PJ Poulin — OGILVIE

PJ Poulin P Washington Nationals

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA3.95

FIP4.01

K%20.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP64

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.1

Whiff%

p1016.9%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

SL (35%)

SI (23%)

CH-1.3 (12%)

FB-1.6 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	54	0	59	258	67	20	1	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	0.4%	2.90	2.86	—
2019	23	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	54	0	59	258	67	20	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	7.8%	18.2%	0.4%	2.90	2.07	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	45	176	59	15	4	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.6%	3.63	3.49	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	45	176	59	15	4	0%	1.0	33.5%	8.5%	25.0%	2.3%	3.63	2.63	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	267	79	23	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.4%	4.15	4.04	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	61	267	79	23	8	0%	1.1	29.6%	8.6%	21.0%	3.0%	4.15	3.35	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	32	0	50	238	39	32	10	0%	1.6	13.6%	12.1%	1.5%	4.4%	5.44	5.87	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	32	0	50	238	39	32	10	0%	1.6	13.6%	12.1%	1.5%	4.4%	5.44	5.87	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	32	0	50	238	39	32	10	0%	1.6	16.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.2%	5.44	6.08	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	245	73	23	1	0%	1.3	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	0.6%	2.10	2.56	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	245	73	23	1	0%	1.3	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	0.6%	2.10	2.56	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	245	73	23	1	0%	1.3	29.8%	9.4%	20.4%	0.4%	2.10	2.03	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	3	67	294	89	30	6	5%	1.1	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	2.4%	3.48	3.38	+0.9
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	3	67	294	89	30	6	5%	1.1	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	2.4%	3.48	3.38	+0.9
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	3	67	294	89	30	6	5%	1.1	30.3%	10.2%	20.1%	2.0%	3.48	2.95	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	11	61	263	52	33	6	17%	1.0	19.8%	12.5%	7.2%	2.3%	3.08	4.29	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	41	11	43	179	28	25	5	27%	1.0	16.3%	13.1%	3.3%	2.6%	2.95	4.81	-0.1
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	41	11	43	179	28	25	5	27%	1.0	16.3%	13.1%	3.3%	2.6%	2.95	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	WSH	6	0	6	26	3	5	1	0%	1.0	11.5%	19.2%	-7.7%	3.8%	4.50	6.67	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	WSH	35	11	37	153	25	20	4	31%	1.0	16.3%	13.1%	3.3%	2.6%	2.70	4.81	-0.1
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	WSH	35	11	37	153	25	20	4	31%	1.0	16.3%	13.1%	3.3%	2.6%	2.70	4.81	-0.1
ROS	30	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.5%	3.95	4.01	—
ROS	30	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.5%	3.95	4.01	—
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	43	179	28	25	5	—	—	15.6%	14.0%	1.7%	2.8%	2.95	4.81	-0.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	37	155	28	25	5	—	—	18.1%	16.1%	1.9%	3.2%	3.44	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	59	251	53	26	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	232	47	25	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.64	4.79	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	53	0	56	236	50	24	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	45	23	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.64	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	11	170	721	147	81	19	7%	1.0	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	2.7%	4.01	4.28	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	13	200	849	173	95	22	7%	1.0	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	2.7%	4.01	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		334	14	384	1657	361	169	38	4%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	2.3%	3.49	3.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	7	200	863	188	88	20	4%	1.1	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	2.3%	3.49	3.81	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
PJ Poulin (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.92	24.3%	8.8%	2.5%	—	4.67	20.8%	10.3%	114	+0.75	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	85
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	85
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	3.63	113	82
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	80
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	79
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	78
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	78
Cesár Ramos L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	19.5%	6.8%	0.9%	.329	4.68	15.9%	7.8%	172	+1.88	2.80	225	78
Marc Rzepczynski L 2016 · 2.79 FIP	30	SU	2.79	21.4%	9.8%	0.5%	.306	4.93	16.4%	3.3%	98	+2.14	2.73	181	77
Daniel Rodriguez L 2015 · 2.89 FIP	30	SU	2.89	20.2%	9.4%	0.6%	.256	4.17	16.3%	5.9%	234	+1.28	2.89	391	76
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	76
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	75
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	75
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	75
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	75
J.P. Howell L 2015 · 3.06 FIP	32	SU	3.06	20.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.326	3.62	18.5%	11.2%	62	+0.56	3.06	106	75
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	75
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	74
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	22.0%	9.9%	1.08	4.31
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47