Bryan Mata — OGILVIE

Bryan Mata P Worcester Red Sox

+0.5 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%24.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%12.5%

IP62

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

K†6060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	16.8%	9.6%	1.1%	2.80	3.52	+1.0
2017	18	A	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	16.8%	9.4%	0.8%	3.74	3.30	+1.6
2018	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	14.4%	20.4%	0.4%	3.50	4.70	+0.3
2019	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	19.5%	10.5%	1.9%	3.43	3.83	+1.7
2022	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	24.5%	13.7%	1.6%	2.49	3.65	+1.4
2023	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	17.5%	22.3%	0.8%	6.33	4.88	+0.0
2024	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	—	—	—	4.37	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	25.6%	12.8%	2.1%	5.08	3.71	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	BOS	11	11	62	260	63	31	7	24.4%	11.9%	2.6%	4.35	4.35	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	BOS	11	11	61	256	62	30	7	24.2%	11.7%	2.7%	4.36	4.37	+0.4
2028	29	MLB	BOS	59	—	59	250	60	29	7	24.1%	11.6%	2.7%	4.39	4.41	+0.4
2029	30	MLB	BOS	58	—	58	243	58	28	7	23.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.47	+0.3
2030	31	MLB	BOS	56	—	56	234	55	27	7	23.6%	11.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2031	32	MLB	BOS	53	—	53	225	52	26	7	23.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.63	+0.2
2032	33	MLB	BOS	51	—	51	215	49	26	7	23.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.72	+0.1
2033	34	MLB	BOS	48	—	48	204	46	25	6	22.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.1
2034	35	MLB	BOS	46	—	46	193	43	24	6	22.3%	12.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.96	-0.0
2035	36	MLB	BOS	43	—	43	180	39	23	6	21.8%	12.6%	3.4%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			150	101	515	2255	443	297	30	19.6%	13.2%	1.3%	3.67	3.83	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—			58	39	200	876	172	115	12	19.6%	13.2%	1.3%	3.67	3.83	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	24.4%	11.9%	2.6%	—	4.42	24.1%	12.5%	178	+0.07	—	—	—
Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	90
Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	27	SW	3.18	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.63	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.45	3.18	124	88
Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP	27	SW	3.62	25.2%	11.3%	2.2%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.53	3.07	307	88
Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	27	SW	3.86	27.3%	10.0%	3.3%	.280	4.05	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.19	3.02	363	86
Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	27	SW	4.41	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.38	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.97	3.46	173	86
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	27	SW	3.48	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.33	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.85	2.36	309	86
Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	27	SW	3.36	26.6%	12.2%	1.7%	.282	5.08	24.5%	12.2%	89	+1.72	1.95	523	86
Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	27	SW	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	86
Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	27	SW	4.02	22.5%	11.8%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	242	85
Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	27	SW	3.54	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.87	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	509	85
Brad Brach R 2028 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	84
Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP	26	SW	3.89	22.8%	12.7%	2.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	176	84
Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	84
Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SW	3.80	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.70	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.10	3.17	269	84
Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP	28	SW	3.34	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.07	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.73	3.25	150	84
Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	27	SW	3.26	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.48	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.22	3.07	185	83
Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	27	SW	3.82	23.0%	9.1%	2.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	149	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	28	SW	3.72	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.333	4.05	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.70	147	83
Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.83	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.66	2.83	239	83
Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SW	4.81	23.3%	10.7%	4.2%	.341	4.59	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.22	3.74	223	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.1M
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M