Bryan Mata

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	AAABOS	9	7	27	6.33	4.84	19.9%	21.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.51
2024	25	MIX4 levels	11	7	23	4.37	3.10	20.6%	9.3%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.10
2025	26	AAABOS	42	0	67	5.08	3.23	29.1%	12.2%	—	K 25.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.53
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	2	2	12	4.20	4.20	25.5%	10.6%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBBOS	7	7	40	4.28	4.33	24.9%	10.6%	0.5
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBBOS	9	9	53	4.41	4.51	24.3%	10.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command55

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Jose Contreras (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%25.5%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	1.1%	2.80	3.52	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	24.7%	7.7%	17.0%	0.8%	2.80	2.46	—
2017	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	16.8%	9.4%	7.4%	0.8%	3.74	3.30	—
2017	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	0.9%	3.74	2.70	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	14.4%	20.4%	-6.0%	0.4%	3.50	4.69	—
2018	19	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	18.7%	17.7%	0.9%	0.3%	3.50	4.00	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.1%	1.9%	3.43	3.84	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	1.6%	3.43	3.05	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	1.6%	2.49	3.64	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	30.3%	13.3%	17.0%	1.4%	2.49	3.02	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	17.1%	19.1%	-2.1%	0.8%	6.33	4.51	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	19.9%	21.3%	-1.4%	0.7%	6.33	4.84	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.08	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.08	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	29.1%	12.2%	16.9%	1.9%	5.08	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	2	2	12	51	13	5	1	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	108	455	113	48	13	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+1.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	95	403	98	43	13	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+1.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	85	359	85	39	12	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.7
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	75	315	73	35	11	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	+0.4
2032	33	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	270	62	31	11	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.16	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	40	169	42	18	5	100%	5.7	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	54	24	7	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	58	27	8	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	56	27	9	100%	5.7	23.3%	11.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	+0.3
2032	33	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	51	26	9	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	259	1095	260	120	37	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.36	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	201	93	29	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		150	101	515	2255	440	287	30	67%	3.4	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	1.3%	3.67	3.79	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	39	200	876	171	111	12	67%	3.4	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	1.3%	3.67	3.79	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 67 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.53 (+0.31)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.06%	—	×0.860	24.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.19%	—	×0.900	10.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.21 (+0.23)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×0.900	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 8 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.23 (+0.35)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.810	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.100	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 27 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.51 (+0.00)K% 19.9% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.86%	—	×0.860	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.28%	—	×0.900	19.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.008	×1.100	0.77%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 49 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.04 (+0.84)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.44%	—	×0.810	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×1.100	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.004	×1.200	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 23 IPFIP 2.48 → 2.87 (+0.39)K% 29.4% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.880	25.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.050	15.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.939	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 9 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.61 (+1.40)K% 38.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.770	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.996	×1.250	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 54 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.58 (+0.90)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.21%	—	×0.810	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.100	11.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.953	×1.200	3.23%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	25.5%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.50	24.4%	13.7%	288	+0.30	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	73
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	73
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72
Jose A. Flores R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	20.1%	8.7%	1.1%	.297	4.77	13.7%	3.4%	57	+1.68	2.94	237	69
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	67
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	67
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	67
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	66
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Matt Swarmer R 2022 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	22.4%	10.6%	4.5%	.270	5.47	16.9%	2.8%	32	+0.46	3.23	617	66
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	65
Brian Keller R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	23.6%	11.6%	2.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	1.89	613	65
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	65
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	92	24.3%	10.8%	1.24	4.48
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Wes Gardner ('84-'91, -0 WAR*)	2.3	78	23.2%*	10.4%*	1.24*	5.03*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87