Freddy Fermin — OGILVIE

Freddy FerminC San Diego Padres

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 2.959S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.8 · 2026

wRC+†vL 7480vR 82

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .299 / .355

PA354

HR7

K%19

BB%6

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

EYE

44↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+1.8	$14M	+$12M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.0	$8M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-4	$2M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$26M	+$19M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	DSL Royals	203	181	39	7	0	0	12	33	3	1	2	.215	.276	.254	.530	.039	.253	16	6	.239	41	-14	-1	+0	+4	+6	-0.5
2017	22	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	201	175	40	4	2	1	19	30	4	0	2	.229	.318	.291	.610	.063	.265	15	9	.267	63	-9	-1	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2018	23	ROK	Burlington Royals	206	187	38	8	1	2	15	24	2	2	1	.203	.270	.289	.558	.086	.222	12	7	.240	42	-14	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.4
2019	24	A	3 teams	354	338	68	11	0	11	11	80	1	2	2	.201	.229	.331	.560	.130	.229	23	3	.236	39	-24	-0	+0	+6	+10	-0.9
2021	26	AA	2 teams	319	291	67	10	1	9	22	71	4	1	1	.230	.293	.364	.658	.134	.274	22	7	.289	79	-7	-0	+0	+6	+9	0.7
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	541	484	107	21	0	20	49	119	2	3	1	.221	.295	.388	.684	.167	.248	22	9	.300	88	-7	+0	+1	+10	+15	1.9
2023	28	MLB	3 teams	353	320	88	14	1	16	25	73	4	0	0	.275	.335	.475	.810	.200	.308	21	7	.344	122	+9	+0	+9	+6	+10	3.4
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	368	339	90	13	0	6	23	66	2	2	0	.265	.316	.357	.673	.091	.311	18	6	.298	86	-6	+0	+12	+7	+10	2.5
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	396	363	91	16	0	5	22	74	3	1	2	.251	.299	.336	.635	.085	.302	19	6	.275	69	-14	-1	+9	+7	+11	1.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	50	40	7	3	0	0	7	11	2	0	0	.175	.327	.250	.577	.075	.233	22	14	.273	67	-2	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.3
ROS	31	MLB	SD	304	276	66	12	0	5	22	59	3	2	0	.239	.302	.337	.639	.098	.286	19	7	.293	83	-6	+0	+6	+5	+9	1.5
TOT	31	MLB	SD	354	316	73	15	0	5	29	70	5	2	0	.231	.306	.326	.632	.095	.279	20	8	.290	80	-8	+0	+9	+6	+10	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB	SD	315	287	67	12	0	5	22	55	3	0	0	.233	.295	.328	.622	.094	.274	17	7	.288	79	-8	+0	+3	+6	+9	1.0
2028	33	MLB	SD	278	254	59	11	0	4	19	50	3	0	0	.232	.293	.323	.616	.091	.273	18	7	.283	75	-8	+0	+1	+5	+8	0.6
2029	34	MLB	SD	231	211	48	9	0	3	16	44	2	0	0	.227	.288	.313	.601	.085	.271	19	7	.276	70	-8	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.2
2030	35	MLB	SD	178	162	36	6	0	2	12	35	2	0	0	.222	.284	.296	.580	.074	.269	20	7	.269	64	-7	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4247	3868	904	154	5	89	289	813	38	14	11	.234	.293	.345	.639	.111	.272	19	7	.283	74	-123	-2	+39	+76	+120	11.3
/ 162G	—			650	592	139	24	1	14	44	124	6	2	2	.235	.294	.350	.644	.115	.272	19	7	.283	74	-19	-0	+6	+12	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	DSL Royals	203	172	47	9	0	0	21	23	3	1	2	.273	.362	.326	.688	.052	.303	11	10	.309	95	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2017	22	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	201	163	46	5	2	1	31	21	4	0	2	.282	.409	.356	.765	.074	.312	10	15	.352	127	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.1
2018	23	ROK	Burlington Royals	206	177	44	10	1	2	25	17	2	2	1	.249	.348	.350	.698	.102	.264	8	12	.318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+6	0.6
2019	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	112	107	27	3	0	3	3	23	0	0	2	.252	.273	.364	.637	.112	.293	21	3	.279	71	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2019	24	A	Lexington Legends	226	209	55	11	0	9	14	37	1	2	0	.263	.312	.445	.757	.182	.280	16	6	.332	112	+3	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2019	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	.188	.188	.188	.375	.000	.250	25	0	.170	-12	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	16	13	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	.231	.333	.308	.641	.077	.429	38	12	.281	73	-0	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2021	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	303	269	75	13	1	10	29	50	4	1	1	.279	.358	.446	.804	.167	.310	17	10	.358	132	+11	-0	—	—	+9	2.0
2022	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	348	296	80	17	0	15	46	62	1	1	0	.270	.370	.480	.850	.209	.290	18	13	.372	143	+17	+0	—	—	+10	2.7
2022	27	INTL	Leones del Caracas	193	166	67	13	1	4	25	24	1	2	1	.404	.484	.566	1.051	.163	.453	12	13	.462	212	+24	+0	—	—	+5	3.0
2023	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	235	217	61	10	1	9	13	50	1	0	0	.281	.325	.461	.786	.180	.323	21	6	.341	119	+5	+0	+9	+6	+7	2.7
2023	28	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	58	46	14	2	0	5	11	9	1	0	0	.304	.448	.674	1.122	.370	.281	16	19	.478	224	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	28	INTL	Leones del Caracas	60	51	13	2	1	1	7	11	2	0	0	.255	.367	.392	.759	.137	.308	18	12	.346	123	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	368	339	92	14	0	6	23	66	2	2	0	.271	.321	.366	.687	.094	.319	18	6	.307	93	-3	+0	+12	+7	+10	2.8
2025	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	347	319	80	13	0	5	19	65	2	1	2	.251	.297	.339	.636	.088	.301	19	5	.282	74	-10	-1	+9	+7	+10	1.6
2025	30	INTL	Leones del Caracas	49	40	10	4	0	0	7	7	1	0	0	.250	.375	.350	.725	.100	.294	14	14	.330	111	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			950	875	233	37	1	20	55	181	5	3	2	.266	.313	.379	.693	.113	.313	19	6	.306	93	-8	-0	+31	+20	+27	7.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Freddy Fermin (OGILVIE)	31	50	40	50	45	.239/.301/.344	.105	.276	6	2	17%	7%	83	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	45→52	45	48→30	46	.224/.281/.336	.112	.265	13	5	21%	7%	72	-0.2	.243/.308/.357	.114	.303	12	5	23%	8%	89	+0.9	.244/.309/.343	.100	.312	10	2	24%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Gerald Laird 2011 · MLB	31	47	42→50	45→50	50	.226/.292/.333	.107	.259	9	6	17%	7%	76	+0.0	.237/.304/.347	.110	.273	9	6	16%	8%	84	+0.6	.263/.333/.361	.098	.304	5	3	14%	8%	94	+0.3
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	54	44→50	49→40	47	.262/.314/.378	.116	.296	12	5	16%	6%	96	+1.5	.234/.305/.355	.121	.292	12	7	23%	8%	87	+0.8	.163/.242/.193	.030	.240	0	0	29%	9%	2	-0.9
✕Royce Huffman 2008 · AAA	31	48→52	41→45	46→45	52	.231/.306/.336	.105	.276	8	7	19%	9%	82	+0.5	.232/.298/.337	.105	.293	9	6	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.235/.300/.337	.102	.300	9	5	23%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Ronny Paulino 2012 · MLB	31	52→62	42→50	48→40	50	.251/.304/.356	.105	.289	9	3	17%	7%	85	+0.7	.244/.290/.339	.095	.298	8	4	20%	6%	75	-0.0	.259/.306/.369	.110	.299	13	3	18%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Kevin Plawecki 2023 · MLB	32	53→57	42→45	48→30	50	.253/.317/.358	.105	.293	9	5	17%	7%	92	+1.2	.229/.291/.341	.112	.277	11	3	21%	7%	77	+0.1	.218/.279/.326	.109	.263	11	0	21%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Israel Nunez 2017 · AAA	31	53	41→40	47→40	42	.256/.299/.353	.097	.306	8	6	19%	4%	82	+0.5	.241/.279/.350	.109	.284	12	7	19%	4%	73	-0.1	.265/.292/.326	.061	.308	7	0	16%	1%	69	-0.1
✕Rob Johnson 2012 · MLB	30	44→52	42→45	48→50	50	.211/.291/.323	.111	.269	9	6	24%	9%	72	-0.2	.208/.267/.322	.114	.253	12	6	22%	7%	62	-0.9	.194/.244/.297	.104	.228	11	3	20%	6%	41	-1.0
✕Erick Almonte 2009 · AAA	31	50→48	43→40	44→45	51	.242/.308/.356	.114	.291	10	7	20%	9%	88	+0.9	.248/.302/.340	.092	.316	7	7	22%	7%	80	+0.4	.257/.308/.335	.078	.331	5	5	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Dixon Machado 2023 · MLB	31	51→55	39→45	48→55	49	.244/.306/.332	.088	.287	7	10	17%	7%	80	+0.4	.222/.302/.313	.091	.269	9	7	20%	9%	75	-0.0	.201/.296/.278	.077	.247	8	4	20%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	31	47	42→45	48→30	57	.227/.313/.335	.109	.259	8	6	16%	10%	85	+0.7	.251/.303/.379	.128	.264	14	5	11%	6%	92	+1.2	.250/.296/.372	.122	.256	15	2	9%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Dave Berg 2002 · MLB	31	50→57	43→45	47→40	51	.242/.311/.357	.116	.284	9	6	18%	8%	89	+1.0	.253/.306/.369	.116	.292	10	3	16%	6%	90	+1.0	.258/.312/.344	.086	.305	7	1	17%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	51→50	47→50	49→45	46	.251/.310/.385	.134	.318	15	5	25%	8%	96	+1.5	.225/.283/.360	.135	.285	15	11	26%	7%	79	+0.3	.189/.246/.307	.118	.234	15	13	26%	7%	45	-0.9
✕Paul Leon 2019 · AAA	31	46→56	44→45	47→45	44	.230/.280/.345	.116	.279	11	8	22%	6%	73	-0.1	.241/.276/.354	.113	.291	13	6	22%	4%	73	-0.1	.250/.278/.347	.097	.300	12	1	21%	3%	69	-0.3
✕José Yépez 2013 · AAA	32	52	41→40	48→30	48	.249/.318/.352	.104	.294	7	6	17%	7%	92	+1.2	.215/.268/.291	.076	.254	5	5	17%	5%	53	-1.5	.182/.215/.216	.034	.216	1	1	16%	3%	9	-1.3
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→49	47→50	49→40	42	.236/.285/.371	.136	.302	15	5	27%	6%	82	+0.5	.209/.262/.340	.131	.279	15	6	30%	7%	64	-0.8	.166/.219/.275	.108	.223	15	2	32%	6%	28	-1.3
✕Miguel Cairo 2005 · MLB	31	53→58	44→45	52→55	47	.257/.313/.380	.123	.281	10	12	13%	5%	96	+1.5	.246/.298/.341	.095	.272	6	20	11%	6%	79	+0.3	.260/.310/.370	.111	.287	11	10	14%	5%	89	+0.5
✕Humberto Sosa 2017 · AAA	31	46→50	43→50	46→45	43	.229/.275/.331	.102	.284	12	5	24%	6%	67	-0.5	.223/.268/.349	.126	.276	15	6	24%	5%	69	-0.4	.220/.265/.385	.165	.256	21	1	23%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Gary Bennett 2003 · MLB	31	52	43→40	41→40	50	.251/.313/.362	.111	.284	10	4	16%	7%	92	+1.2	.237/.300/.329	.092	.272	7	5	15%	7%	77	+0.1	.218/.289/.304	.085	.251	7	1	15%	8%	58	-0.4
✕Mike Matheny 2002 · MLB	31	48→54	42→45	41→30	48	.235/.293/.335	.101	.278	10	2	19%	7%	76	+0.1	.238/.301/.335	.097	.278	9	3	17%	8%	79	+0.3	.242/.300/.364	.122	.283	11	0	18%	7%	72	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)