Drew Ellis

3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAROOKIEExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	MLBPHI	29	.217/.379/.478	2	0	137	0.3
2024	28	AAALAA	134	.243/.373/.414	5	2	71	—	.186/.284/.314
2025	29	AAASF	186	.222/.335/.437	10	0	59	—	.169/.254/.313
2025	29	AASF	61	.137/.279/.235	1	0	11	—	.130/.230/.222
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBSF	25	.204/.290/.354	1	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBSF	91	.201/.285/.344	3	1	82	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Chase%82

BB%69

Max EV50

Whiff%38

K%37

Z-Con%25

CompsValentino Pascucci (age 31) · Donnie Murphy (age 31) · Jacob Wilson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .290 / .354

PA25

HR1

K%28

BB%8

BABIP251

ISO174

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3712.5%

xAVG

100.154

POWER60

Barrel%

315.8

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

5571.8

EYE55

Chase%

8624.7%

SPEED45

Sprint

4327.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	502	443	109	34	1	15	52	98	5	2	6	246	332	429	761	183	283	20	10	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	60	52	12	4	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	231	333	423	756	192	294	27	12	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	83	69	9	2	0	1	10	27	4	0	0	130	277	203	480	72	195	33	12	241	42	-6	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.6
2021	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	358	296	87	29	3	20	46	87	10	1	0	294	406	615	1.021	321	344	24	13	432	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	333	41	6	223	38	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	468	385	87	27	2	19	74	117	5	6	3	226	358	455	812	229	269	25	16	359	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	217	379	478	858	261	214	24	21	381	137	+1	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	298	254	57	14	0	13	40	69	3	3	0	224	337	433	770	209	254	23	13	343	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	44	35	9	3	0	3	8	9	1	0	0	257	409	600	1.009	343	261	20	18	435	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	186	158	35	4	0	10	23	48	4	0	0	222	335	437	772	215	248	26	12	344	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	61	51	7	2	0	1	10	17	0	0	0	137	279	235	514	98	182	28	16	250	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	129	108	17	3	0	3	17	41	4	0	1	157	295	269	563	111	219	32	13	270	69	-5	-0	-5	+5	+3	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	502	458	88	24	1	13	37	128	5	2	6	192	260	334	594	142	234	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	399	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	195	279	333	612	138	245	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	83	70	9	2	0	1	9	27	4	0	0	129	265	200	465	71	195	33	11	230	42	-6	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.6
2021	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	358	308	68	21	2	15	34	105	10	1	0	221	318	448	766	227	268	29	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	333	41	6	225	38	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	468	411	75	26	2	12	48	138	5	6	3	182	276	343	619	161	237	29	10	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	217	379	478	858	261	214	24	21	371	137	+1	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	298	266	45	10	0	9	28	83	3	3	0	169	256	308	564	139	201	28	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	44	37	8	3	0	2	6	11	1	0	0	216	341	459	800	243	221	25	14	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	118	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	186	284	314	597	127	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	186	166	28	3	0	7	15	57	4	0	0	169	254	313	567	145	200	31	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	61	54	7	2	0	1	7	20	0	0	0	130	230	222	452	93	159	33	11	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	562	513	99	27	1	15	41	143	6	2	6	193	261	337	598	144	235	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	562	495	121	38	1	17	59	114	6	2	6	244	332	428	760	184	284	20	10	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	399	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	195	279	333	612	138	251	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	378	77	23	2	16	43	132	14	1	0	204	308	402	710	198	258	30	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	441	365	96	31	3	21	56	114	14	1	0	263	382	537	919	274	318	26	13	396	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	427	78	27	2	12	49	145	5	6	3	183	274	340	614	157	241	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	485	401	90	28	2	19	75	124	5	6	3	224	353	446	800	222	271	26	15	354	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	371	326	57	12	0	13	40	101	4	3	1	175	273	331	604	156	207	27	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	371	312	71	17	0	18	54	85	4	3	1	228	349	455	804	228	252	23	15	357	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	118	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	186	284	314	597	127	217	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	220	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	286	530	132	191	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	247	209	42	6	0	11	33	65	4	0	0	201	321	388	709	187	231	26	13	321	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	562	510	99	27	1	15	41	143	6	2	6	194	261	339	600	145	234	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	402	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	194	279	331	609	137	245	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	381	77	23	2	16	43	132	14	1	0	202	308	399	707	197	254	30	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	428	78	27	2	12	49	145	5	6	3	182	274	339	613	157	240	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	371	324	57	12	0	13	40	101	4	3	1	176	273	333	606	157	204	27	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	117	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	188	284	316	600	128	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	219	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	288	532	132	190	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	117	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	188	284	316	600	128	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	219	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	288	532	132	190	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SF	10%	297	263	54	9	1	10	28	79	4	5	1	209	294	368	661	158	255	27	9	297	87	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	SF	10%	25	23	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	204	290	354	644	150	251	28	8	290	87	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SF	33%	278	248	51	9	1	9	25	74	3	2	1	206	289	357	645	151	252	27	9	290	82	-6	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	SF	33%	91	82	16	3	0	3	8	24	1	1	0	201	285	344	629	143	249	26	9	284	82	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	220	190	33	6	0	6	25	65	5	1	1	174	286	300	586	126	227	30	11	276	73	-7	-0	-6	+5	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	98	18	0	18	74	192	15	3	3	175	288	303	591	128	228	30	11	276	73	-20	-1	-17	+15	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3219	2851	542	131	8	97	300	898	44	20	15	190	277	344	621	154	237	28	9	276	73	-14	+0	-9	+7	+14	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	110	26	2	20	61	181	9	4	3	191	279	347	626	156	237	28	9	276	73	-14	+0	-9	+6	+14	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Ellis (OGILVIE)	31	40	60	45	55	207/291/364	157	255	8	4	26%	9%	87	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	40→42	51→55	48→45	48	211/290/369	159	273	20	5	30%	9%	86	+0.3	208/288/370	162	288	20	3	33%	10%	86	+0.3	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41→40	55→65	47→45	41	221/283/406	185	271	23	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	203/267/337	134	257	16	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	166/234/261	95	210	12	0	27%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Jacob Wilson 2021 · AAA	31	46→48	50	46→40	48	237/300/395	158	283	18	6	23%	8%	96	+1.0	220/286/390	170	267	19	6	25%	7%	90	+0.6	195/265/376	181	225	20	0	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	48	227/295/393	167	269	18	5	23%	8%	93	+0.8	214/281/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	82	-0.0	161/216/284	123	202	11	4	26%	6%	38	-0.8
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	40→50	54→55	48→50	44	215/281/392	177	269	23	13	29%	7%	88	+0.5	208/262/364	156	264	20	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	181/231/331	150	221	21	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	42→49	52→50	47→55	51	220/299/386	166	266	19	4	25%	10%	93	+0.8	208/277/361	153	266	18	8	28%	9%	80	-0.2	185/254/326	141	236	18	8	29%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Armando Alvarez 2024 · AAA	30	45→47	51→55	49→50	45	233/281/393	160	267	19	10	21%	6%	88	+0.4	235/295/377	142	296	16	9	25%	7%	89	+0.5	229/294/358	129	294	15	6	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Mario Lisson 2015 · AAA	31	43→49	49→50	47→55	45	222/290/369	146	272	17	12	25%	7%	86	+0.3	220/284/341	121	288	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	208/273/315	108	275	12	6	28%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Jose Rojas 2024 · MLB	31	41→48	52→60	49→50	44	216/268/383	167	258	20	9	25%	6%	81	-0.1	209/274/398	189	248	24	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	195/265/395	200	224	25	11	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	41→45	53→55	47→50	42	221/269/389	168	259	21	8	24%	5%	83	+0.1	220/266/371	151	262	17	11	23%	5%	77	-0.3	213/256/362	149	251	16	10	22%	4%	71	-0.5
✕David Cook 2011 · AAA	30	42→49	50→55	47→50	47	218/287/373	155	269	18	10	26%	8%	86	+0.3	213/283/334	121	297	11	9	30%	8%	75	-0.5	201/278/309	108	289	9	6	31%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Erik Kratz 2010 · AAA	30	42→44	52→60	51→45	42	221/269/389	168	264	19	8	25%	5%	83	+0.1	223/283/381	158	265	18	5	23%	6%	86	+0.3	220/275/389	169	242	23	1	20%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Chris Young 2015 · MLB	31	42→48	53→60	49→55	50	223/294/400	177	255	20	14	22%	8%	95	+0.9	242/312/421	179	282	20	9	21%	9%	106	+1.8	242/318/423	180	282	20	7	21%	9%	110	+1.0
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	41	50	49→50	45	218/279/363	146	253	19	7	23%	6%	81	-0.1	203/291/334	131	265	15	11	28%	9%	79	-0.2	151/269/258	107	199	13	12	30%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	38→39	49→55	46→50	41	200/260/342	142	271	17	7	32%	7%	69	-0.9	204/268/369	165	259	20	12	29%	7%	78	-0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Andy Marte 2014 · AAA	30	45→49	49→55	48→40	44	231/280/371	140	271	18	7	23%	6%	82	+0.0	239/282/378	139	267	16	5	17%	6%	84	+0.2	237/277/371	134	260	15	1	16%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9