Bryan Mata
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 88 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%25.6%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP89
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 14 | 14 | 61 | 247 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 2.80 | 3.52 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 14 | 14 | 61 | 247 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.7% | 7.7% | 17.0% | 0.8% | 2.80 | 2.46 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Greenville Drive | 17 | 17 | 77 | 326 | 74 | 26 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 0.6% | 3.74 | 3.19 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Greenville Drive | 17 | 17 | 77 | 326 | 74 | 26 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 3.74 | 2.70 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 17 | 17 | 72 | 327 | 61 | 58 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 14.4% | 20.4% | -6.0% | 0.4% | 3.50 | 4.71 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 17 | 17 | 72 | 327 | 61 | 58 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.7% | 17.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.50 | 4.00 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 450 | 111 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.88 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 450 | 111 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | 3.43 | 3.05 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 18 | 83 | 347 | 105 | 46 | 5 | 95% | 4.4 | 24.5% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 18 | 83 | 347 | 105 | 46 | 5 | 95% | 4.4 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 2.49 | 3.02 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 9 | 7 | 27 | 141 | 28 | 30 | 1 | 78% | 3.0 | 17.5% | 22.3% | -4.9% | 0.8% | 6.33 | 4.88 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 9 | 7 | 27 | 141 | 28 | 30 | 1 | 78% | 3.0 | 19.9% | 21.3% | -1.4% | 0.7% | 6.33 | 4.84 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 7 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 64% | 2.1 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.0% | 4.37 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 7 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 64% | 2.1 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.0% | 4.37 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 42 | 0 | 67 | 320 | 93 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 5.08 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 42 | 0 | 67 | 320 | 93 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.1% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 5.08 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 135 | 69 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 121 | 512 | 128 | 65 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 120 | 61 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 109 | 459 | 111 | 58 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 102 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 94 | 396 | 92 | 52 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 86 | 364 | 83 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 55 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 71 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 78 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 79 | 43 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.95 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 77 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 72 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 72 | 429 | 1812 | 432 | 234 | 60 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.55 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 109 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 101 | 515 | 2255 | 443 | 297 | 30 | 67% | 3.4 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 3.67 | 3.83 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 39 | 200 | 876 | 172 | 115 | 11 | 67% | 3.4 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 3.67 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Mata (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 25.6% | 13.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.60 | 24.6% | 12.0% | 346 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 77 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 74 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 72 |
| Osvaldo Bido R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.67 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .293 | 4.71 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 227 | +1.04 | 3.67 | 732 | 70 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 70 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 70 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 70 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 69 |
| Deylen Miley R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 69 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 69 |
| Cory Abbott R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.95 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .300 | 5.28 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 151 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 703 | 68 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 68 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 378 | 67 |
| Luke Farrell R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.61 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 25 | +0.35 | 3.84 | 584 | 66 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 66 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 66 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 66 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 66 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 107 | 24.3% | 12.9% | 1.21 | 4.70 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |