Chase Costello — OGILVIE

Chase Costello P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%19.3%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	28	0	65	257	53	20	3	0%	2.3	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	1.4%	3.76	3.75	—
2023	23	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	28	0	65	257	53	20	3	0%	2.3	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	1.4%	3.76	3.75	—
2023	23	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	28	0	65	257	53	20	3	0%	2.3	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.2%	3.76	2.99	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.35	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.1%	3.35	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	48	202	63	18	3	0%	1.3	31.2%	8.9%	22.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.42	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	14.9%	-1.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	14.9%	-1.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.87	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	13	0	15	74	12	10	0	0%	1.2	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	0.0%	5.28	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	2.7%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	41	0	43	181	36	19	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.8%	4.67	4.68	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	15	0	16	68	13	7	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.8%	4.67	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	13	7	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.8%	4.67	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	87	25	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	2.8%	4.67	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		78	0	128	533	98	53	8	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.5%	3.79	3.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	0	200	831	153	82	12	0%	1.6	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.5%	3.79	3.61	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Costello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	19.3%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.68	19.7%	9.0%	43	+0.00	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	83
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	83
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	83
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	19.6%	10.7%	1.06	4.67
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58