Skyler Messinger
3B Hartford Yard Goats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 276 | .250/.316/.355 | 4 | 9 | 40 | — | .159/.210/.234 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+COL | 462 | .239/.304/.366 | 10 | 12 | 34 | — | .177/.231/.274 |
| 2026 | 27 | AA/ROKCOL | 126 | .202/.287/.321 | 2 | 4 | 31 | — | .171/.246/.253 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBCOL | 2 | .192/.242/.296 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBCOL | 27 | .193/.243/.296 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 27 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 375 | 423 | 375 | 798 | 429 | 11 | 4 | 355 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 435 | 364 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 113 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 258 | 369 | 475 | 844 | 217 | 318 | 26 | 12 | 369 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 94 | 88 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 239 | 272 | 364 | 635 | 125 | 302 | 27 | 4 | 277 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 109 | 93 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 333 | 344 | 677 | 118 | 312 | 27 | 10 | 310 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 73 | 67 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 299 | 347 | 358 | 705 | 60 | 422 | 30 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 415 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 107 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 239 | 304 | 366 | 670 | 128 | 291 | 23 | 6 | 298 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 111 | 97 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 262 | 247 | 509 | 62 | 286 | 32 | 4 | 232 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 467 | 917 | 1.383 | 583 | 333 | 27 | 20 | 563 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 27 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 292 | 346 | 292 | 638 | 324 | 15 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 435 | 380 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 287 | 339 | 627 | 142 | 277 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 94 | 90 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 196 | 244 | 440 | 67 | 256 | 36 | 2 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 109 | 98 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 222 | 224 | 447 | 82 | 221 | 39 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 424 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 144 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 177 | 231 | 274 | 505 | 97 | 230 | 31 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 111 | 98 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 163 | 234 | 214 | 448 | 51 | 260 | 40 | 3 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 538 | 872 | 308 | 222 | 40 | 13 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 27 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 292 | 346 | 292 | 638 | 350 | 15 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 27 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 375 | 423 | 375 | 798 | 429 | 11 | 4 | 355 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 435 | 380 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 287 | 339 | 627 | 142 | 292 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 435 | 364 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 113 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 258 | 369 | 475 | 844 | 217 | 318 | 26 | 12 | 369 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 276 | 256 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 160 | 210 | 238 | 448 | 78 | 247 | 37 | 4 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK RAW | 3 teams | — | 276 | 248 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 250 | 316 | 355 | 671 | 105 | 337 | 28 | 7 | 301 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 424 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 144 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 177 | 231 | 274 | 505 | 97 | 239 | 31 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 415 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 107 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 239 | 304 | 366 | 670 | 128 | 291 | 23 | 6 | 298 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 112 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 170 | 238 | 250 | 488 | 80 | 286 | 40 | 3 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 126 | 109 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 119 | 290 | 32 | 6 | 272 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 27 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 280 | 346 | 280 | 626 | 324 | 15 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 435 | 384 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 195 | 287 | 336 | 623 | 141 | 277 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 276 | 258 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 159 | 210 | 236 | 446 | 78 | 237 | 37 | 4 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 429 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 144 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 175 | 231 | 270 | 502 | 96 | 230 | 31 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 115 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 165 | 238 | 243 | 481 | 78 | 255 | 40 | 3 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 276 | 258 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 159 | 210 | 236 | 446 | 78 | 237 | 37 | 4 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 462 | 429 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 144 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 175 | 231 | 270 | 502 | 96 | 230 | 31 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 115 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 165 | 238 | 243 | 481 | 78 | 255 | 40 | 3 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 2% | 200 | 186 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 184 | 234 | 278 | 511 | 94 | 270 | 34 | 4 | 232 | 43 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 242 | 296 | 538 | 104 | 282 | 50 | 0 | 242 | 43 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 23% | 120 | 111 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 235 | 278 | 513 | 94 | 270 | 34 | 4 | 232 | 43 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 23% | 27 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 243 | 296 | 539 | 103 | 281 | 33 | 4 | 243 | 43 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 200 | 422 | 40 | 250 | 33 | 4 | 243 | 43 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 96 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 217 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 222 | 199 | 421 | 40 | 249 | 33 | 4 | 243 | 43 | -44 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -3.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1530 | 1386 | 252 | 53 | 5 | 26 | 81 | 527 | 38 | 36 | 15 | 182 | 247 | 284 | 530 | 102 | 265 | 34 | 5 | 232 | 43 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 107 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 224 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 182 | 246 | 284 | 529 | 102 | 264 | 34 | 5 | 232 | 43 | -44 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 111 PAwOBA .230 → .195 (−35)K% 32.4% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 2.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 4.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 18.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 8.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .230 → .195; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .286 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Rockies · 15 PAwOBA .547 → .359 (−188)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 11.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 9.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 8.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 18.33% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .547 → .359; ISO .583 → .396; BABIP .333 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Spokane Indians · 462 PAwOBA .295 → .219 (−77)K% 23.2% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.16% | ÷1.005 | ×1.350 | — | — | 31.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 3.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.75% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.958 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.958 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.981 | ×0.958 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.25% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 2.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .295 → .219; ISO .128 → .096; BABIP .291 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rockies · 109 PAwOBA .305 → .189 (−116)K% 26.6% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.61% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.09% | ÷1.035 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×0.940 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.940 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.940 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 1.10% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .305 → .189; ISO .118 → .069; BABIP .312 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Spokane Indians · 94 PAwOBA .275 → .204 (−71)K% 26.6% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.60% | ÷0.996 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.26% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.999 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.086 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 2.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .275 → .204; ISO .125 → .085; BABIP .302 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 435 PAwOBA .365 → .272 (−93)K% 26.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.98% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.970 | 19.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.57% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.970 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.941 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×0.970 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.186 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 4.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .365 → .272; ISO .217 → .146; BABIP .318 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Rockies · 27 PAwOBA .346 → .259 (−87)K% 11.1% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 2.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.035 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 32.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .259; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .