Zane Mills
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%17.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 7 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 0.39 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 7 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 0.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 614 | 104 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 12.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 614 | 104 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.88 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 23 | 18 | 93 | 414 | 65 | 25 | 13 | 78% | 4.0 | 12.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.63 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 23 | 18 | 93 | 414 | 65 | 25 | 13 | 78% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 4.33 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 69 | 294 | 67 | 27 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 69 | 294 | 67 | 27 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.06 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 2 | 55 | 238 | 58 | 23 | 5 | 6% | 1.8 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 4.75 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 2 | 55 | 238 | 58 | 23 | 5 | 6% | 1.8 | 24.4% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 4.75 | 3.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 68 | 291 | 52 | 30 | 9 | — | — | 18.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 84 | 24 | 1% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 49 | 371 | 1605 | 241 | 128 | 43 | 41% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.31 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 26 | 200 | 865 | 130 | 69 | 23 | 41% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zane Mills (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 17.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.80 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 136 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 88 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 87 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 86 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 85 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 84 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 83 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 83 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 82 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 82 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 80 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.20 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.46 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.74 | 3.46 | 274 | 79 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 79 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 79 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 79 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 79 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.12 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |