Sean Burke

P Chicago White Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	23	22	91	4.07	4.08	32.2%	12.4%	0.9	K 27.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.54
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	25	147	4.53	4.77	22.6%	10.4%	0.2	K 22.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.63
2026	26	MLBCWS	32	27	172	3.34	3.47	25.8%	8.7%	3.0
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	28	28	169	4.12	4.29	24.7%	9.4%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCWS	27	27	160	4.30	4.41	24.6%	9.6%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCWS	26	26	153	4.46	4.57	24.0%	9.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.064First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$4M2031Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%70

xwOBA vs62

FB Velo54

Whiff%51

CompsJames McDonald (age 27) · Bud Norris (age 27) · Max Scherzer (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.12

FIP4.29

K%24.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP169

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 169 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

SL+2.4 (18%)

SI (14%)

CT (9%)

CU (20%)

CH-0.6 (2%)

FB-1.3 (51%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.064 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$20M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	23.9%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	2.65	3.49	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	34.2%	15.1%	19.2%	0.0%	2.65	2.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.8%	4.75	4.63	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	29.4%	10.3%	19.1%	3.2%	4.75	3.70	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	17.6%	14.6%	3.0%	5.2%	7.61	6.31	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	20.5%	16.3%	4.2%	5.4%	7.61	6.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	27.2%	11.2%	16.0%	4.2%	4.07	4.54	+0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	27.2%	11.2%	16.0%	4.2%	4.07	4.54	+0.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	32.2%	12.4%	19.8%	3.9%	4.07	4.08	+0.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	4.0%	4.53	4.77	+0.2
2026	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.6%	3.34	3.45	+3.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.6%	3.34	3.45	+3.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.7%	3.34	3.47	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	52	326	1388	340	132	44	81%	5.1	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.2%	3.59	3.98	+3.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	28	28	169	714	176	67	22	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.4%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.29	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	28	28	169	713	175	68	23	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.2%	4.27	4.38	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	161	681	163	67	23	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.3%	4.43	4.54	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	152	640	149	65	23	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	141	597	134	63	23	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.8%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	552	120	60	22	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	4.0%	5.07	5.23	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	27	27	160	676	166	65	22	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.3%	4.30	4.41	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	153	646	155	63	22	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.4%	4.46	4.57	+0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	144	608	141	62	22	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.1%	13.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.77	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	134	566	127	59	22	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.8%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	124	524	114	57	21	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	4.1%	5.11	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	171	1042	4412	1044	438	153	93%	5.7	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	3.5%	4.32	4.27	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	200	84	29	93%	5.7	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	3.5%	4.32	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		129	116	572	2464	596	265	87	90%	4.4	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.5%	4.28	4.35	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	862	208	93	30	90%	4.4	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.5%	4.28	4.35	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Burke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	24.7%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.55	23.9%	14.1%	482	+0.26	—	—	—
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	73
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	68
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	67
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	65
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	64
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	957	64
Lance Lynn R 2014 · 3.26 FIP	27	SP	3.26	20.9%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	4.02	20.9%	12.0%	362	+0.76	2.85	2,006	64
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	63
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	63
Joe Kelly R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	19.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.309	3.21	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.71	2.38	883	63
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	63
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	62
John Maine R 2008 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.262	4.64	17.3%	6.3%	121	+0.44	3.91	582	61
Jason Hammel R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	27	SP	3.45	18.3%	6.0%	2.1%	.324	4.13	16.5%	8.2%	428	+0.68	3.10	1,810	61
Kyle Gibson R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	27	SP	3.72	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.26	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.54	3.56	1,920	61
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	60
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	60
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	1,034	60
Brandon Morrow R 2011 · 3.49 FIP	27	SP	3.49	26.1%	8.8%	2.7%	.291	4.05	20.2%	11.7%	212	+0.56	2.67	922	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	156	23.8%	9.9%	1.31	4.28
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Bill Walker ('27-'36, 18 WAR*)	7.4	166	23.5%*	9.7%*	1.23*	3.73*
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93