Patrick Winkel

C New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	25	AAAMIN	180	.217/.278/.386	7	0	37	—	.182/.228/.288
2026	26	AATOR	124	.241/.309/.384	3	0	49	—	.191/.244/.287
2027PROJ2% MLB	27	MLBTOR	3	.216/.263/.333	0	0	66	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBTOR	70	.216/.264/.332	1	1	66	-0.0
2029PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTOR	111	.215/.264/.330	2	0	65	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%55

Z-Con%49

ISO46

BB%35

wRC+34

wOBA33

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsErik Ostberg (age 27) · Jesus Flores (age 27) · Colt Morton (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .263 / .333

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%5

BABIP299

ISO114

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	112	27	7	0	3	11	39	0	0	1	241	309	384	693	143	338	31	9	309	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	14	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	189	286	284	569	95	298	37	11	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	203	41	7	0	5	17	79	0	1	0	202	264	310	574	108	305	36	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	316	73	15	1	7	33	103	3	3	1	231	310	351	661	120	308	29	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	281	54	13	0	5	14	108	1	0	0	192	233	292	525	100	292	36	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	170	31	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	182	228	288	516	106	282	40	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	115	22	5	0	2	8	48	0	0	1	191	244	287	531	96	303	39	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	14	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	189	286	284	569	95	310	37	11	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	203	41	7	0	5	17	79	0	1	0	202	264	310	574	108	300	36	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	316	73	15	1	7	33	103	3	3	1	231	310	351	661	120	314	29	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	281	54	13	0	5	14	108	1	0	0	192	233	292	525	100	290	36	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	170	31	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	182	228	288	516	106	287	40	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	115	22	5	0	2	8	48	0	0	1	191	244	287	531	96	303	39	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	112	27	7	0	3	11	39	0	0	1	241	309	384	693	143	338	31	9	309	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	14	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	189	286	284	569	95	298	37	11	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	202	41	7	0	5	17	79	0	1	0	203	264	312	576	109	305	36	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	317	73	15	1	7	33	103	3	3	1	230	310	350	660	120	308	29	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	280	54	13	0	5	14	108	1	0	0	193	233	293	526	100	292	36	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	168	31	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	185	228	292	519	107	282	40	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	115	22	5	0	2	8	48	0	0	1	191	244	287	531	96	303	39	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	280	54	13	0	5	14	108	1	0	0	193	233	293	526	100	292	36	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	168	31	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	185	228	292	519	107	282	40	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	124	115	22	5	0	2	8	48	0	0	1	191	244	287	531	96	303	39	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	200	186	41	9	1	4	11	63	1	2	1	216	263	332	594	116	298	32	6	265	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	216	263	333	596	116	299	33	0	266	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	27%	259	242	52	11	1	5	14	80	1	2	1	215	263	331	594	116	297	31	5	266	66	-11	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	37%	299	278	59	12	1	6	17	92	2	1	1	214	263	329	592	114	295	31	6	265	65	-12	-0	-1	+5	+6	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	43%	325	301	64	13	1	6	19	100	2	0	1	213	262	325	587	112	293	31	6	263	64	-14	-0	-2	+6	+7	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	27%	70	66	14	3	0	1	4	22	0	1	0	216	264	332	596	116	298	31	6	266	66	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	37%	111	103	22	5	0	2	6	34	1	0	0	215	264	330	593	114	296	31	5	265	65	-5	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	43%	140	130	28	6	0	3	8	43	1	0	0	214	263	326	589	112	294	31	6	264	64	-6	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	321	299	64	14	0	6	18	99	2	1	0	214	263	321	584	107	296	31	6	265	61	-13	+0	-2	+6	+7	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	129	28	0	12	36	200	4	2	0	213	262	319	581	106	295	31	6	265	61	-27	+0	-3	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2315	2138	444	93	5	44	149	766	12	9	6	208	263	318	581	110	299	33	6	258	61	-44	-1	-4	+19	+23	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	124	26	1	12	42	215	3	3	2	207	262	313	575	107	298	33	6	258	61	-27	-0	-3	+12	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#4Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	324	6	1	215	261	329	+6	+4	0.1	0.1
/162	664	13	2	+11.9	+8.2	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Winkel (OGILVIE)	27	35	55	45	35	214/260/329	115	298	3	2	31%	5%	66	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Erik Ostberg 2023 · AA	27	39	49→50	46→45	41	202/264/342	140	286	17	6	35%	8%	70	-0.8	205/260/335	130	284	14	9	31%	7%	67	-1.1	168/213/304	136	218	14	6	30%	5%	40	-0.8
✕Jesus Flores 2012 · MLB	27	42→39	45→50	47→30	36	212/244/336	124	280	13	4	29%	4%	60	-1.6	194/226/295	101	246	10	4	25%	4%	44	-2.8	177/207/262	85	221	9	1	25%	3%	27	-1.6
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	37	46→50	47→30	41	192/258/319	128	270	14	4	33%	7%	63	-1.4	202/257/334	132	277	15	7	31%	6%	65	-1.2	161/211/333	171	188	22	0	29%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→36	47→50	42→40	42	214/275/350	136	287	14	5	30%	7%	76	-0.4	189/242/343	154	266	20	4	36%	5%	63	-1.4	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→38	47→50	47→45	42	202/269/336	134	296	14	6	36%	8%	71	-0.8	192/258/329	137	289	16	6	37%	8%	65	-1.2	172/239/299	127	255	16	5	38%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Steven Lerud 2012 · AAA	27	39→42	41→45	43→40	40	194/257/291	97	276	9	3	32%	6%	56	-1.9	203/278/294	91	299	8	4	32%	8%	65	-1.2	199/289/281	82	285	7	2	29%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Alvin Colina 2009 · AAA	27	40	45	46→40	37	203/250/323	119	272	13	5	30%	5%	60	-1.6	214/266/341	127	284	15	6	29%	5%	71	-0.8	203/256/324	121	262	15	2	28%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Bret Boswell 2022 · AA	27	40→42	45	43→45	37	203/255/324	121	295	13	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	198/268/320	122	299	12	9	35%	8%	67	-1.1	174/249/292	118	260	12	7	36%	9%	50	-1.1
✕Adam Calderone 2011 · AAA	27	40→41	47→50	45	39	206/251/349	143	262	14	9	28%	5%	66	-1.1	205/251/330	125	268	12	12	27%	5%	61	-1.5	162/194/257	95	204	5	16	23%	4%	20	-1.0
✕Bruce Caldwell 2019 · AAA	27	43→45	43→45	44→40	42	210/273/319	109	302	11	3	33%	8%	68	-1.0	202/258/312	110	288	11	6	32%	7%	61	-1.5	166/220/260	95	232	11	3	33%	6%	33	-2.1
✕Taylor Gushue 2022 · AAA	28	41	45	46→30	39	207/256/331	123	292	13	4	33%	6%	64	-1.3	205/280/336	131	290	15	6	32%	9%	75	-0.5	175/270/301	126	240	15	0	32%	11%	61	-0.7
✕Jason Delay 2022 · AAA	27	38	44→45	48→40	34	195/235/311	116	286	13	6	36%	4%	51	-2.2	218/272/302	84	294	5	5	26%	6%	63	-1.4	225/284/299	74	296	3	2	23%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Logan Moore 2018 · AAA	27	40	43→40	42→30	39	203/252/308	106	287	12	3	33%	6%	57	-1.8	196/262/292	96	277	10	6	31%	7%	57	-1.8	154/232/213	59	215	6	0	29%	8%	27	-1.8
✕Cody Roberts 2024 · AAA	28	41	43→45	43→40	40	206/263/314	108	284	11	4	30%	6%	63	-1.4	216/272/313	97	334	8	8	35%	7%	66	-1.1	217/275/296	79	364	5	7	39%	7%	60	-0.4
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	39	46→45	46→40	39	199/262/323	124	288	15	4	35%	7%	65	-1.2	209/289/320	111	287	12	5	29%	9%	75	-0.5	198/286/289	91	268	9	2	27%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA	28	37	47→50	45→40	40	196/256/328	132	271	16	5	33%	7%	64	-1.3	208/266/316	108	304	10	9	33%	7%	65	-1.2	176/235/254	78	266	6	4	34%	7%	37	-0.8
✕Chris Kroski 2009 · AA	27	43	42→45	46→40	42	212/270/323	111	275	9	5	26%	6%	68	-1.0	209/274/316	107	282	8	7	27%	8%	68	-1.0	169/241/276	107	228	8	0	28%	9%	45	-0.6
✕Logan Driscoll 2024 · AAA	26	44→46	44→45	46→40	39	217/273/332	115	299	12	6	31%	5%	71	-0.8	232/288/351	119	308	11	5	27%	6%	81	-0.1	235/296/355	120	309	10	2	26%	7%	82	-0.0
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	43	42→50	49→40	39	214/258/321	107	293	10	6	30%	5%	62	-1.4	198/250/294	96	289	8	7	32%	6%	53	-2.1	140/193/216	76	211	6	0	35%	5%	12	-1.3
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	185/253/290	105	260	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	194/264/295	101	308	9	6	37%	9%	59	-1.6	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2

Patrick Winkel

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps