Matt HoganOF
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 26
L/R
5'11" / 200 lbs
A+
BB +6%HR -6%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
wRC+†53
AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .261 / .288
PA168
HR3
K%40
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
39→39
SPD
56→56
EYE
53→53
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-8M | $-29M | -$22M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA | 2 teams | 325 | 284 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 156 | 6 | 20 | 4 | .141 | .240 | .250 | .490 | .109 | .264 | 48 | 10 | .226 | 31 | -25 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | 3 teams | 197 | 168 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 85 | 8 | 9 | 3 | .155 | .268 | .238 | .506 | .083 | .301 | 43 | 9 | .232 | 36 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 168 | 149 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .174 | .259 | .282 | .541 | .107 | .285 | 40 | 8 | .254 | 53 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 10% | CWS | 220 | 195 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 85 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .185 | .271 | .308 | .578 | .123 | .286 | 39 | 9 | .261 | 58 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 20% | CWS | 282 | 250 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 106 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .184 | .271 | .300 | .571 | .116 | .287 | 38 | 9 | .265 | 61 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 33% | CWS | 314 | 277 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 116 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .184 | .273 | .303 | .577 | .119 | .286 | 37 | 9 | .266 | 62 | -14 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 43% | CWS | 336 | 297 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 125 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .185 | .273 | .300 | .573 | .114 | .285 | 37 | 9 | .264 | 60 | -15 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 57% | CWS | 333 | 295 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 6 | 6 | 1 | .183 | .270 | .298 | .568 | .115 | .283 | 38 | 9 | .261 | 58 | -16 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 75% | CWS | 322 | 286 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 122 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .175 | .260 | .280 | .540 | .105 | .281 | 38 | 9 | .256 | 54 | -17 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +9 | -1.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 92% | CWS | 297 | 264 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 115 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .174 | .261 | .284 | .545 | .110 | .279 | 39 | 9 | .251 | 50 | -17 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +8 | -1.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 257 | 229 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 102 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .170 | .255 | .275 | .530 | .105 | .277 | 40 | 9 | .244 | 45 | -16 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +7 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3051 | 2694 | 469 | 92 | 13 | 60 | 270 | 1205 | 58 | 78 | 13 | .174 | .264 | .285 | .548 | .111 | .283 | 39 | 9 | .253 | 52 | -165 | +10 | -20 | -18 | +86 | -10.9 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 574 | 101 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 257 | 12 | 17 | 3 | .176 | .266 | .289 | .555 | .113 | .286 | 40 | 9 | .253 | 52 | -35 | +2 | -4 | -4 | +18 | -2.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 185 | 156 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 12 | 3 | .173 | .293 | .263 | .556 | .090 | .306 | 38 | 12 | .263 | 60 | -8 | +1 | — | — | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 140 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 43 | 2 | 8 | 1 | .209 | .365 | .409 | .774 | .200 | .266 | 31 | 18 | .345 | 122 | +3 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 55 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .171 | .358 | .268 | .627 | .098 | .231 | 25 | 13 | .299 | 87 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 108 | 91 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .187 | .308 | .308 | .616 | .121 | .315 | 35 | 13 | .284 | 75 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 34 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 3 | .360 | .529 | .480 | 1.009 | .120 | .643 | 32 | 24 | .457 | 208 | +4 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Matt Hogan (OGILVIE) | 26 | 20 | 39 | 56 | 53 | .174/.261/.288 | .115 | .285 | 3 | 4 | 40% | 9% | 53 | -0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA |
26 | 36→29 | 40→45 | 48→55 | 36 | .179/.243/.270 | .091 | .285 | 8 | 11 | 38% | 6% | 39 | -2.5 | .186/.268/.305 | .119 | .285 | 12 | 20 | 36% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .181/.273/.314 | .132 | .266 | 14 | 28 | 35% | 10% | 61 | -0.6 |
|
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA |
26 | 36→38 | 44→50 | 47→55 | 38 | .183/.247/.298 | .115 | .269 | 11 | 13 | 35% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .201/.262/.346 | .145 | .292 | 17 | 19 | 36% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .199/.260/.339 | .140 | .286 | 17 | 24 | 35% | 6% | 61 | -0.7 |
|
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA |
26 | 39 | 43→45 | 48→50 | 44 | .190/.284/.298 | .108 | .293 | 11 | 10 | 36% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .190/.283/.309 | .119 | .284 | 13 | 11 | 35% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .126/.240/.244 | .118 | .172 | 15 | 9 | 35% | 12% | 32 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA |
27 | 38→41 | 43→45 | 50 | 41 | .181/.265/.280 | .099 | .307 | 11 | 12 | 42% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .204/.296/.339 | .135 | .334 | 15 | 13 | 39% | 10% | 80 | +0.4 | .217/.319/.382 | .165 | .335 | 19 | 13 | 37% | 12% | 95 | +0.9 |
|
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA |
26 | 38→42 | 43→45 | 47→50 | 39 | .187/.250/.294 | .107 | .292 | 11 | 6 | 38% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .201/.285/.328 | .127 | .324 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .191/.281/.316 | .125 | .300 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 10% | 64 | -0.5 |
|
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA |
26 | 37→43 | 44→45 | 51→50 | 42 | .188/.261/.308 | .120 | .276 | 12 | 10 | 35% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .189/.254/.290 | .101 | .308 | 7 | 9 | 38% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .160/.216/.252 | .092 | .300 | 0 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 17 | -0.7 |
|
✕Greg Deichmann 2021 · AA |
26 | 36→46 | 46→50 | 51→50 | 37 | .185/.244/.308 | .124 | .294 | 14 | 15 | 40% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .209/.272/.330 | .121 | .313 | 12 | 14 | 34% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .199/.262/.329 | .130 | .294 | 14 | 15 | 35% | 7% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Corey Ray 2021 · AAA |
26 | 38→36 | 48→50 | 54→55 | 34 | .191/.247/.337 | .146 | .315 | 16 | 19 | 43% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .204/.247/.353 | .149 | .310 | 18 | 12 | 38% | 5% | 62 | -0.9 | .186/.225/.350 | .164 | .267 | 20 | 13 | 38% | 4% | 49 | -0.7 |
|
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA |
27 | 34→30 | 47→50 | 50 | 44 | .181/.258/.318 | .137 | .259 | 15 | 13 | 35% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .189/.267/.321 | .132 | .273 | 16 | 12 | 35% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .160/.249/.296 | .136 | .218 | 19 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |
|
✕Neil Medchill 2013 · AA |
26 | 38→27 | 48→50 | 46→45 | 35 | .190/.246/.323 | .134 | .309 | 16 | 7 | 42% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .212/.267/.327 | .115 | .349 | 12 | 7 | 40% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .206/.263/.291 | .085 | .344 | 10 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 50 | -0.7 |
|
✕Brenden Webb 2015 · A |
25 | 36→37 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 39 | .180/.250/.300 | .120 | .295 | 12 | 9 | 41% | 8% | 50 | -1.8 | .191/.245/.294 | .103 | .301 | 10 | 12 | 38% | 6% | 45 | -2.1 | .184/.232/.281 | .097 | .278 | 11 | 16 | 37% | 5% | 33 | -1.8 |
|
✕Ross Adolph 2022 · AA |
25 | 41→33 | 44→45 | 44→50 | 39 | .192/.273/.308 | .117 | .318 | 12 | 8 | 40% | 8% | 62 | -0.9 | .208/.312/.331 | .123 | .364 | 12 | 11 | 42% | 10% | 85 | +0.7 | .191/.333/.297 | .106 | .358 | 9 | 16 | 41% | 13% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Ronnie Dawson 2021 · AAA |
26 | 37→47 | 47→45 | 48→55 | 36 | .190/.255/.321 | .132 | .294 | 15 | 18 | 39% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .210/.278/.319 | .109 | .295 | 10 | 15 | 30% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .210/.279/.311 | .102 | .289 | 9 | 16 | 29% | 7% | 61 | -0.7 |
|
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA |
25 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→50 | 38 | .186/.263/.294 | .108 | .300 | 13 | 8 | 40% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .205/.282/.312 | .107 | .343 | 12 | 13 | 40% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .202/.287/.300 | .098 | .353 | 11 | 19 | 41% | 9% | 62 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jared Mitchell 2015 · AAA |
26 | 41→44 | 47→50 | 51→55 | 41 | .197/.276/.331 | .134 | .321 | 14 | 16 | 40% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.264/.304 | .108 | .333 | 11 | 17 | 41% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .158/.225/.235 | .077 | .290 | 6 | 20 | 45% | 8% | 18 | -2.3 |
|
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA |
26 | 38 | 43→45 | 51→50 | 40 | .188/.263/.297 | .108 | .296 | 12 | 13 | 38% | 8% | 55 | -1.4 | .201/.277/.307 | .106 | .299 | 10 | 14 | 34% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .196/.298/.302 | .106 | .259 | 11 | 24 | 26% | 10% | 67 | -0.1 |
|
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA |
26 | 38→40 | 45 | 54→50 | 42 | .196/.270/.318 | .122 | .273 | 13 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .193/.258/.302 | .109 | .284 | 11 | 12 | 34% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .153/.220/.254 | .100 | .233 | 9 | 9 | 36% | 7% | 22 | -1.3 |
|
✕Drew Vettleson 2017 · AA |
26 | 37→47 | 44→45 | 49→50 | 33 | .189/.226/.300 | .111 | .290 | 12 | 10 | 38% | 5% | 38 | -2.6 | .193/.233/.301 | .108 | .315 | 12 | 13 | 41% | 5% | 42 | -2.3 | .136/.157/.214 | .079 | .232 | 12 | 21 | 47% | 2% | -17 | -1.1 |
|
✕Art Charles 2017 · AA |
26 | 38 | 46→50 | 48→30 | 37 | .190/.248/.320 | .130 | .299 | 14 | 3 | 40% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .230/.294/.418 | .188 | .324 | 24 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 98 | +1.6 | .243/.312/.489 | .246 | .318 | 34 | 0 | 34% | 9% | 126 | +1.1 |
|
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA |
25 | 40→37 | 46→45 | 48→45 | 44 | .205/.275/.336 | .132 | .274 | 14 | 11 | 30% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .212/.284/.329 | .117 | .274 | 12 | 7 | 26% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .192/.282/.265 | .072 | .245 | 6 | 0 | 22% | 10% | 51 | -0.6 |