Gavin Dugas — OGILVIE

Gavin Dugas2B Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .248 / .253

PA76

HR1

K%35

BB%7

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	23	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	66	50	8	0	0	2	7	18	9	1	0	160	364	280	644	120	200	27	11	320	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	234	197	39	11	0	1	18	75	18	6	2	198	322	269	591	71	311	32	8	284	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	122	103	35	10	0	3	12	27	6	7	1	340	434	524	959	184	438	22	10	424	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	276	50	10	0	5	38	88	13	4	4	181	309	272	581	91	239	27	11	274	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	28	3	0	0	2	4	17	0	0	0	107	219	321	540	214	111	53	12	246	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	66	53	7	0	0	2	4	25	9	1	0	132	303	245	548	113	178	38	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	234	204	29	8	0	1	11	101	18	6	2	142	249	196	445	54	249	43	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	122	108	28	8	0	2	8	35	6	7	1	259	344	389	733	130	365	29	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	291	38	7	0	4	23	120	13	4	4	131	226	196	422	65	190	36	7	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	30	2	0	0	1	2	22	0	0	0	67	125	167	292	100	91	69	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	66	53	7	0	0	2	4	25	9	1	0	132	303	245	548	113	192	38	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	66	50	8	0	0	2	7	18	9	1	0	160	364	280	644	120	200	27	11	320	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	356	313	57	16	0	3	18	136	24	13	3	182	279	262	541	80	309	38	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	356	300	74	21	0	4	30	102	24	13	3	247	361	357	717	110	359	29	8	332	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	291	38	7	0	4	23	120	13	4	4	131	226	196	422	65	198	36	7	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	276	50	10	0	5	38	88	13	4	4	181	309	272	581	91	239	27	11	274	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	30	2	0	0	1	2	22	0	0	0	67	125	167	292	100	143	69	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	28	3	0	0	2	4	17	0	0	0	107	219	321	540	214	111	53	12	246	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	66	53	7	0	0	2	4	25	9	1	0	132	303	245	548	113	178	38	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	356	311	57	16	0	3	18	136	24	13	3	183	279	264	543	80	289	38	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	293	38	7	0	4	23	120	13	4	4	130	226	195	421	65	190	36	7	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	30	2	0	0	1	2	22	0	0	0	67	125	167	292	100	91	69	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	356	311	57	16	0	3	18	136	24	13	3	183	279	264	543	80	289	38	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	332	293	38	7	0	4	23	120	13	4	4	130	226	195	421	65	190	36	7	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	32	30	2	0	0	1	2	22	0	0	0	67	125	167	292	100	91	69	6	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	200	179	31	7	0	3	13	70	6	3	1	170	250	255	505	85	257	35	6	235	45	-13	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	26%	116	104	18	4	0	2	8	40	3	2	1	172	252	258	510	86	258	34	7	237	47	-7	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26%	30	27	4	1	0	0	2	10	1	0	0	172	252	258	510	86	259	33	7	237	47	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	30	27	4	1	0	0	2	10	1	0	0	148	233	185	419	37	235	33	7	237	35	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	87	22	0	0	43	217	22	0	0	149	234	186	420	38	236	33	7	237	35	-41	+0	-4	+2	+14	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		—	978	860	134	30	0	13	60	370	51	21	8	156	252	236	488	80	250	38	6	220	35	-12	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	89	20	0	9	40	246	34	14	5	156	253	238	490	82	248	38	6	220	35	-42	+1	-2	+2	+14	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Dugas (OGILVIE)	27	25	30	45	50	168/248/253	84	257	1	1	35%	7%	45	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stuart Levy 2019 · A	26	35	38→30	44→40	38	173/241/247	74	265	6	5	35%	6%	40	-3.0	190/250/278	88	303	8	7	37%	6%	50	-2.3	142/198/221	78	234	8	3	41%	6%	14	-1.0
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	32	42→40	49→45	42	169/233/265	96	237	10	5	32%	7%	40	-3.0	193/263/284	91	262	8	8	27%	8%	56	-1.9	178/258/254	76	233	6	7	25%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37	38→40	43→45	43	178/254/252	74	250	5	8	29%	7%	46	-2.6	193/256/269	76	288	5	7	32%	7%	50	-2.3	166/232/216	50	256	3	3	33%	6%	27	-2.1
✕Chandler Seagle 2023 · AA	27	40	39→40	44→45	38	196/252/279	83	283	6	5	32%	6%	51	-2.3	181/227/257	76	292	6	7	38%	4%	36	-3.4	149/188/204	56	252	3	4	41%	3%	6	-1.6
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	41→37	40	42→50	42	200/257/286	86	276	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	192/254/289	97	261	11	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	161/230/243	82	217	11	11	30%	6%	33	-1.3
✕Lyle Lin 2024 · AA	27	41	36→30	44→40	41	192/260/254	62	277	4	4	30%	6%	48	-2.5	217/284/293	76	277	5	7	22%	6%	66	-1.1	162/233/177	16	197	0	4	16%	6%	20	-0.8
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	44	177/240/259	82	241	5	3	28%	7%	42	-2.9	200/255/310	110	282	11	4	32%	7%	59	-1.6	168/269/293	125	244	17	8	36%	10%	60	-0.5
✕Jason Matthews 2024 · AAA	27	35→31	38→30	49→45	35	164/238/235	71	298	6	10	44%	7%	36	-3.3	176/250/248	72	273	6	10	35%	7%	44	-2.8	166/245/231	65	251	6	9	34%	8%	35	-1.7
✕Jake Anchia 2024 · AA	27	35	42→45	49→40	38	182/234/284	102	254	10	4	32%	5%	45	-2.7	191/235/307	116	276	13	6	35%	4%	51	-2.3	168/200/294	126	225	17	5	34%	2%	32	-1.7
✕Travis Tartamella 2015 · AAA	27	36	36→30	43→30	37	178/220/237	59	253	5	3	31%	5%	28	-3.9	193/235/269	76	290	6	7	34%	5%	41	-3.0	152/175/183	31	253	0	0	39%	3%	-2	-1.3
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	43→40	48→30	40	194/251/303	109	259	11	5	29%	6%	56	-1.9	228/293/329	101	322	9	8	29%	8%	77	-0.3	243/313/304	61	352	3	0	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Tommy Whiteman 2006 · AAA	27	42→39	39→30	41→40	42	203/261/282	79	288	7	6	31%	7%	55	-2.0	195/243/284	89	300	9	8	36%	6%	48	-2.5	128/155/180	53	216	5	3	43%	3%	-12	-1.8
✕Micah Gibbs 2015 · AA	27	39	39→30	47→45	44	190/260/273	82	274	6	8	31%	8%	53	-2.1	212/267/317	105	287	9	8	28%	7%	65	-1.2	194/244/307	113	259	9	0	28%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Ali Solis 2015 · AAA	27	40	39→45	45→30	33	199/228/283	84	274	7	5	30%	3%	41	-3.0	178/210/253	75	248	6	4	30%	3%	28	-3.9	187/222/301	114	244	14	2	30%	4%	42	-1.1
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	39→36	38→40	44→50	39	179/267/255	76	302	6	11	39%	7%	53	-2.1	178/274/281	103	290	9	15	38%	8%	61	-1.5	153/258/253	100	252	9	18	39%	9%	48	-1.3
✕Tim Roberson 2015 · A	26	39→35	41→40	46→30	36	198/236/294	97	278	9	2	32%	5%	47	-2.5	221/257/312	91	310	7	3	30%	4%	59	-1.6	241/275/329	88	330	6	1	28%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Scott Burcham 2021 · AA	28	41	39→30	46→50	41	198/253/281	83	282	7	11	31%	6%	51	-2.2	205/249/297	92	329	7	8	38%	5%	53	-2.1	174/198/228	55	305	2	0	43%	3%	15	-1.1
✕Nick Clarno 2024 · A	26	33	39→30	44→45	42	163/248/246	83	267	8	7	39%	9%	43	-2.8	186/257/279	93	288	9	10	36%	8%	53	-2.1	140/212/204	63	208	9	12	36%	7%	16	-1.0
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA	27	40	42→45	44→45	39	197/254/295	98	296	10	6	35%	7%	55	-1.9	197/254/293	96	325	9	8	39%	6%	55	-2.0	154/213/234	81	245	10	4	40%	6%	24	-0.9