Freddy Fermin

C San Diego Padres
Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 3.959 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202429MLBKC368.271/.321/.36662962.6
202530INTLLeones del Ca…49.250/.375/.35000110—
202530MLBSD347.251/.297/.33951781.5
202631MLBSD265.203/.275/.31541670.2
2027PROJ32MLBSD214.229/.290/.33441790.6
2028PROJ82% MLB33MLBSD136.221/.281/.3172072-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.959First FA2030
2027Arb-1$1M2028Arb-2$1M2029Ext$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed50
Avg EV40
Bat Spd35
xwOBA21
Barrel%15
Form.216/.280/.324 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .233/.291/.340
CompsKevin Plawecki (age 32) · Kevan Smith (age 32) · Austin Wynns (age 32)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8079vR 75
AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .290 / .334
PA214
HR4
K%20
BB%7
BABIP272
ISO108
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +2.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.60+0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.60.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
240.230
POWER40
Barrel%
153.7
Avg EV
4088.3
Bat Spd
3569.7
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
5027.5
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%25%▼▼34% over 32 PA (60d) · proj 20%
BB%7%▲9% over 32 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.108·.111 over 27 AB (60d) · proj .107
BABIP.280·.353 over 17 BIP (60d) · proj .278
SLASH.216/.280/.324▼proj .233/.291/.340
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 758 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
230
528
—
wRC+
81
83
—
wOBA
287
290
—
ISO
077
092
▶▶R
BABIP
308
298
◀L
K%
17.8%
18.8%
◀L
BB%
6.1%
6.1%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.959 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$1M+0.6$2M+$1M
2028Arb-2$1M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $1M $2M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201621 ROKDSL Royals — 203172 47900 21233 12 273362326688 52303 1110 309 29 — — — — — —
201722 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars — 201163 46521 31214 02 282409356765 74312 1015 352 63 — — — — — —
201823 ROKBurlington Royals — 206177 441012 25172 21 249348350698 102264 812 318 43 — — — — — —
201924 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 112107 27303 3230 02 252273364637 112293 213 279 33 — — — — — —
201924 ALexington Legends — 226209 551109 14371 20 263312445757 182280 166 332 53 — — — — — —
201924 INTLSalt River Rafters — 1616 3000 040 00 188188188375 250 250 170 1 — — — — — —
202126 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 1613 3100 260 00 231333308641 77429 3812 281 44 — — — — — —
202126 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 303269 7513110 29504 11 279358446804 167310 1710 358 82 — — — — — —
202227 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 348296 8017015 46621 10 270370480850 209290 1813 372 80 — — — — — —
202227 INTLLeones del Caracas — 193166 671314 25241 21 4044845661.051 163453 1213 462 199 — — — — — —
202328 MLBKansas City Royals — 235217 611019 13501 00 281325461786 180323 216 341 122 +6 +0 +9 +6 +5 2.7
202328 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 5846 14205 1191 00 3044486741.122 370281 1619 478 140 — — — — — —
202328 INTLLeones del Caracas — 6051 13211 7112 00 255367392759 137308 1812 346 120 — — — — — —
202429 MLBKansas City Royals — 368339 921406 23662 20 271321366687 94319 186 307 96 -2 +0 +13 +7 +8 2.6
202530 MLBSan Diego Padres — 347319 801305 19652 12 251297339636 88301 195 282 78 -9 -1 +9 +7 +8 1.5
202530 INTLLeones del Caracas — 4940 10400 771 00 250375350725 100294 1414 330 110 — — — — — —
202631 MLBSan Diego Padres — 265232 471404 21563 11 203275315590 112246 218 262 67 -11 -0 +2 +5 +6 0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 12151107 28051124 762378 43 253305366671 113299 206 297 87 -19 -0 +33 +25 +26 6.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201621 ROK MLEDSL Royals — 203179 33600 14283 12 184255218473 34195 147 211 29 — — — — — —
201722 ROK MLEIdaho Falls Chukars — 201176 38411 18304 02 216303267570 51247 159 261 63 — — — — — —
201823 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 206188 36712 14242 21 191255271526 80205 127 232 43 — — — — — —
201924 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 112108 21203 2290 02 194209296505 102238 262 217 33 — — — — — —
201924 A MLELexington Legends — 226214 44807 9471 20 206241341582 136227 214 246 53 — — — — — —
202126 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 1614 3100 170 00 214267286552 71380 446 233 44 — — — — — —
202126 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 303278 661018 20594 11 237298367665 129270 197 289 82 — — — — — —
202227 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 348310 6713011 32781 10 216292365656 148240 229 286 80 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 235217 6210110 13501 00 286329479808 194323 216 348 122 +6 +0 +9 +6 +5 2.7
202328 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 5850 13204 7111 00 260362540902 280248 1912 375 140 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 368340 931406 22662 20 274321368689 94319 186 310 96 -2 +0 +13 +7 +8 2.6
202530 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 347320 811405 18652 12 253297344641 91301 195 284 78 -9 -1 +9 +7 +8 1.5
202631 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 265234 481504 21563 11 205279321600 115246 218 267 67 -11 -0 +2 +5 +6 0.2
201621 ROK MLEDSL Royals — 203179 33600 14283 12 184255218473 34210 147 211 29 — — — — — —
201621 ROK RAWDSL Royals — 203172 47900 21233 12 273362326688 52303 1110 309 29 — — — — — —
201722 ROK MLEIdaho Falls Chukars — 201176 38411 18304 02 216303267570 51250 159 261 63 — — — — — —
201722 ROK RAWIdaho Falls Chukars — 201163 46521 31214 02 282409356765 74312 1015 352 63 — — — — — —
201823 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 206188 36712 14242 21 191255271526 80209 127 232 43 — — — — — —
201823 ROK RAWBurlington Royals — 206177 441012 25172 21 249348350698 102264 812 318 43 — — — — — —
201924 A MLE3 teams — 354338 6911010 11791 22 204231325557 121235 223 236 46 — — — — — —
201924 A RAW3 teams — 354332 8514012 17641 22 256294407701 151283 185 308 46 — — — — — —
202126 AA MLE2 teams — 319292 691118 21664 11 236297363660 127279 217 286 80 — — — — — —
202126 AA RAW2 teams — 319282 7814110 31564 11 277356440796 163313 1810 354 80 — — — — — —
202227 AAA MLE2 teams — 541484 10320017 491212 31 213288360647 147244 229 286 80 — — — — — —
202227 AAA RAW2 teams — 541462 14730119 71862 31 318411511922 193353 1613 404 80 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLE3 teams — 353321 8914116 24734 00 277335477812 199311 217 354 125 +11 +0 +9 +6 +8 3.4
202328 MLB RAW3 teams — 353314 8814215 31704 00 280352481833 201315 209 364 125 +11 +0 +9 +6 +8 3.4
202429 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 368340 931406 22662 20 274321368689 94321 186 310 96 -2 +0 +13 +7 +8 2.6
202429 MLB RAWKansas City Royals — 368339 921406 23662 20 271321366687 94319 186 307 96 -2 +0 +13 +7 +8 2.6
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 396364 931606 21743 12 255302349650 93305 195 284 78 -10 -1 +9 +7 +9 1.4
202530 MLB RAW2 teams — 396359 901705 26723 12 251307340647 89300 187 288 78 -10 -1 +9 +7 +9 1.4
202631 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 265234 481504 21563 11 205279321600 115249 218 267 67 -11 -0 +2 +5 +6 0.2
202631 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 265232 471404 21563 11 203275315590 112246 218 262 67 -11 -0 +2 +5 +6 0.2
201621 ROK MLEDSL Royals — 203184 33600 14283 12 179255212467 33195 147 211 29 — — — — — —
201722 ROK MLEIdaho Falls Chukars — 201177 38411 18304 02 215303266569 51247 159 261 63 — — — — — —
201823 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 206188 36712 14242 21 191255271526 80205 127 232 43 — — — — — —
201924 A MLE3 teams — 354339 6911010 11791 22 204231324556 121231 223 236 46 — — — — — —
202126 AA MLE2 teams — 319291 691118 21664 11 237297364661 127276 217 286 80 — — — — — —
202227 AAA MLE2 teams — 541485 10320017 491212 31 212288359647 146240 229 286 80 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLE3 teams — 353322 8914116 24734 00 276335475810 199308 217 354 125 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 368341 931406 22662 20 273321367688 94319 186 310 96 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 396369 931606 21743 12 252302344646 92301 195 284 78 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 265239 481504 21563 11 201279314593 113246 218 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202429 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 368341 931406 22662 20 273321367688 94319 186 310 96 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 396369 931606 21743 12 252302344646 92301 195 284 78 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 265239 481504 21563 11 201279314593 113246 218 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202732 MLB MLESD 100% 325296 681505 23653 21 233293340634 107278 207 285 79 -8 +0 +4 +6 +7 0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202732 MLB CTXSD 100% 214195 45904 15422 10 229290334624 105272 207 281 79 -5 +0 +2 +4 +5 0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202833 MLB MLESD 82% 166153 33702 11341 00 225284323607 98272 207 274 72 -6 +0 -2 +3 +4 -0.1
202833 MLB CTXSD 82% 136125 28602 9281 00 221281317598 96266 217 270 72 -5 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13511232 30857126 852659 43 250303361664 111297 206 294 75 -23 -0 +31 +27 +29 6.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 14827013 411274 21 250302361663 111295 206 294 75 -11 -0 +15 +13 +14 3.1
Career— MLE — 35863264 749135475 24169331 1412 229289342631 113267 197 279 75 -30 -0 +33 +31 +35 7.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650592 13624114 441266 32 230290345635 115266 197 279 75 -12 -0 +14 +13 +14 2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 58 PAwOBA .465 → .375 (−90)K% 15.5% → 18.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.52%÷0.995×1.200——18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.97%÷1.030×0.690—×0.99212.61%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.940—×0.9921.61%
Singles /BIP18.92%÷0.978×0.930—×0.99217.85%
Doubles /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9924.45%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP13.51%÷0.942×0.700—×0.9929.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .465 → .375; ISO .370 → .290; BABIP .281 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 348 PAwOBA .367 → .286 (−81)K% 17.8% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.82%÷0.957×1.200——22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.22%÷1.001×0.690—×1.0039.14%
HBP% /PA0.29%—×0.940—×1.0030.27%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.016×0.930×0.950×1.00317.90%
Doubles /BIP7.26%÷1.041×0.830×0.950×1.0035.52%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP6.41%÷0.984×0.700—×1.0034.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .367 → .286; ISO .209 → .154; BABIP .290 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 303 PAwOBA .350 → .289 (−61)K% 16.5% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.50%÷1.035×1.220——19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.57%÷0.988×0.690—×0.9886.60%
HBP% /PA1.32%—×0.850—×0.9881.11%
Singles /BIP23.29%÷0.980×0.940×0.967×0.98821.33%
Doubles /BIP5.94%÷1.117×0.870×0.967×0.9884.42%
Triples /BIP0.46%÷1.150×0.920×0.967×0.9880.35%
Home runs /BIP4.57%÷0.957×0.780—×0.9883.68%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .350 → .289; ISO .167 → .132; BABIP .310 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 16 PAwOBA .274 → .233 (−41)K% 37.5% → 45.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.50%÷0.985×1.200——45.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.990×0.690—×1.0188.86%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷1.056×0.930—×1.01825.61%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷0.978×0.830—×1.01812.34%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.936×0.920—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.027×0.700—×1.0180.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .274 → .233; ISO .077 → .069; BABIP .429 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALexington Legends · 226 PAwOBA .324 → .246 (−78)K% 16.4% → 20.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.37%÷1.066×1.340——20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.19%÷1.047×0.660—×0.9803.83%
HBP% /PA0.44%—×0.770—×0.9800.33%
Singles /BIP20.35%÷1.015×0.920×0.950×0.98017.16%
Doubles /BIP6.40%÷1.020×0.820×0.950×0.9804.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.013×0.940×0.950×0.9800.00%
Home runs /BIP5.23%÷1.095×0.820—×0.9803.84%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 103, K 113, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .324 → .246; ISO .182 → .133; BABIP .280 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 112 PAwOBA .273 → .217 (−56)K% 20.5% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.54%÷0.962×1.220——26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.68%÷1.001×0.700—×1.0121.90%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.083×0.920×0.950×1.01220.42%
Doubles /BIP3.57%÷0.986×0.840×0.950×1.0122.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.091×0.940×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.57%÷0.901×0.800—×1.0123.21%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .273 → .217; ISO .112 → .095; BABIP .293 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKBurlington Royals · 206 PAwOBA .308 → .232 (−76)K% 8.3% → 11.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.25%÷1.000×1.420——11.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.17%÷1.000×0.640—×0.9656.90%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.740—×0.9650.69%
Singles /BIP19.38%÷1.000×0.840×0.990×0.96515.55%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.000×0.740×0.990×0.9654.42%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.000×0.740×0.990×0.9650.44%
Home runs /BIP1.25%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9650.97%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .308 → .232; ISO .102 → .077; BABIP .264 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 201 PAwOBA .349 → .261 (−88)K% 10.4% → 15.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.45%÷1.000×1.440——15.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.42%÷1.000×0.610—×0.9759.17%
HBP% /PA1.99%—×0.720—×0.9751.40%
Singles /BIP26.76%÷1.000×0.820×1.010×0.97521.62%
Doubles /BIP3.52%÷1.000×0.720×1.010×0.9752.50%
Triples /BIP1.41%÷1.000×0.720×1.010×0.9751.00%
Home runs /BIP0.70%÷1.000×0.750—×0.9750.51%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .349 → .261; ISO .074 → .055; BABIP .312 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .