Matt Hogan — OGILVIE

Matt HoganOF Winston-Salem Dash

Age 27 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .292 / .335

PA1

HR0

K%31

BB%8

BABIP290

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	185	156	27	9	1	1	23	71	4	12	3	173	293	263	556	90	306	38	12	263	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	110	23	2	1	6	25	43	2	8	1	209	365	409	774	200	266	31	18	345	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	55	41	7	1	0	1	7	14	5	3	0	171	358	268	627	98	231	25	13	299	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	108	91	17	5	3	0	14	38	2	1	0	187	308	308	616	121	315	35	13	284	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	34	25	9	1	1	0	8	11	1	5	3	360	529	480	1.009	120	643	32	24	457	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	185	165	23	7	1	1	15	88	4	12	3	139	228	212	440	73	278	48	8	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	117	18	1	1	5	18	59	2	8	1	154	277	308	585	154	224	42	13	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	55	43	7	1	0	1	5	17	5	3	0	163	321	256	577	93	221	31	9	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	108	96	12	3	2	0	9	52	2	1	0	125	215	198	413	73	252	48	8	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	34	28	7	1	1	0	5	16	1	5	3	250	382	357	739	107	496	47	15	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	325	283	41	9	1	6	32	148	6	20	4	145	246	247	493	102	263	46	10	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	325	266	50	11	2	7	48	114	6	20	4	188	324	323	647	135	289	35	15	298	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	197	168	26	5	3	1	18	85	8	9	3	155	268	238	506	83	301	43	9	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	197	157	33	7	4	1	29	63	8	9	3	210	361	325	686	115	340	32	15	318	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	325	284	41	9	1	6	32	148	6	20	4	144	246	246	493	102	255	46	10	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	197	169	26	5	3	1	18	85	8	9	3	154	268	237	505	83	285	43	9	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	325	284	41	9	1	6	32	148	6	20	4	144	246	246	493	102	255	46	10	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	197	169	26	5	3	1	18	85	8	9	3	154	268	237	505	83	285	43	9	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	247	219	45	9	1	5	21	76	5	6	1	208	291	332	623	124	289	31	9	283	77	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	209	292	335	626	126	290	0	0	284	77	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	26%	218	194	40	8	1	4	18	66	4	4	1	208	290	331	622	123	288	30	8	282	77	-6	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	26%	57	51	10	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	209	291	334	625	125	289	30	9	283	77	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	57	51	10	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	196	281	294	575	98	273	30	9	283	56	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	114	23	0	11	57	194	11	11	0	196	280	292	572	96	273	30	9	283	56	-18	+2	-2	-4	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	908	794	137	28	6	14	82	351	21	37	9	173	268	276	543	103	282	39	9	251	56	-10	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	98	20	4	10	59	251	15	26	6	173	268	275	543	102	282	39	9	251	56	-18	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Hogan (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	206/288/329	123	289	3	4	31%	8%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grant Witherspoon 2024 · AAA	27	43→46	48→50	49→50	42	217/279/359	142	296	16	14	32%	7%	79	-0.2	201/268/320	119	300	13	11	35%	8%	66	-1.1	125/198/210	85	192	11	6	39%	8%	14	-1.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA	27	40→38	48→60	52→50	45	207/276/357	150	272	15	12	29%	8%	78	-0.3	218/278/402	184	292	22	15	32%	7%	89	+0.5	204/268/394	190	271	24	17	33%	7%	82	+0.0
✕John Rave 2024 · AAA	26	43→47	45→50	49→55	45	214/282/337	123	301	14	13	32%	9%	76	-0.4	221/290/365	144	288	15	19	27%	9%	84	+0.2	222/295/375	153	278	16	24	25%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Deik Scram 2011 · AAA	27	41→51	46→50	53→50	44	205/274/341	136	283	12	13	31%	8%	74	-0.6	213/292/343	130	305	11	10	31%	9%	80	-0.1	208/300/342	134	297	10	4	31%	11%	82	-0.0
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA	27	39	48→50	50→55	38	199/265/343	144	291	15	15	36%	6%	72	-0.7	200/262/324	124	290	14	24	34%	6%	65	-1.2	188/253/294	106	272	12	30	34%	6%	52	-1.5
✕Anthony Norman 2011 · AA	26	42→41	46→50	54→55	48	211/290/342	131	264	13	14	24%	8%	80	-0.1	212/271/313	101	297	6	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	229/270/343	114	336	0	12	30%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	43→40	49→55	51→45	43	216/278/377	160	284	15	9	29%	7%	83	+0.1	214/283/352	138	270	12	8	24%	7%	80	-0.2	208/290/352	144	247	13	3	21%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Cal Towey 2017 · AAA	27	44→48	42→45	48→50	44	209/288/317	108	316	9	13	34%	9%	74	-0.6	204/289/310	106	323	8	8	36%	9%	72	-0.7	174/274/265	91	290	6	3	38%	10%	55	-1.2
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	45	45	48→45	40	224/274/343	119	305	12	10	30%	6%	74	-0.6	232/282/372	140	335	15	10	34%	6%	84	+0.1	228/273/371	144	333	16	6	35%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Ronnie Dawson 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	43→45	47→55	44	212/282/325	113	288	10	16	29%	8%	73	-0.6	220/285/324	104	308	9	14	30%	7%	74	-0.6	207/275/298	90	300	8	13	31%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Micah Pries 2024 · AAA	26	44→45	48→50	50	42	218/284/368	150	287	14	11	28%	6%	84	+0.1	198/260/320	122	264	13	9	29%	6%	63	-1.3	160/219/258	98	212	12	8	30%	6%	31	-1.2
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA	27	43	48→50	49→50	40	215/283/359	144	309	15	12	34%	7%	82	-0.0	208/283/352	144	321	16	15	38%	7%	80	-0.2	194/272/335	141	307	16	17	39%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	45→44	42→45	52→50	42	220/270/327	107	284	8	13	25%	6%	68	-1.0	225/271/360	135	292	15	18	27%	5%	76	-0.4	220/264/362	141	281	16	22	27%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Joe McCarthy 2021 · AAA	27	39→49	47→45	49→50	45	195/282/329	134	294	14	7	36%	9%	74	-0.5	243/307/404	161	301	18	9	25%	7%	101	+1.4	253/317/429	176	301	20	6	22%	7%	107	+1.0
✕Carlos Moncrief 2016 · AAA	27	46→52	45→50	50	46	229/287/356	127	290	13	11	25%	7%	81	-0.1	224/284/335	111	300	10	11	27%	7%	76	-0.4	224/282/324	101	305	8	11	27%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	41→40	46→50	53→55	45	203/286/334	131	286	13	16	32%	8%	77	-0.3	201/278/310	109	271	10	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	161/249/251	90	216	7	20	27%	8%	42	-1.3
✕Shayne Fontana 2023 · AAA	26	42	44→45	45→55	45	203/289/316	113	301	12	8	34%	9%	74	-0.6	223/300/322	99	294	9	18	26%	8%	79	-0.2	225/303/312	87	288	7	25	23%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Alex Glenn 2017 · AA	26	43→42	47→55	50	40	218/259/357	139	276	13	8	26%	5%	71	-0.8	195/241/296	101	288	8	7	34%	5%	50	-2.3	134/177/209	75	215	5	4	39%	5%	3	-2.1
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	41	45→50	48→50	46	202/290/321	119	285	13	9	32%	9%	76	-0.4	213/301/356	143	297	17	5	32%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/369	162	278	20	1	31%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Stephen Scott 2023 · AA	26	41→44	48→50	49→50	51	210/289/351	141	257	15	8	24%	10%	82	-0.0	211/281/355	144	266	16	10	26%	8%	80	-0.2	210/281/365	155	259	18	10	26%	8%	79	-0.1