PJ Poulin
P
Washington Nationals
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA3.99
FIP4.09
K%21.3%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.1
Whiff%
p1016.9%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
SL (35%)
SI (23%)
CH-1.3 (12%)
FB-1.6 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | 54 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 0.3% | 2.90 | 2.82 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | 54 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.2% | 0.4% | 2.90 | 2.07 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 176 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.40 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 176 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.5% | 8.5% | 25.0% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 2.63 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 267 | 79 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 267 | 79 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 21.0% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.35 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 32 | 0 | 50 | 238 | 39 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.4% | 14.1% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.93 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 32 | 0 | 50 | 238 | 39 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.4% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 6.08 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 245 | 73 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 2.10 | 2.69 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 245 | 73 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 9.4% | 20.4% | 0.4% | 2.10 | 2.03 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 3 | 67 | 294 | 89 | 30 | 6 | 5% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.48 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 3 | 67 | 294 | 89 | 30 | 6 | 5% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 10.2% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 3.48 | 2.95 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 41 | 11 | 43 | 179 | 28 | 25 | 5 | 27% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.95 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 70 | 293 | 52 | 37 | 8 | — | — | 17.8% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 3.36 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 64 | 269 | 52 | 37 | 8 | — | — | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.67 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 54 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 192 | 11 | 197 | 836 | 173 | 96 | 23 | 6% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 11 | 200 | 849 | 176 | 97 | 23 | 6% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 334 | 14 | 384 | 1657 | 368 | 178 | 38 | 4% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 3.85 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 7 | 200 | 863 | 192 | 93 | 20 | 4% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| PJ Poulin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.73 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 114 | +0.72 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 86 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 85 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .303 | 3.36 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.66 | 3.36 | 113 | 81 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 80 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 80 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 79 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 79 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 77 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 76 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.83 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 0.9% | .329 | 4.69 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 172 | +1.86 | 2.83 | 225 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 76 |
| Zach Duke L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 75 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 75 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.87 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.5% | .256 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.31 | 2.87 | 391 | 75 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 74 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 74 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.73 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.56 | 2.81 | 223 | 74 |
| J.P. Howell L 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.15 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 62 | +0.56 | 3.15 | 106 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 1.11 | 4.35 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |