Zane Mills — OGILVIE

Zane Mills P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%17.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	7	0	8	28	9	0	0	0%	1.1	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	1.17	0.39	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	7	0	8	28	9	0	0	0%	1.1	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	1.17	0.75	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	614	104	35	13	100%	5.5	12.9%	6.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.88	4.25	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	614	104	35	13	100%	5.5	16.9%	5.7%	11.2%	2.1%	3.88	3.56	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	18	93	414	65	25	13	78%	4.0	12.1%	6.9%	5.1%	3.6%	5.63	4.93	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	18	93	414	65	25	13	78%	4.0	12.1%	6.9%	5.1%	3.6%	5.63	4.93	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	23	18	93	414	65	25	13	78%	4.0	15.7%	6.0%	9.7%	3.1%	5.63	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.06	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.06	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.4%	4.06	3.65	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.4%	4.75	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.4%	4.75	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.1%	4.75	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CHC	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	5.9%	9.00	6.58	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	5.9	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	9	42	8	6	2	—	—	20.1%	13.1%	6.9%	4.1%	6.24	3.20	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	69	291	53	29	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.82	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	52	29	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.87	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	270	50	28	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	25	0	26	110	20	11	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.82	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	31	17	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.87	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	43	0	45	190	35	20	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	87	48	14	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.1%	4.85	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	86	25	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.1%	4.85	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		120	49	371	1605	241	128	45	41%	3.1	15.0%	8.0%	7.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	26	200	865	130	69	24	41%	3.1	15.0%	8.0%	7.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zane Mills (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.88	18.4%	8.3%	200	+0.05	—	—	—
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	87
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	87
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	85
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	85
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	84
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	84
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	84
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	83
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	83
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	82
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	18.2%	10.1%	1.16	4.84
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58