Freddy Fermin — OGILVIE

Freddy FerminC San Diego Padres

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs MLB HR -7% Svc 2.959S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 176 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8486vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .310 / .350

PA176

HR3

K%19

BB%7

BABIP298

ISO100

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

699.0%

xwOBA

200.274

POWER40

Barrel%

133.5

Avg EV

3788.2

Bat Spd

3569.7

EYE45

Chase%

6628.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 758 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

230

528

—

wRC+

—

wOBA

287

290

—

ISO

077

092

▶▶R

BABIP

308

298

◀L

17.8%

18.8%

◀L

BB%

6.1%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.2	$9M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.6M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	DSL Royals	—	203	181	39	7	0	0	12	33	3	1	2	215	276	254	530	39	253	16	6	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	DSL Royals	—	203	172	47	9	0	0	21	23	3	1	2	273	362	326	688	52	303	11	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	201	175	40	4	2	1	19	30	4	0	2	229	318	291	610	63	265	15	9	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	201	163	46	5	2	1	31	21	4	0	2	282	409	356	765	74	312	10	15	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	206	187	38	8	1	2	15	24	2	2	1	203	270	289	558	86	222	12	7	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	206	177	44	10	1	2	25	17	2	2	1	249	348	350	698	102	264	8	12	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A	3 teams	—	354	338	68	11	0	10	11	80	1	2	2	201	229	322	551	121	232	23	3	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A	3 teams	—	354	332	85	14	0	12	17	64	1	2	2	256	294	407	701	151	283	18	5	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	2 teams	—	319	291	71	10	1	10	22	68	4	1	1	244	306	388	694	144	285	21	7	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	2 teams	—	319	282	78	14	1	10	31	56	4	1	1	277	356	440	796	163	313	18	10	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	541	484	103	19	0	20	49	127	2	3	1	213	288	376	664	163	242	23	9	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	541	462	147	30	1	19	71	86	2	3	1	318	411	511	922	193	353	16	13	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	3 teams	—	353	321	93	15	1	18	24	73	4	0	0	290	347	511	858	221	322	21	7	361	135	+14	+0	+9	+6	+10	4.0
2023	28	MLB	3 teams	—	353	314	88	14	2	15	31	70	4	0	0	280	352	481	833	201	315	20	9	364	137	+15	+0	+9	+6	+10	4.1
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	368	339	94	15	0	6	23	66	2	2	0	277	327	375	702	97	326	18	6	310	95	-2	+0	+13	+7	+10	2.9
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	368	339	92	14	0	6	23	66	2	2	0	271	321	366	687	94	319	18	6	307	93	-3	+0	+13	+7	+10	2.8
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	396	363	94	16	0	6	22	74	3	1	2	259	307	353	659	94	310	19	6	285	76	-11	-1	+9	+7	+11	1.7
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	396	359	90	17	0	5	26	72	3	1	2	251	307	340	647	89	300	18	7	288	79	-10	-1	+9	+7	+11	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	SD	—	162	138	21	7	0	3	17	32	2	0	1	152	255	268	523	116	171	20	10	235	38	-11	-0	+2	+3	+5	-0.2
YTD	31	MLB	SD	—	162	138	21	7	0	3	17	32	2	0	1	152	255	268	523	116	171	20	10	238	40	-11	-0	+2	+3	+5	-0.1
ROS	31	MLB	SD	100%	176	160	40	7	0	3	13	34	1	1	1	250	310	350	660	100	297	19	7	303	90	-2	-0	+2	+3	+5	0.8
ROS	31	MLB	SD	100%	176	160	39	7	0	3	13	34	1	1	1	244	305	344	648	100	293	19	7	293	82	-4	-0	+2	+3	+5	0.6
FULL	31	MLB	SD	—	338	298	60	14	0	6	30	66	3	1	2	201	281	309	590	107	236	20	9	265	61	-15	-1	+4	+6	+10	0.5
TOT	31	MLB	SD	—	338	298	61	14	0	6	30	66	3	1	2	205	284	312	596	107	240	20	9	270	65	-13	-1	+4	+6	+10	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	SD	92%	319	289	75	13	0	6	24	63	3	1	1	260	323	367	690	107	309	20	8	308	94	-2	-0	-0	+6	+9	1.2
2028	33	MLB	SD	92%	281	256	64	10	0	5	21	57	2	1	1	250	312	348	659	98	304	20	7	300	88	-4	-0	-1	+5	+8	0.8
2027	32	MLB	SD	92%	293	267	67	11	0	5	22	58	2	1	1	251	313	348	661	97	306	20	8	298	86	-5	-0	-0	+5	+8	0.9
2028	33	MLB	SD	92%	259	236	58	9	0	4	19	53	2	1	1	246	307	335	642	89	301	20	7	290	80	-6	-0	-1	+5	+7	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1678	1538	397	64	1	32	109	326	10	6	5	258	311	363	675	105	307	19	6	301	89	-22	-1	+31	+33	+48	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	153	25	0	12	42	126	4	2	2	257	310	359	669	102	306	19	6	301	89	-8	-0	+12	+13	+18	3.5
Career	—			—	3717	3384	819	135	5	87	255	729	31	15	14	242	301	362	663	120	282	20	7	290	80	-83	-3	+32	+66	+105	12.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	144	24	1	15	45	127	5	3	2	243	302	363	665	120	284	20	7	290	80	-15	-0	+6	+12	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	DSL Royals	—	203	172	47	9	0	0	21	23	3	1	2	273	362	326	688	52	303	11	10	309	95	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2017	22	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	201	163	46	5	2	1	31	21	4	0	2	282	409	356	765	74	312	10	15	352	127	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.1
2018	23	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	206	177	44	10	1	2	25	17	2	2	1	249	348	350	698	102	264	8	12	318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+6	0.6
2019	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	112	107	27	3	0	3	3	23	0	0	2	252	273	364	637	112	293	21	3	279	71	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2019	24	A	Lexington Legends	—	226	209	55	11	0	9	14	37	1	2	0	263	312	445	757	182	280	16	6	332	112	+3	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2019	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	188	188	188	375		250	25	0	170	-12	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	16	13	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	231	333	308	641	77	429	38	12	281	73	-0	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2021	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	303	269	75	13	1	10	29	50	4	1	1	279	358	446	804	167	310	17	10	358	132	+11	-0	—	—	+9	2.0
2022	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	348	296	80	17	0	15	46	62	1	1	0	270	370	480	850	209	290	18	13	372	143	+17	+0	—	—	+10	2.7
2022	27	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	193	166	67	13	1	4	25	24	1	2	1	404	484	566	1.051	163	453	12	13	462	212	+24	+0	—	—	+5	3.0
2023	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	235	217	61	10	1	9	13	50	1	0	0	281	325	461	786	180	323	21	6	341	119	+5	+0	+9	+6	+7	2.7
2023	28	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	58	46	14	2	0	5	11	9	1	0	0	304	448	674	1.122	370	281	16	19	478	224	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	28	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	60	51	13	2	1	1	7	11	2	0	0	255	367	392	759	137	308	18	12	346	123	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	368	339	92	14	0	6	23	66	2	2	0	271	321	366	687	94	319	18	6	307	93	-3	+0	+13	+7	+10	2.8
2025	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	347	319	80	13	0	5	19	65	2	1	2	251	297	339	636	88	301	19	5	282	74	-10	-1	+9	+7	+10	1.6
2025	30	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	49	40	10	4	0	0	7	7	1	0	0	250	375	350	725	100	294	14	14	330	111	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	950	875	233	37	1	20	55	181	5	3	2	266	313	379	693	113	313	19	6	306	93	-8	-0	+31	+20	+27	7.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.1
#2Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	/162	664	12	1	263	298	374	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#3Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	7	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
	/162	664	19	7	254	303	396	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Brayan Peñalast yr '15 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	7	1,805	21	6	262	303	355	+19	+37	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	8	2	262	303	355	+7.0	+13.6	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,002	39	7	251	304	360	+36	+48	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	13	2	251	304	360	+11.9	+15.8	2.0	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Freddy Fermin (OGILVIE)	31	50	40	50	45	205/284/312	107	240	6	1	20%	9%	65	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dave Berg 2002 · MLB	31	50→57	43→45	46→40	51	241/309/357	116	283	9	5	18%	8%	89	+0.9	253/305/370	117	292	10	3	16%	6%	90	+1.0	258/312/343	86	305	7	1	17%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Ramón Vázquez 2008 · MLB	31	45→55	44→45	49→50	51	220/292/338	119	268	11	6	22%	9%	76	+0.1	242/319/352	110	300	9	4	21%	10%	92	+1.2	247/326/340	93	308	6	1	20%	10%	84	+0.3
✕Phil Gosselin 2020 · MLB	31	47→57	44→45	43→45	47	230/291/349	119	286	11	4	23%	8%	79	+0.3	246/304/371	125	309	13	6	23%	7%	90	+1.0	248/301/361	114	314	12	6	24%	6%	83	+0.2
✕Kevan Smith 2019 · MLB	31	53→55	43→50	47→40	45	257/304/363	106	289	11	3	16%	5%	88	+0.9	243/308/365	122	290	12	6	20%	7%	91	+1.1	224/295/332	107	276	10	4	21%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	31	47	42→45	48→30	56	227/310/340	113	262	9	7	16%	10%	85	+0.7	251/302/380	129	263	14	5	11%	6%	92	+1.2	250/296/372	122	256	15	2	9%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Royce Huffman 2008 · AAA	31	48→52	41→45	46→45	52	229/305/331	102	274	8	7	19%	9%	80	+0.4	232/298/337	105	293	9	7	22%	7%	79	+0.3	235/300/337	102	300	9	5	23%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Taylor Davis 2021 · MLB	31	45→54	41→45	44→40	49	221/280/313	91	262	10	5	20%	7%	65	-0.7	223/279/303	80	267	7	6	18%	7%	61	-1.0	220/276/266	46	264	3	0	17%	7%	49	-0.5
✕Kevin Plawecki 2023 · MLB	32	51→56	41→45	47→30	50	244/309/343	99	283	8	4	17%	7%	85	+0.7	223/286/334	111	272	11	3	21%	7%	72	-0.2	211/272/313	102	259	11	0	22%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Gordon Beckham 2018 · MLB	31	44→54	45→50	45	46	221/278/340	119	256	13	6	19%	6%	72	-0.2	241/300/381	140	286	14	8	20%	7%	91	+1.1	248/311/395	147	294	14	8	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Rubén Tejada 2021 · AAA	31	48→58	42→40	46→50	45	232/291/334	102	282	9	8	21%	6%	75	-0.0	221/286/297	76	287	6	7	24%	7%	63	-0.8	208/280/235	26	278	1	2	23%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Carlos Maldonado 2010 · MLB	31	44→50	44→40	44→40	47	221/276/332	111	260	12	5	20%	7%	68	-0.5	205/268/307	102	269	10	6	26%	7%	59	-1.1	184/258/278	95	244	10	2	28%	9%	45	-0.6
✕Erick Almonte 2009 · AAA	31	49→48	43→40	44→45	51	240/306/356	116	288	10	7	20%	9%	86	+0.8	247/301/339	92	315	7	7	22%	7%	79	+0.3	257/309/333	77	330	6	5	22%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Elias Díaz 2022 · MLB	31	44→54	49→50	46→45	51	225/288/370	145	245	17	3	17%	8%	83	+0.6	225/281/352	127	267	14	2	21%	7%	76	+0.0	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Cam Gallagher 2023 · MLB	30	45	44→45	47→30	46	223/278/342	119	280	11	4	24%	7%	72	-0.2	197/244/298	101	268	9	7	29%	5%	45	-2.1	125/154/166	42	183	0	0	31%	3%	-30	-1.8
✕Jamie Ritchie 2023 · AAA	30	49→52	39→40	44→45	52	234/312/320	86	289	6	4	20%	9%	80	+0.4	221/300/305	84	287	7	8	23%	10%	72	-0.2	202/301/239	37	270	3	5	23%	12%	53	-0.5
✕Diory Hernandez 2015 · AAA	31	45→55	46→45	44→50	48	226/281/350	124	253	14	8	17%	6%	75	-0.0	246/296/371	125	272	14	8	15%	6%	86	+0.8	250/298/379	129	273	15	6	15%	5%	87	+0.4
✕Paul Leon 2019 · AAA	31	47→55	43→45	47→45	44	229/280/342	113	279	11	7	22%	6%	72	-0.2	244/279/355	111	294	12	6	21%	4%	75	-0.0	257/285/351	94	307	11	1	20%	3%	72	-0.1
✕Adeiny Hechavarría 2019 · MLB	30	50→60	43→50	50	45	244/284/352	109	279	11	6	17%	5%	76	+0.1	246/296/380	134	290	14	8	20%	6%	89	+0.9	232/281/395	164	271	19	6	22%	5%	86	+0.3
✕Nevin Ashley 2015 · AAA	30	44→51	43→45	48→45	45	217/281/330	113	277	10	6	24%	7%	70	-0.3	225/289/342	117	295	12	4	27%	7%	76	+0.1	222/289/333	110	292	13	1	27%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Wilmer Difo 2023 · MLB	31	47→54	43→45	47→55	46	233/279/343	110	276	11	7	20%	6%	72	-0.2	217/280/321	104	278	10	19	24%	8%	67	-0.5	205/278/298	92	271	9	25	26%	8%	58	-0.7