Bryan Abreu

P Houston Astros

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	27	MLBHOU	78	78	3.10	3.19	31.7%	9.8%	1.3
2025	28	MLBHOU	70	71	2.28	2.18	35.5%	10.5%	2.0
2026	29	MLBHOU	66	63	3.73	4.38	29.9%	15.3%	0.1
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	58	61	3.79	3.94	32.4%	12.8%	0.4
2028PROJ	31	MLBHOU	49	51	4.02	4.17	31.7%	13.2%	0.2
2029PROJ	32	MLBHOU	39	41	4.26	4.43	30.9%	13.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

FB Velo67

xwOBA vs50

Form2.19 ERA (proj 3.79) · K 32.0% (proj 32.4%) · BB 13.0% (proj 12.8%) · last 90d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrad Lidge (age 30) · AJ Ramos (age 30) · Pedro Báez (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.79

FIP3.94

K%32.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%19.6%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL4040

CMD7070

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p9033.8%

p9029.9%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	10	52	219	48	36	2	71%	3.7	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	1.3%	3.83	5.15	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	14	10	52	219	48	36	2	71%	3.7	21.9%	16.4%	5.5%	0.9%	3.83	3.84	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	13	4	39	178	41	20	0	31%	3.0	15.7%	14.0%	1.6%	0.0%	4.89	3.56	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	13	4	39	178	41	20	0	31%	3.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	0.0%	4.89	2.53	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	8	6	29	135	40	21	4	75%	3.7	20.1%	19.4%	0.7%	4.1%	7.98	6.14	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	8	6	29	135	40	21	4	75%	3.7	29.6%	15.6%	14.1%	3.0%	7.98	4.29	—
2018	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	5	38	153	68	17	2	50%	3.8	32.9%	13.1%	19.8%	1.7%	1.64	2.94	—
2018	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	5	38	153	68	17	2	50%	3.8	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	1.3%	1.64	1.56	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	16	100	428	139	57	8	53%	3.3	25.5%	15.1%	10.4%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+1.5
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	16	100	428	139	57	8	53%	3.3	32.5%	13.3%	19.2%	1.9%	4.50	3.07	+2.8
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	4	0	3	20	3	7	0	0%	0.8	15.0%	35.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	2.70	6.27	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	4	0	3	20	3	7	0	0%	0.8	15.0%	35.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	2.70	7.60	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	229	60	31	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.8%	11.1%	1.8%	4.56	3.73	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	51	229	60	31	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	13.5%	12.7%	1.7%	4.56	3.59	+0.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	55	0	60	248	88	26	2	0%	1.1	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	0.8%	1.94	1.89	+1.9
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	55	0	60	248	88	26	2	0%	1.1	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	0.8%	1.94	1.91	+1.9
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.8%	24.0%	2.1%	1.75	2.71	+1.6
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.8%	24.0%	2.1%	1.75	2.70	+1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.23	+1.2
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.23	+1.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.19	+1.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.19	+2.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.19	+2.0
2025	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.18	+2.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	66	0	63	268	80	41	9	0%	0.9	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	3.5%	3.73	4.41	+0.1
2026	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	66	0	63	268	80	41	9	0%	0.9	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	3.5%	3.73	4.41	+0.1
2026	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	66	0	63	268	80	41	9	0%	0.9	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	3.4%	3.73	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			383	0	392	1637	528	189	34	0%	1.0	32.3%	11.5%	20.7%	2.1%	2.82	2.98	+7.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	58	0	61	258	83	33	7	0%	1.1	32.4%	12.8%	19.6%	2.9%	3.79	3.94	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	216	68	28	7	0%	1.0	31.7%	13.2%	18.5%	3.1%	4.02	4.17	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	39	0	41	175	54	24	6	0%	1.1	30.9%	13.6%	17.3%	3.3%	4.26	4.43	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	49	0	51	215	68	28	7	0%	1.0	31.7%	13.2%	18.5%	3.1%	4.02	4.17	+0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	39	0	41	173	53	23	6	0%	1.1	30.9%	13.6%	17.3%	3.3%	4.26	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		471	0	485	2028	650	241	47	0%	1.0	32.1%	11.9%	20.2%	2.3%	3.07	3.16	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	836	268	99	19	0%	1.0	32.1%	11.9%	20.2%	2.3%	3.07	3.16	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		466	41	657	2786	783	380	56	9%	1.4	28.1%	13.7%	14.5%	2.0%	3.44	3.56	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	12	200	848	238	116	17	9%	1.4	28.1%	13.7%	14.5%	2.0%	3.44	3.56	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 15 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.02 (+0.48)K% 35.3% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.880	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.12%	—	×1.050	20.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 77 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.13 (+0.78)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.97%	—	×0.810	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.24%	—	×1.100	15.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.067	×1.200	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 15 IPFIP 2.67 → 4.23 (+1.56)K% 42.4% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.37%	—	×0.770	32.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×1.150	11.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.969	×1.250	4.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 38 IPFIP 1.47 → 2.94 (+1.47)K% 44.4% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.740	32.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷0.973	×1.300	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.47 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGreeneville Astros · 29 IPFIP 4.19 → 6.14 (+1.94)K% 29.6% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.680	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.56%	—	×1.250	19.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGCL Astros · 39 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.56 (+0.98)K% 23.0% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.03%	—	×0.680	15.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.250	14.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKDSL Astros Orange · 52 IPFIP 3.83 → 5.15 (+1.31)K% 21.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.92%	—	×0.680	14.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.44%	—	×1.250	20.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.28%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	32.4%	12.8%	2.9%	—	4.29	31.3%	18.0%	92	+0.35	—	—	—
Brad Lidge R 2007 · 3.38 FIP	30	SU	3.38	30.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.274	3.39	26.9%	16.3%	174	+0.01	1.56	595	73
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	410	70
Pedro Báez R 2018 · 2.90 FIP	30	SU	2.90	26.2%	8.9%	1.6%	.280	3.37	23.7%	15.4%	87	+0.47	2.29	356	69
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	68
Ryne Stanek R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	30	SU	3.73	28.6%	11.7%	2.8%	.230	3.70	26.5%	15.7%	161	-0.03	2.96	771	68
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	68
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	68
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	67
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	66
Jose Veras R 2011 · 3.37 FIP	30	SU	3.37	25.9%	10.2%	2.1%	.254	3.67	24.9%	13.6%	176	+0.30	3.37	422	66
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	66
Scot Shields R 2005 · 2.81 FIP	30	SU	2.81	26.1%	9.3%	1.3%	.257	3.38	23.9%	15.5%	228	+0.57	2.77	686	66
Santiago Casilla R 2010 · 2.76 FIP	30	SU	2.76	24.9%	9.8%	1.0%	.262	3.47	20.0%	11.1%	165	+0.71	2.76	647	66
Joel Hanrahan R 2012 · 4.54 FIP	30	SU	4.54	26.4%	14.2%	3.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	397	66
Héctor Neris R 2019 · 3.29 FIP	30	SU	3.29	32.4%	8.4%	3.4%	.229	2.78	30.2%	21.8%	161	-0.51	2.03	682	65
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	64
Jake Cousins R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	34.2%	12.3%	3.0%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	1.11	160	64
Joaquín Benoit R 2007 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	25.8%	7.7%	1.8%	.284	3.45	28.6%	19.2%	105	+0.58	1.99	1,064	64
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	61	32.1%	12.0%	0.91	3.15
Brad Lidge ('12)	3.0	75	30.9%	11.1%	0.85	3.54
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Armando Benítez ('08)	3.9	65	29.1%	12.4%	1.10	3.13
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Al Hrabosky ('70-'82, 10 WAR*)	3.6	72	26.7%*	10.1%*	0.98*	3.50*