Kelvin Nunez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Kelvin Nunez P Everett AquaSox

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	15	13	56	242	40	20	1	87%	3.7	11.2%	10.3%	0.9%	0.6%	3.54	3.78	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	15	13	56	242	40	20	1	87%	3.7	16.5%	8.3%	8.3%	0.4%	3.54	2.98	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	7	47	200	30	17	1	58%	3.9	10.2%	10.6%	-0.4%	0.7%	2.89	3.97	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	7	47	200	30	17	1	58%	3.9	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	0.5%	2.89	3.19	—
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	7	28	7	1	1	0%	3.3	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	3.6%	4.05	3.40	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	7	28	7	1	1	0%	3.3	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	3.6%	4.05	3.40	—
2021	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	25	6	55	251	50	22	8	24%	2.2	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	4.8%	6.09	5.81	—
2021	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	25	6	55	251	50	22	8	24%	2.2	19.9%	8.8%	11.2%	3.2%	6.09	4.38	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	1	68	295	77	19	9	3%	1.9	20.5%	7.1%	13.4%	4.3%	4.79	4.65	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	1	68	295	77	19	9	3%	1.9	26.1%	6.4%	19.7%	3.1%	4.79	3.40	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	31	4	63	288	35	35	10	13%	2.0	9.4%	14.0%	-4.6%	4.3%	5.29	6.43	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	31	4	63	288	35	35	10	13%	2.0	9.4%	14.0%	-4.6%	4.3%	5.29	6.43	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	31	4	63	288	35	35	10	13%	2.0	12.2%	12.2%	0.0%	3.5%	5.29	5.72	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	11.6%	6.7%	3.1%	5.08	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	41	0	43	183	34	21	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.03	5.04	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	15	0	16	68	13	8	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.03	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	13	8	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.03	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	101	25	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.03	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		121	31	295	1304	179	134	41	26%	2.4	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.97	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	21	200	885	122	91	28	26%	2.4	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.97	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Nunez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	18.3%	11.6%	3.1%	—	5.04	18.8%	7.3%	43	-0.04	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	87
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	83
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	82
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	79
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	79
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	78
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	78
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	78
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	78
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	18.5%	11.5%	1.19	5.06
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27