Estarlin Rodriguez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Estarlin Rodriguez P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	5	19	76	17	4	0	50%	1.9	15.2%	6.6%	8.6%	0.0%	1.86	2.65	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	5	19	76	17	4	0	50%	1.9	22.4%	5.3%	17.1%	0.0%	1.86	1.96	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	13	11	45	203	24	30	2	85%	3.5	8.0%	18.5%	-10.4%	1.4%	3.60	5.52	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	13	11	45	203	24	30	2	85%	3.5	11.8%	14.8%	-3.0%	1.0%	3.60	4.61	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	8	0	22	104	18	11	1	0%	2.8	11.8%	13.2%	-1.5%	1.3%	4.09	4.52	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	8	0	22	104	18	11	1	0%	2.8	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.0%	4.09	3.55	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	56	257	39	28	3	7%	2.0	10.4%	15.0%	-4.5%	1.5%	5.95	4.96	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	56	257	39	28	3	7%	2.0	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	1.2%	5.95	3.90	—
2022	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	31	0	65	297	62	38	13	0%	2.1	15.4%	15.1%	0.4%	5.0%	6.40	6.48	—
2022	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	31	0	65	297	62	38	13	0%	2.1	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	4.4%	6.40	5.56	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	45	217	43	27	7	0%	1.5	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	4.2%	7.00	5.99	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	45	217	43	27	7	0%	1.5	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	4.2%	7.00	5.99	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	45	217	43	27	7	0%	1.5	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	3.2%	7.00	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	25	0	26	111	24	13	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.80	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	104	21	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		120	18	252	1154	145	171	32	15%	2.1	12.6%	14.8%	-2.3%	2.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	14	200	916	115	136	26	15%	2.1	12.6%	14.8%	-2.3%	2.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Estarlin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.2%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.80	21.4%	10.1%	26	-0.01	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	82
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	81
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	81
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	80
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	80
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	79
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	79
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.3%	11.4%	1.18	4.80
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16