Adam Macko

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #437

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	20	20	93	4.63	3.37	26.9%	9.0%	—	K 21.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.70
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	14	81	4.76	3.26	25.5%	10.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.84
2026	25	MIX2 levels	55	2	64	4.90	3.71	24.1%	8.6%	0.6	K 22.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	62	0	65	4.50	4.38	22.1%	9.5%	0.1
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBTEX	44	0	46	4.44	4.41	22.2%	9.5%	0.1
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBTEX	50	0	53	4.47	4.49	22.2%	9.7%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%69

FB Velo51

K%50

xwOBA vs24

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsWesley Wright (age 25) · Ben Holmes (age 26) · Jordan Carr (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.50

FIP4.38

K%22.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4045

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	8	2	21	94	31	11	1	25%	2.7	22.4%	14.6%	7.8%	1.5%	3.38	3.88	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	8	2	21	94	31	11	1	25%	2.7	33.0%	11.7%	21.3%	1.1%	3.38	2.35	—
2021	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	9	9	33	155	56	21	1	100%	3.7	26.7%	16.0%	10.7%	1.0%	4.59	3.40	—
2021	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	9	9	33	155	56	21	1	100%	3.7	36.1%	13.5%	22.6%	0.6%	4.59	2.02	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	8	8	38	167	60	20	4	100%	4.8	27.7%	13.8%	13.9%	2.4%	3.99	3.84	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	8	8	38	167	60	20	4	100%	4.8	35.9%	12.0%	24.0%	2.4%	3.99	2.89	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	20	20	86	372	106	40	7	100%	4.3	21.9%	12.4%	9.6%	1.9%	4.81	3.84	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	20	20	86	372	106	40	7	100%	4.3	28.5%	10.8%	17.7%	1.9%	4.81	3.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.2%	4.63	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.2%	4.63	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	93	390	105	35	10	100%	4.7	26.9%	9.0%	17.9%	2.6%	4.63	3.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.2%	4.76	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.2%	4.76	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	81	357	91	39	6	61%	3.5	25.5%	10.9%	14.6%	1.7%	4.76	3.26	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	2.7%	4.90	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	2.7%	4.90	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	2	64	291	70	25	8	4%	1.2	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.90	3.71	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	1	31	145	32	11	5	3%	1.0	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	3.4%	5.23	4.20	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	62	0	65	274	61	26	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	69	0	72	304	68	29	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	70	295	66	28	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	282	61	28	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	60	0	63	265	56	27	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.84	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	44	0	46	194	43	18	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	53	224	50	22	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	52	0	55	232	50	23	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	51	0	54	228	48	23	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	1	239	1024	223	97	33	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.20	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	1	200	856	187	81	28	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		143	75	418	1826	412	205	38	52%	2.9	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.61	3.76	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	36	200	874	197	98	18	52%	2.9	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.61	3.76	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Macko (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	22.1%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.51	22.0%	12.4%	209	+0.13	—	—	—
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	78
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	74
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	73
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	71
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	71
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	70
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	70
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	70
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	70
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	70
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	69
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	69
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	69
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	69
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	69
Sam Long L 2021 · 3.34 FIP	26	SW	3.34	24.6%	8.5%	2.2%	.274	4.20	19.5%	10.3%	191	+0.86	3.08	446	68
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	21.9%	9.7%	1.20	4.60
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*