Garrett Brown prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Garrett Brown P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 218 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%19.6%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	45	11	9	0	0%	1.3	24.4%	20.0%	4.4%	0.0%	3.00	3.57	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	45	11	9	0	0%	1.3	24.4%	20.0%	4.4%	0.0%	3.00	3.57	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	45	11	9	0	0%	1.3	24.4%	20.0%	4.4%	0.0%	3.00	3.66	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	95	13	16	2	0%	1.3	8.1%	20.1%	-12.0%	1.7%	9.33	5.92	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	95	13	16	2	0%	1.3	8.1%	20.1%	-12.0%	1.7%	9.33	5.92	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	18	95	13	16	2	0%	1.3	13.7%	16.8%	-3.2%	2.1%	9.33	5.72	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	14.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.26	5.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	17	12	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	3.0%	5.19	5.20	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	3.0%	5.19	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	4	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	3.0%	5.19	4.82	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	110	28	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	3.0%	5.19	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		21	0	27	140	19	28	2	0%	1.3	13.4%	20.1%	-6.7%	1.2%	7.24	5.17	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	1024	137	206	12	0%	1.3	13.4%	20.1%	-6.7%	1.2%	7.24	5.17	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	19.6%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.20	20.0%	6.2%	20	-0.06	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	82
Philip Humber R 2009 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	18.0%	14.0%	2.0%	.450	4.14	17.6%	10.6%	287	-0.31	2.97	362	82
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	82
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	82
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	81
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	81
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	81
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	81
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	81