Alexis Díaz — OGILVIE

Alexis Díaz P Round Rock Express

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 224 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.83

FIP5.19

K%22.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

FB-0.6 (60%)

SL-6.2 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	9	0	13	56	11	5	1	0%	1.4	13.4%	11.2%	2.2%	2.5%	1.38	4.76	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	9	0	13	56	11	5	1	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	1.8%	1.38	3.56	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	13	4	31	139	40	13	2	31%	2.4	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	2.0%	4.94	4.03	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	13	4	31	139	40	13	2	31%	2.4	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	1.4%	4.94	2.62	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	9	54	232	67	18	6	82%	4.9	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.6%	3.02	4.66	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	9	54	232	67	18	6	82%	4.9	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	2.6%	3.02	3.06	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	59	270	77	29	4	19%	2.2	21.1%	12.8%	8.4%	2.1%	5.19	4.09	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	5	59	270	77	29	4	19%	2.2	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	1.5%	5.19	2.85	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	35	0	42	180	70	18	2	0%	1.2	31.5%	11.0%	20.5%	1.4%	3.83	2.60	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	35	0	42	180	70	18	2	0%	1.2	38.9%	10.0%	28.9%	1.1%	3.83	1.68	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	59	0	64	255	83	30	5	0%	1.1	32.5%	11.8%	20.8%	1.8%	1.84	2.84	+1.3
2022	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	59	0	64	255	83	30	5	0%	1.1	32.5%	11.8%	20.8%	2.0%	1.84	2.93	+1.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	67	286	86	36	4	0%	0.9	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	1.3%	3.07	2.87	+1.4
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	67	286	86	36	4	0%	0.9	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	1.3%	3.07	2.87	+1.4
2023	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	71	0	67	286	86	36	4	0%	0.9	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	1.4%	3.07	2.92	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.01	+0.4
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.01	+0.4
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	56	242	55	30	6	0%	0.9	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.5%	3.99	4.13	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.4%	5.7%	5.1%	6.65	6.02	-0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.4%	5.7%	5.1%	6.65	6.02	-0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	43	208	47	32	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	15.4%	7.2%	4.8%	6.65	6.15	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			208	0	205	868	241	108	21	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.4%	15.3%	2.4%	3.38	3.66	+2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	41	0	41	185	52	34	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	16.5%	6.8%	1.2%	2.83	3.88	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	41	0	41	185	52	34	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	16.5%	6.8%	1.2%	2.83	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	TEX	41	0	41	185	52	34	2	0%	1.0	28.1%	18.4%	9.7%	1.1%	2.83	3.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	48	0	51	214	47	31	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.3%	7.8%	3.6%	5.17	5.40	-0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	45	0	47	200	43	29	8	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	3.8%	5.45	5.63	-0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	185	38	28	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.1%	5.5%	4.1%	5.71	5.89	-0.6
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	18	0	19	80	18	12	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.3%	7.8%	3.6%	5.17	5.40	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	24	16	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	3.8%	5.45	5.63	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	29	0	30	127	26	19	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.1%	5.5%	4.1%	5.71	5.89	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		279	0	279	1182	308	154	33	0%	1.0	26.0%	13.1%	13.0%	2.8%	3.94	4.09	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	846	221	110	24	0%	1.0	26.0%	13.1%	13.0%	2.8%	3.94	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		371	18	471	2053	503	256	47	5%	1.3	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.88	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	8	200	872	214	109	20	5%	1.3	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.88	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.9%	14.0%	3.4%	—	5.63	21.4%	6.7%	142	+0.44	—	—	—
Neftalí Feliz R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	18.9%	10.7%	5.0%	.240	4.74	16.2%	2.5%	92	-0.85	3.54	291	73
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Hunter Strickland R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	18.4%	9.5%	2.7%	.271	4.48	22.0%	13.3%	83	+0.26	2.30	523	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Jake Cousins R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	29	SU	4.46	26.3%	11.4%	3.9%	.379	3.42	34.2%	21.9%	38	-1.04	1.11	160	71
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	70
Brandon Maurer R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	19.7%	13.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	234	69
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	69
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	69
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	68
Jose Cuas R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	24.3%	12.0%	2.9%	.309	3.81	21.1%	9.0%	127	-0.32	2.71	340	68
Wily Peralta R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	22.7%	13.7%	2.4%	.310	4.89	15.3%	5.5%	154	+0.65	3.98	748	68
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	68
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	68
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	67
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	67
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	67
Art Warren R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	29	SU	4.51	24.2%	12.7%	3.4%	.316	6.82	17.6%	3.1%	27	+2.31	1.40	322	67
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	21.8%	14.5%	1.43	5.26
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15