Kelvin Bautista — OGILVIE

Kelvin Bautista P Tulsa Drillers

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 155 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140148vR 156

ERA6.49

FIP6.49

K%15.5%

BB%22.1%

K-BB%-6.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	18	0	27	122	25	17	0	0%	1.5	13.9%	17.4%	-3.5%	0.0%	5.00	4.13	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	18	0	27	122	25	17	0	0%	1.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	0.0%	5.00	3.14	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	14	0	29	118	46	13	1	0%	2.1	26.5%	13.8%	12.7%	1.2%	2.48	3.26	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	14	0	29	118	46	13	1	0%	2.1	39.0%	11.0%	28.0%	0.8%	2.48	1.72	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	19	0	25	101	32	12	0	0%	1.3	21.5%	14.9%	6.7%	0.0%	1.82	3.16	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	19	0	25	101	32	12	0	0%	1.3	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.82	1.96	—
2022	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	42	0	54	267	55	48	2	0%	1.3	15.2%	21.2%	-6.0%	0.8%	6.17	4.93	—
2022	23	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	42	0	54	267	55	48	2	0%	1.3	20.6%	18.0%	2.6%	0.7%	6.17	4.21	—
2023	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	0	46	238	59	51	1	0%	1.2	18.3%	25.3%	-6.9%	0.5%	5.44	5.05	—
2023	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	0	46	238	59	51	1	0%	1.2	18.3%	25.3%	-6.9%	0.5%	5.44	5.05	—
2023	24	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	0	46	238	59	51	1	0%	1.2	24.8%	21.4%	3.4%	0.4%	5.44	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	1.5%	5.30	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	1.5%	5.30	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	29.1%	11.5%	17.6%	1.2%	5.30	2.75	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	14.6%	20.8%	-6.2%	2.7%	6.65	5.98	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	14.6%	20.8%	-6.2%	2.7%	6.65	5.98	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	18.0%	18.9%	-0.9%	2.1%	6.65	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	LAD	5	0	5	21	3	5	1	0%	1.0	15.5%	22.1%	-6.6%	2.8%	6.49	6.49	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55	0	58	244	39	51	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	20.9%	-4.8%	2.9%	6.32	6.36	-1.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	55	233	38	47	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	20.3%	-3.8%	3.1%	6.27	6.34	-1.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAD	21	0	22	93	15	19	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	20.9%	-4.8%	2.9%	6.32	6.36	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	30	0	31	131	22	27	4	0%	1.0	16.5%	20.3%	-3.8%	3.1%	6.27	6.34	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	36	45	7	0%	1.0	16.3%	20.5%	-4.2%	3.0%	6.29	5.96	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	172	27	0%	1.1	16.3%	20.5%	-4.2%	3.0%	6.29	5.96	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		214	0	283	1323	244	250	15	0%	1.3	18.4%	18.9%	-0.4%	1.1%	5.09	4.54	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	936	172	177	10	0%	1.3	18.4%	18.9%	-0.4%	1.1%	5.09	4.54	-4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.49	15.5%	22.1%	2.8%	—	6.35	16.3%	-4.3%	113	-0.14	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	77
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	75
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	75
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	73
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	73
Holden Capps L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.3%	19.1%	2.1%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	215	72
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	72
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	71
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	69
Marcus Reyes L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	27	SU	5.84	12.7%	15.3%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	193	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.1%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	68
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	68
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	68
Zach Warren L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	15.2%	23.5%	0.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	184	68
Mason Melotakis L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	27	SU	5.66	12.0%	11.4%	3.9%	.343	7.85	14.7%	2.5%	29	+2.19	3.32	142	67
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	66
Eli Lingos L 2023 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.2%	11.6%	3.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	253	66
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	66
PJ Poulin L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	27	SU	5.87	13.6%	12.1%	4.3%	.306	3.40	23.5%	13.2%	164	-2.47	2.56	378	65
Caleb Baragar L 2021 · 5.72 FIP	27	SU	5.72	17.5%	14.8%	4.1%	.285	6.38	21.0%	7.6%	105	+0.66	3.65	557	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.0%	21.1%	1.13	6.36
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77