.1	239/287/405	166	275	20	8	21%	6%	93	+0.6
●Brandon Moss 2013 · MLB	29	44→53	61→65	43→45	44	242/303/465	223	288	30	7	28%	7%	114	+2.3	246/322/482	236	295	32	4	27%	9%	124	+3.1	238/320/463	226	285	30	2	27%	9%	120	+2.5
✕Micah Hoffpauir 2009 · MLB	29	50→48	59→60	47→40	44	264/305/480	216	289	26	5	20%	5%	118	+2.6	235/287/421	186	260	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	215/274/390	174	234	21	2	19%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	47→56	60→65	43→40	43	253/304/470	216	305	29	3	27%	7%	115	+2.4	239/299/414	175	314	22	6	30%	8%	100	+1.3	213/278/340	128	288	15	3	30%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	49→53	60	47→45	43	260/317/478	218	291	27	6	22%	6%	122	+2.9	233/289/407	174	268	20	3	21%	5%	95	+1.0	218/273/378	160	242	20	0	20%	5%	80	-0.1
●Brandon Lowe 2023 · MLB	29	44→51	62→70	50→45	52	243/328/474	231	280	30	6	25%	10%	124	+3.1	239/315/453	214	286	29	7	27%	9%	115	+2.4	249/314/478	228	298	33	4	28%	8%	121	+2.6
★Brent Rooker 2024 · MLB	29	42→52	63→70	47→45	44	231/312/462	231	299	32	6	33%	9%	116	+2.5	262/333/502	240	317	33	8	27%	9%	132	+3.7	262/333/500	238	309	33	8	26%	9%	133	+3.2
●Corey Dickerson 2018 · MLB	29	51→60	58→65	41→50	41	265/303/476	211	311	26	3	24%	5%	116	+2.5	278/313/469	191	318	20	6	19%	5%	118	+2.6	284/317/468	185	319	18	6	17%	4%	120	+1.6
●Mike Moustakas 2019 · MLB	30	48→56	62→65	45	48	259/310/483	223	262	31	3	16%	6%	120	+2.8	247/315/467	220	261	28	4	18%	8%	118	+2.7	238/313/463	225	249	29	2	19%	9%	117	+1.4
●Jason Kubel 2010 · MLB	28	54→56	58→60	45→40	52	280/340/490	210	306	25	3	18%	8%	132	+3.6	260/323/452	192	300	24	2	21%	8%	118	+2.6	249/316/442	192	290	24	1	23%	8%	113	+2.0
✕Alex Dickerson 2021 · MLB	31	53→56	59→60	47→45	49	275/340/491	216	307	26	4	20%	8%	132	+3.7	230/292/403	173	273	21	4	24%	7%	95	+0.9	209/270/367	159	249	20	1	25%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Miguel Sanó 2022 · MLB	29	41→51	66→70	43→45	47	229/311/483	253	304	35	3	36%	10%	120	+2.8	219/301/405	186	306	24	6	34%	10%	99	+1.2	177/267/299	122	261	17	3	37%	9%	61	-0.3
●Geoff Jenkins 2003 · MLB	29	50→57	59→65	46→45	45	262/325/479	217	308	27	7	24%	7%	124	+3.1	271/335/486	215	316	26	3	22%	7%	130	+3.5	275/341/493	217	321	26	1	22%	7%	134	+3.9

Kerry Carpenter

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps