Alexis Díaz
P
Round Rock Express
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 224 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA4.87
FIP5.26
K%23.1%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.384
FB-0.6 (60%)
SL-6.2 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Reds | 9 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.4% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.38 | 4.76 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Reds | 9 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 1.38 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Reds | 13 | 4 | 31 | 139 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 31% | 2.4 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 4.94 | 4.03 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Reds | 13 | 4 | 31 | 139 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 31% | 2.4 | 28.8% | 9.4% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 4.94 | 2.62 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 9 | 54 | 232 | 67 | 18 | 6 | 82% | 4.9 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 3.02 | 4.66 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 9 | 54 | 232 | 67 | 18 | 6 | 82% | 4.9 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 2.6% | 3.02 | 3.06 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 5 | 59 | 270 | 77 | 29 | 4 | 19% | 2.2 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.19 | 4.15 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 5 | 59 | 270 | 77 | 29 | 4 | 19% | 2.2 | 28.5% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 5.19 | 2.85 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 35 | 0 | 42 | 180 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.5% | 11.0% | 20.5% | 1.5% | 3.83 | 2.65 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 35 | 0 | 42 | 180 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.9% | 10.0% | 28.9% | 1.1% | 3.83 | 1.68 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 59 | 0 | 64 | 255 | 83 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.5% | 11.8% | 20.8% | 1.9% | 1.84 | 2.86 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 59 | 0 | 64 | 255 | 83 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.5% | 11.8% | 20.8% | 2.0% | 1.84 | 2.93 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 71 | 0 | 67 | 286 | 86 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.1% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 1.3% | 3.07 | 2.88 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 71 | 0 | 67 | 286 | 86 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.1% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 1.4% | 3.07 | 2.92 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 55 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 55 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 43 | 208 | 47 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 15.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.65 | 6.19 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 43 | 208 | 47 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.65 | 6.15 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 26 | 0 | 25 | 113 | 31 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.1% | 21.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 79 | 341 | 84 | 56 | 9 | — | — | 24.5% | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 5 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 23.1% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 48 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 43 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.51 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 39 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 15.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.51 | 5.70 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 15.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 0 | 285 | 1205 | 314 | 159 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.13 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 221 | 112 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 356 | 18 | 454 | 1981 | 489 | 252 | 47 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.94 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 8 | 200 | 872 | 215 | 111 | 21 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexis Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 3.4% | — | 5.70 | 21.7% | 6.4% | 142 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.56 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | .240 | 4.69 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 92 | -0.87 | 3.57 | 291 | 69 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 69 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 68 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 68 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 68 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 68 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.85 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 4.4% | .379 | 3.41 | 34.2% | 21.9% | 38 | -1.44 | 1.11 | 160 | 68 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.60 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.37 | 2.30 | 523 | 67 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 67 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.38 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .241 | 3.90 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 55 | -1.48 | 3.36 | 311 | 67 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 67 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 66 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.37 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 163 | 66 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 66 |
| Jacob Barnes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .303 | 3.55 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 101 | -1.50 | 1.88 | 551 | 66 |
| Art Warren R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .316 | 6.90 | 18.6% | 1.7% | 27 | +2.34 | 1.38 | 322 | 66 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 66 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 22.1% | 15.1% | 1.45 | 5.32 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |