Julio Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Julio Rodriguez P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	8	0	16	71	15	10	0	0%	2.0	14.4%	17.6%	-3.2%	0.0%	2.20	4.12	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	8	0	16	71	15	10	0	0%	2.0	21.1%	14.1%	7.0%	0.0%	2.20	3.10	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	9	0	12	53	13	6	0	0%	1.3	16.7%	14.2%	2.5%	0.0%	4.63	3.48	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	9	0	12	53	13	6	0	0%	1.3	24.5%	11.3%	13.2%	0.0%	4.63	2.41	—
2022	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	38	0	48	229	63	34	1	0%	1.3	20.4%	17.5%	2.8%	0.5%	4.34	3.89	—
2022	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	38	0	48	229	63	34	1	0%	1.3	27.5%	14.8%	12.7%	0.4%	4.34	2.87	—
2023	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	57	268	71	33	0	0%	1.5	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	0.0%	5.97	3.28	—
2023	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	57	268	71	33	0	0%	1.5	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	0.0%	5.97	3.28	—
2023	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	39	0	57	268	71	33	0	0%	1.5	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	0.0%	5.97	2.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	54	240	64	26	3	0%	1.4	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	1.1%	3.48	3.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	54	240	64	26	3	0%	1.4	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	1.1%	3.48	3.55	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	54	240	64	26	3	0%	1.4	26.7%	10.8%	15.8%	1.2%	3.48	2.90	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	32	147	47	16	2	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.3%	11.8%	1.5%	6.40	3.43	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	32	147	47	16	2	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.3%	11.8%	1.5%	6.40	3.43	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	32	147	47	16	2	0%	1.5	32.0%	10.9%	21.1%	1.4%	6.40	2.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	30	0	36	170	49	27	2	0%	1.2	24.2%	11.5%	12.6%	1.9%	5.55	3.58	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	30	0	36	170	49	27	2	0%	1.2	24.2%	11.5%	12.6%	1.9%	5.55	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	HOU	21	0	28	124	37	13	2	0%	1.3	29.8%	10.5%	19.4%	1.6%	5.20	2.79	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	HOU	9	0	8	46	12	14	0	0%	0.9	26.1%	30.4%	-4.3%	0.0%	6.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	46	0	48	204	45	25	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.59	4.61	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	45	0	47	198	44	24	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	2.8%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	45	189	42	23	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.78	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	17	0	18	76	17	9	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.59	4.61	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	27	0	28	118	26	14	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	2.8%	4.63	4.67	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	32	135	30	16	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	0	78	328	73	39	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.32	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	101	23	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		183	0	255	1178	245	167	9	0%	1.4	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	0.8%	4.83	3.58	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	923	192	131	7	0%	1.4	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	0.8%	4.83	3.58	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.2%	12.3%	2.6%	—	4.68	22.2%	10.2%	140	+0.08	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	89
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	88
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	88
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	85
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	83
Kyle Schepel R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	21.6%	11.6%	1.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	156	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	82
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	41	22.2%	12.1%	1.08	4.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64