Bryan Mata — OGILVIE

Bryan Mata P Worcester Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%24.2%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	1.1%	2.80	3.52	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	24.7%	7.7%	17.0%	0.8%	2.80	2.46	—
2017	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	16.8%	9.4%	7.4%	0.8%	3.74	3.30	—
2017	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	0.9%	3.74	2.70	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	14.4%	20.4%	-6.0%	0.4%	3.50	4.69	—
2018	19	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	18.7%	17.7%	0.9%	0.3%	3.50	4.00	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.1%	1.9%	3.43	3.84	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	1.6%	3.43	3.05	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	1.6%	2.49	3.64	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	30.3%	13.3%	17.0%	1.4%	2.49	3.02	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	16.5%	19.1%	-2.7%	0.8%	6.33	4.56	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	16.5%	19.1%	-2.7%	0.8%	6.33	4.56	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	19.9%	21.3%	-1.4%	0.7%	6.33	4.84	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	24.1%	11.0%	13.2%	2.1%	5.08	3.60	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	24.1%	11.0%	13.2%	2.1%	5.08	3.60	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	29.1%	12.2%	16.9%	1.9%	5.08	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BOS	2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	5.0	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	121	512	122	57	14	100%	6.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.37	+0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	116	489	115	54	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.43	4.50	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	109	459	106	52	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.66	+0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	429	97	49	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	396	88	47	14	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	3.6%	4.94	5.08	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	52	220	52	24	6	100%	5.8	23.9%	11.1%	12.7%	2.7%	4.30	4.33	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	67	32	8	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.46	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	77	325	75	37	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.52	4.62	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	76	38	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.80	+0.0
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	73	39	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	3.5%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	354	1495	343	170	46	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.30	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	96	26	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		150	101	515	2255	437	287	30	67%	3.4	19.4%	12.7%	6.6%	1.3%	3.67	3.80	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	39	200	876	170	111	12	67%	3.4	19.4%	12.7%	6.6%	1.3%	3.67	3.80	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	24.2%	11.3%	2.6%	—	4.50	23.5%	12.3%	346	+0.20	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	81
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	78
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	74
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	73
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	72
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	72
Osvaldo Bido R 2023 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	20.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.293	4.70	20.6%	11.4%	227	+1.00	3.70	732	72
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	72
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	72
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	25	SP-	4.18	18.9%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.02	16.6%	6.0%	224	+0.84	4.18	533	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	70
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	70
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	70
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	178	70
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	111	23.3%	11.3%	1.16	4.53
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24