Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 12 | 0 | 21 | 85 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.2% | 2.9% | 24.3% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 2.08 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 12 | 0 | 21 | 85 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 40.0% | 2.4% | 37.6% | 1.2% | 2.61 | 0.73 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 108 | 444 | 99 | 31 | 11 | 34% | 3.4 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 4.26 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 108 | 444 | 99 | 31 | 11 | 34% | 3.4 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 6 | 6 | 20 | 88 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 4.95 | 3.28 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 6 | 6 | 20 | 88 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.95 | 2.85 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 63 | 255 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 8% | 1.7 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.13 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 63 | 255 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 8% | 1.7 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 3.13 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 32 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 37 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.0% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.53 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 32 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 37 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.1% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | COL | 33 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.33 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 85 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 20 | 263 | 1089 | 191 | 99 | 29 | 17% | 2.2 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.25 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 15 | 200 | 829 | 145 | 75 | 22 | 17% | 2.2 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Lingos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.71 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 32 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 80 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 73 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 73 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 73 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 72 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 70 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 70 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 70 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 70 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 70 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 70 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 69 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 69 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 69 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 69 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 69 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .304 | 3.39 | 17.6% | 12.6% | 126 | -1.06 | 3.39 | 291 | 68 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 1.22 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |