Bryan Abreu
P
Houston Astros
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 81
ERA3.51
FIP3.49
K%32.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%20.0%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9033.0%
K%
p8228.2%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CT (6%)
SL-3.3 (47%)
FB-4.0 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 10 | 52 | 219 | 48 | 36 | 2 | 71% | 3.7 | 14.9% | 20.5% | -5.6% | 1.3% | 3.83 | 5.15 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 10 | 52 | 219 | 48 | 36 | 2 | 71% | 3.7 | 21.9% | 16.4% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 3.83 | 3.84 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 13 | 4 | 39 | 178 | 41 | 20 | 0 | 31% | 3.0 | 15.7% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 4.89 | 3.56 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 13 | 4 | 39 | 178 | 41 | 20 | 0 | 31% | 3.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 4.89 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 8 | 6 | 29 | 135 | 40 | 21 | 4 | 75% | 3.7 | 20.1% | 19.4% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 7.98 | 6.14 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 8 | 6 | 29 | 135 | 40 | 21 | 4 | 75% | 3.7 | 29.6% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 7.98 | 4.29 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 10 | 5 | 38 | 153 | 68 | 17 | 2 | 50% | 3.8 | 32.9% | 13.1% | 19.8% | 1.8% | 1.64 | 2.97 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 10 | 5 | 38 | 153 | 68 | 17 | 2 | 50% | 3.8 | 44.4% | 11.1% | 33.3% | 1.3% | 1.64 | 1.56 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 16 | 100 | 428 | 139 | 57 | 8 | 53% | 3.3 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 16 | 100 | 428 | 139 | 57 | 8 | 53% | 3.3 | 32.5% | 13.3% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 3.07 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 15.0% | 35.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 6.27 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 15.0% | 35.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 7.60 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 60 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | 4.56 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 60 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 1.7% | 4.56 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 55 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 88 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 0.8% | 1.94 | 1.85 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 55 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 88 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 0.8% | 1.94 | 1.91 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 72 | 0 | 72 | 287 | 100 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 10.8% | 24.0% | 2.0% | 1.75 | 2.61 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 72 | 0 | 72 | 287 | 100 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 10.8% | 24.0% | 2.1% | 1.75 | 2.70 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 78 | 0 | 78 | 325 | 103 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 9.8% | 21.8% | 2.6% | 3.10 | 3.10 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 78 | 0 | 78 | 325 | 103 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 9.8% | 21.8% | 2.8% | 3.10 | 3.19 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 70 | 0 | 71 | 296 | 105 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 1.3% | 2.28 | 2.13 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 70 | 0 | 71 | 296 | 105 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 1.4% | 2.28 | 2.18 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 0 | 31 | 142 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.2% | 18.3% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 5.81 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 56 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 56 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 72 | 314 | 96 | 47 | 12 | — | — | 30.5% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 72 | 303 | 96 | 47 | 12 | — | — | 31.6% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 64 | 0 | 68 | 285 | 92 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 83 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.4% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 92 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 84 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 514 | 0 | 532 | 2234 | 719 | 266 | 54 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 3.25 | 3.23 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 270 | 100 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 3.25 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
| Career | — | 434 | 41 | 625 | 2660 | 743 | 365 | 51 | 9% | 1.4 | 27.9% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 3.54 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 13 | 200 | 851 | 238 | 117 | 16 | 9% | 1.4 | 27.9% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Abreu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.05 | 35.1% | 10.1% | 2.3% | — | 4.18 | 31.8% | 18.9% | 130 | +1.13 | — | — | — |
| Armando Rivero R 2025 · 2.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.81 | 32.9% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 125 | 69 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 68 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 66 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 66 |
| Spencer Patton R 2025 · 2.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.74 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 66 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 29.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .227 | 3.57 | 32.0% | 24.4% | 111 | +0.15 | 3.04 | 432 | 65 |
| Pedro Strop R 2027 · 2.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.64 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 2.84 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.20 | 2.48 | 277 | 64 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.81 | 28.6% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .285 | 3.36 | 22.8% | 17.4% | 102 | +0.55 | 2.81 | 574 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 64 |
| Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.73 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .310 | 3.99 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 157 | +1.26 | 1.75 | 404 | 64 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 64 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 185 | 63 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 1.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 1.86 | 32.1% | 7.7% | 0.9% | .298 | 3.39 | 25.2% | 19.0% | 162 | +1.53 | 1.86 | 238 | 63 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 63 |
| Chaz Roe R 2026 · 2.57 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.57 | 28.4% | 8.3% | 1.5% | .282 | 3.02 | 28.4% | 18.9% | 123 | +0.45 | 1.69 | 257 | 63 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.74 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.75 | 2.67 | 382 | 63 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 63 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 62 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.09 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .190 | 3.23 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.16 | 186 | 62 |
| Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.59 | 38.3% | 16.9% | 1.1% | .228 | 2.28 | 38.8% | 28.3% | 78 | -0.31 | 1.58 | 308 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 67 | 33.0% | 11.9% | 1.11 | 3.72 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |