Matt Swarmer
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 32
RHP
6'5" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION17 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.63
FIP4.89
xFIP4.68
SIERA4.52
K%21.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.1%
IP18
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.5
Whiff%
p8831.3%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.362
SL-3.4
FB-7.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 8 | 5 | 19 | 81 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.23 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 17 | 5 | 65 | 289 | 68 | 14 | 8 | 17.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.82 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 24 | 24 | 129 | 516 | 135 | 21 | 10 | 20.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.22 | 3.38 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 25 | 151 | 663 | 137 | 41 | 36 | 18.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.65 | 5.37 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 24 | 20 | 113 | 473 | 120 | 35 | 22 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.79 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 20 | 115 | 498 | 122 | 51 | 21 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 4.21 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 19 | 1 | 32 | 153 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 17.3% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 8.07 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 18 | — | 18 | 74 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 151 | 100 | 624 | 2673 | 534 | 209 | 113 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 4.73 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 32 | 200 | 857 | 171 | 67 | 36 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Swarmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | — | 5.11 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 20 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.03 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.89 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 279 | +0.86 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 83 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.90 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% | .290 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 416 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 918 | 79 |
| James Shields R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.36 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 4.1% | .292 | 5.12 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 517 | +0.76 | 4.36 | 720 | 78 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.07 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | .313 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 424 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 869 | 77 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 77 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.36 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | .313 | 4.76 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 94 | +0.40 | 3.13 | 942 | 74 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 74 |
| Jake Peavy R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 72 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 72 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.14 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .315 | 5.02 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.88 | 3.67 | 469 | 71 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 71 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.93 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.62 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 72 | +0.69 | 3.65 | 682 | 70 |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 70 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 69 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 67 |
| Colby Lewis R 2029 · 3.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.91 | 16.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.70 | 15.5% | 9.6% | 116 | +0.79 | 3.91 | 321 | 66 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.44 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 172 | -0.39 | 3.59 | 455 | 65 |
| Dan Haren R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 65 |
| Nestor Molina R 2024 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 65 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.