MacKenzie Gore

P Texas Rangers

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBWSH	32	32	166	3.90	3.27	24.8%	8.9%	3.3
2025	26	MLBWSH	30	30	160	4.17	3.61	27.2%	9.4%	2.5
2026	27	MLBTEX	34	34	173	4.58	3.71	23.2%	9.2%	2.5
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	28	28	168	4.09	3.98	25.0%	9.2%	1.8
2028PROJ	29	MLBTEX	27	27	160	4.23	4.25	24.4%	9.4%	1.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBTEX	25	25	151	4.38	4.47	23.7%	9.8%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$10M2028Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

K%55

xwOBA vs48

Whiff%47

CompsErik Bedard (age 28) · Jose Quintana (age 28) · Héctor Santiago (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA4.09

FIP3.98

K%25.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP168

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL4555

CMD5055

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

CH+1.0 (13%)

CT+0.8 (6%)

SI (5%)

CU (18%)

SL (10%)

FB-1.3 (53%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$14M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$13M	+1.4	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$25M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	27.5%	10.4%	17.1%	0.0%	1.27	2.10	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	7	7	21	84	34	7	0	100%	3.0	40.5%	8.3%	32.1%	0.0%	1.27	0.90	—
2018	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	21.0%	8.1%	12.8%	2.1%	4.45	3.52	—
2018	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	16	16	61	261	74	18	5	100%	3.8	28.4%	6.9%	21.5%	1.9%	4.45	2.62	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	27.8%	8.4%	19.4%	2.2%	1.69	3.02	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	101	378	135	28	7	100%	5.0	35.7%	7.4%	28.3%	1.9%	1.69	2.16	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	1.8%	3.93	3.85	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	50	223	61	28	3	100%	4.2	27.4%	12.6%	14.8%	1.3%	3.93	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	22.7%	10.8%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.99	+0.9
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	87	380	88	41	10	86%	4.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	2.6%	4.34	3.99	+0.9
2023	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.70	+0.3
2023	24	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	27	27	136	582	151	57	27	100%	5.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.2%	4.6%	4.42	4.71	+0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.26	+3.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.26	+3.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	166	731	181	65	15	100%	5.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.1%	3.90	3.27	+3.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
2025	26	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	30	30	160	680	185	64	20	100%	5.3	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.61	+2.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	34	34	173	750	174	69	19	100%	5.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.60	+2.7
2026	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	34	34	173	750	174	69	19	100%	5.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.60	+2.7
2026	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	34	34	173	750	174	69	19	100%	5.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.5%	4.58	3.71	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			139	136	705	3052	763	292	88	98%	5.1	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.29	3.80	+9.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	28	28	168	709	177	65	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.2%	15.7%	2.6%	4.09	3.98	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	160	676	165	64	19	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.4%	14.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.14	+1.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	151	636	151	62	19	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	3.0%	4.26	4.35	+1.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	140	593	136	60	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.45	4.58	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	548	121	58	19	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.83	+0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	119	503	107	55	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.9%	10.3%	3.7%	4.94	5.11	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	160	676	165	64	20	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.4%	14.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.25	+1.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	25	25	151	638	151	62	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.47	+1.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	TEX	23	23	140	591	135	60	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.4%	4.58	4.71	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	130	549	121	58	20	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.97	+0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	119	502	107	55	20	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.9%	10.3%	4.0%	5.09	5.26	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		256	253	1406	6009	1443	590	189	99%	5.5	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.05	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	855	205	84	27	99%	5.5	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		199	196	956	4069	1003	383	107	98%	4.8	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.66	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	852	210	80	22	98%	4.8	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.66	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
MacKenzie Gore (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	25.0%	9.2%	2.6%	—	4.35	23.7%	13.9%	451	+0.37	—	—	—
Erik Bedard L 2007 · 2.96 FIP	28	SP	2.96	30.2%	7.8%	2.6%	.280	3.77	23.3%	13.1%	164	+0.81	2.96	1,317	61
Jose Quintana L 2017 · 3.46 FIP	28	SP	3.46	26.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.292	4.02	20.9%	13.4%	345	+0.56	2.69	2,139	61
Héctor Santiago L 2016 · 5.12 FIP	28	SP	5.12	18.3%	10.1%	4.2%	.257	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	310	-0.03	4.07	1,059	60
Wade Miley L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	28	SP	3.73	17.7%	7.7%	2.1%	.305	4.15	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.42	3.12	1,805	59
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,226	58
Ted Lilly L 2004 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP	4.41	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.257	4.46	19.5%	11.2%	515	+0.05	3.61	1,975	57
Jorge De La Rosa L 2009 · 3.70 FIP	28	SP	3.70	24.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.300	3.89	21.2%	11.9%	191	+0.19	3.24	1,537	57
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	1,191	56
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,596	55
Matthew Boyd L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	30.2%	6.2%	5.2%	.301	4.32	21.2%	13.6%	152	+0.15	2.22	1,457	54
Doug Davis L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	28	SP	3.47	18.9%	8.6%	1.6%	.285	4.13	18.9%	8.7%	619	+0.66	3.47	1,713	54
Chris Capuano L 2007 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP	4.06	19.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.323	4.06	19.4%	12.2%	66	+0.00	3.40	1,458	54
Nate Robertson L 2006 · 4.53 FIP	28	SP	4.53	15.6%	7.4%	3.3%	.272	4.47	14.7%	6.8%	396	-0.06	4.13	1,144	53
Tom Gorzelanny L 2010 · 3.82 FIP	28	SP-	3.82	19.7%	10.6%	1.9%	.305	3.87	21.7%	13.8%	262	+0.05	2.67	899	53
Jonathan Sánchez L 2011 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	23.0%	14.4%	2.2%	.264	6.03	14.9%	0.1%	78	+1.84	3.65	895	51
Patrick Corbin L 2017 · 3.80 FIP	28	SP	3.80	21.5%	6.4%	3.1%	.320	2.97	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.30	2,144	51
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	49
Wandy Rodriguez L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	20.2%	7.7%	2.8%	.290	3.39	22.2%	15.0%	538	-0.52	3.37	1,572	49
Joe Saunders L 2009 · 4.99 FIP	28	SP	4.99	12.5%	7.7%	3.6%	.282	4.39	13.4%	6.8%	590	-0.60	3.86	1,378	48
Cole Irvin L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	17.3%	4.5%	3.7%	.268	4.39	16.5%	11.1%	238	+0.15	3.37	1,183	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.9	143	24.1%	9.8%	1.16	4.34
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Dave Boswell ('64-'71, 11 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.7%*	10.5%*	1.28*	4.27*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49