Moises Lugo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Moises Lugo P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%24.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	13	13	64	254	54	17	1	100%	4.9	14.5%	8.4%	6.1%	0.6%	1.97	3.24	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	13	13	64	254	54	17	1	100%	4.9	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	0.4%	1.97	2.41	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	2	2	3	23	4	4	0	100%	1.5	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%	0.0%	24.00	3.83	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	2	2	3	23	4	4	0	100%	1.5	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%	0.0%	24.00	4.43	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	2	40	167	41	8	3	14%	2.9	18.5%	4.5%	14.0%	1.0%	3.83	2.66	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	2	40	167	41	8	3	14%	2.9	24.6%	4.8%	19.8%	1.8%	3.83	2.62	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	90	376	115	40	10	83%	3.9	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.2%	3.19	4.38	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	90	376	115	40	10	83%	3.9	30.6%	10.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.19	3.32	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	73	306	97	39	6	3%	1.9	26.7%	14.5%	12.2%	2.1%	3.22	3.86	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	73	306	97	39	6	3%	1.9	31.7%	12.7%	19.0%	2.0%	3.22	3.11	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	46	0	50	240	69	38	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	14.2%	10.5%	1.7%	6.16	3.77	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	46	0	50	240	69	38	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	14.2%	10.5%	1.7%	6.16	3.77	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	46	0	50	240	69	38	4	0%	1.1	28.7%	15.8%	12.9%	1.7%	6.16	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	27	0	29	121	29	14	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.56	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	11	0	12	51	12	6	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	12	6	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.18	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	98	33	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		137	37	320	1366	302	157	26	27%	2.3	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	1.9%	3.69	3.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	855	189	98	16	27%	2.3	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	1.9%	3.69	3.73	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moises Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	24.1%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.56	23.9%	12.5%	29	+0.06	—	—	—
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	75
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	74
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	73
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	73
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	73
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	73
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	73
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	72
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	72
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	72
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	72
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	24.0%	11.5%	1.15	4.51
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35