Kelvin Bautista
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 155 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145154vR 163
ERA6.46
FIP6.46
K%15.5%
BB%21.7%
K-BB%-6.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.9% | 17.4% | -3.5% | 0.0% | 5.00 | 4.13 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 5.00 | 3.14 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 14 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 26.5% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.26 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 14 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 39.0% | 11.0% | 28.0% | 0.8% | 2.48 | 1.72 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 19 | 0 | 25 | 101 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.5% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 1.82 | 3.16 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 19 | 0 | 25 | 101 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.7% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 0.0% | 1.82 | 1.96 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 42 | 0 | 54 | 267 | 55 | 48 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.2% | 21.2% | -6.0% | 0.7% | 6.17 | 4.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 42 | 0 | 54 | 267 | 55 | 48 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 18.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 6.17 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 40 | 0 | 46 | 238 | 59 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.3% | 25.3% | -6.9% | 0.5% | 5.44 | 5.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 40 | 0 | 46 | 238 | 59 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 21.4% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 5.44 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 244 | 71 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 5.30 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 244 | 71 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.1% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 1.2% | 5.30 | 2.75 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 0 | 47 | 233 | 42 | 44 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.6% | 20.8% | -6.2% | 2.8% | 6.65 | 6.05 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 0 | 47 | 233 | 42 | 44 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.0% | 18.9% | -0.9% | 2.1% | 6.65 | 5.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 39 | 55 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 21.7% | -6.2% | 2.8% | 6.46 | 6.46 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 39 | 50 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 20.6% | -4.5% | 2.9% | 6.30 | 6.33 | -1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 38 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 20.0% | -3.5% | 3.1% | 6.25 | 6.31 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 15 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 20.6% | -4.5% | 2.9% | 6.30 | 6.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 20.0% | -3.5% | 3.1% | 6.25 | 6.31 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 36 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 20.3% | -3.9% | 3.0% | 6.27 | 5.94 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 138 | 172 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 20.3% | -3.9% | 3.0% | 6.27 | 5.94 | -1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 214 | 0 | 283 | 1323 | 244 | 250 | 14 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 18.9% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 5.09 | 4.53 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 0 | 200 | 936 | 172 | 177 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 18.9% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 5.09 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kelvin Bautista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.46 | 15.5% | 21.7% | 2.8% | — | 6.32 | 16.3% | -4.0% | 113 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ty Madrigal L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 76 |
| Jared Beck L 2025 · 7.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 7.12 | 16.8% | 35.4% | 1.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 158 | 76 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 6.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.14 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 4.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 119 | 74 |
| Gil Luna L 2025 · 5.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.82 | 20.6% | 28.0% | 1.7% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 113 | 74 |
| Evan Lee L 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.33 | 17.2% | 25.3% | 0.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 129 | 73 |
| Holden Capps L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 15.3% | 19.1% | 2.3% | .392 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 215 | 72 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.12 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 4.9% | .282 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 81 | -2.90 | 3.20 | 194 | 72 |
| Davis Schwab L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 71 |
| Ryne Slack L 2025 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 71 |
| Eli Lingos L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.53 | 15.0% | 13.5% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.08 | 253 | 70 |
| PJ Poulin L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.93 | 14.4% | 14.1% | 4.1% | .306 | 3.52 | 24.2% | 13.2% | 164 | -2.41 | 2.69 | 378 | 70 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 69 |
| Marcus Reyes L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.79 | 12.7% | 15.3% | 3.3% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 193 | 69 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 6.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.79 | 13.5% | 17.5% | 4.8% | .362 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 127 | 68 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 68 |
| Eric Torres L 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.68 | 21.6% | 19.9% | 3.4% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 155 | 68 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.40 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .343 | 8.50 | 14.7% | 2.5% | 29 | +3.10 | 3.12 | 142 | 68 |
| Cody Beckman L 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.42 | 19.3% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 189 | 68 |
| Zach Warren L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.28 | 15.2% | 23.5% | 0.9% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 184 | 67 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 18.7% | 23.3% | 2.3% | .196 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 234 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 16.0% | 20.8% | 1.13 | 6.34 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |