Bryan Abreu — OGILVIE

Bryan Abreu P Houston Astros

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.32

FIP3.32

K%32.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%19.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL4040

CMD7070

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p9034.9%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT (9%)

SL-3.3 (44%)

FB-4.0 (47%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.4M
Totals		$0.5M		$0.1M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	10	52	219	48	36	2	71%	3.7	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	1.3%	3.83	5.15	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	14	10	52	219	48	36	2	71%	3.7	21.9%	16.4%	5.5%	0.9%	3.83	3.84	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	13	4	39	178	41	20	0	31%	3.0	15.7%	14.0%	1.6%	0.0%	4.89	3.56	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	13	4	39	178	41	20	0	31%	3.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	0.0%	4.89	2.53	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	8	6	29	135	40	21	4	75%	3.7	20.1%	19.4%	0.7%	4.1%	7.98	6.14	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	8	6	29	135	40	21	4	75%	3.7	29.6%	15.6%	14.1%	3.0%	7.98	4.29	—
2018	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	5	38	153	68	17	2	50%	3.8	32.9%	13.1%	19.8%	1.7%	1.64	2.94	—
2018	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	5	38	153	68	17	2	50%	3.8	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	1.3%	1.64	1.56	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	16	100	428	139	57	8	53%	3.3	25.5%	15.1%	10.4%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+0.9
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	16	100	428	139	57	8	53%	3.3	32.5%	13.3%	19.2%	1.9%	4.50	3.07	+2.2
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	4	0	3	20	3	7	0	0%	0.8	15.0%	35.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	2.70	6.27	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	4	0	3	20	3	7	0	0%	0.8	15.0%	35.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	2.70	7.60	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	229	60	31	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.8%	11.1%	1.8%	4.56	3.73	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	51	229	60	31	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	13.5%	12.7%	1.7%	4.56	3.59	+0.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	55	0	60	248	88	26	2	0%	1.1	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	0.8%	1.94	1.89	+1.9
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	55	0	60	248	88	26	2	0%	1.1	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	0.8%	1.94	1.91	+1.9
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.8%	24.0%	2.1%	1.75	2.71	+1.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.8%	24.0%	2.1%	1.75	2.71	+1.6
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	10.8%	24.0%	2.1%	1.75	2.70	+1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.23	+1.2
2024	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.23	+1.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	0%	1.0	31.7%	9.8%	21.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.19	+1.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.19	+2.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.19	+2.0
2025	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	2.28	2.18	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			378	0	388	1620	524	188	33	0%	1.0	32.3%	11.6%	20.7%	2.0%	2.83	2.96	+7.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	61	0	58	251	76	40	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	15.9%	14.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.36	+0.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	61	0	58	251	76	40	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	15.9%	14.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.36	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	HOU	61	0	58	251	76	40	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	15.9%	14.3%	3.2%	3.86	4.31	+0.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	HOU	61	0	58	251	76	40	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	15.9%	14.3%	3.2%	3.86	4.31	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	32.3%	12.5%	19.8%	2.5%	3.32	3.32	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	32.3%	12.5%	19.8%	2.4%	3.28	3.28	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	64	276	84	43	9	—	—	30.5%	15.6%	14.8%	3.1%	3.81	4.27	+0.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	64	271	84	43	9	—	—	31.0%	15.9%	15.1%	3.2%	3.80	4.24	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	68	285	91	37	8	0%	1.1	32.1%	12.8%	19.2%	2.9%	3.88	3.97	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	266	83	35	8	0%	1.0	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	3.1%	4.07	4.20	+0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	65	0	68	287	92	37	8	0%	1.0	32.1%	12.8%	19.2%	2.8%	3.84	3.93	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	60	0	63	266	83	35	8	0%	1.1	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	3.0%	4.02	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		508	0	524	2195	707	263	49	0%	1.0	32.2%	12.0%	20.2%	2.3%	3.11	3.14	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	837	270	100	19	0%	1.0	32.2%	12.0%	20.2%	2.3%	3.11	3.14	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		461	41	653	2769	779	379	55	9%	1.4	28.1%	13.7%	14.4%	2.0%	3.45	3.55	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	13	200	849	239	116	17	9%	1.4	28.1%	13.7%	14.4%	2.0%	3.45	3.55	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.13	34.8%	10.1%	2.4%	—	4.08	31.7%	18.7%	130	+0.95	—	—	—
Cody Allen R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	27.7%	10.7%	3.8%	.281	7.35	25.0%	7.8%	23	+3.13	1.58	295	75
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	575	71
Dellin Betances R 2017 · 2.59 FIP	29	SU	2.59	38.3%	16.9%	1.1%	.228	2.29	38.8%	28.3%	78	-0.30	1.59	308	71
Trevor May R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	29.7%	9.4%	3.0%	.227	3.57	32.0%	24.4%	111	+0.14	3.05	432	70
Mychal Givens R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	29	SU	4.00	33.1%	9.6%	4.5%	.265	3.90	26.4%	16.9%	135	-0.10	1.77	526	70
Heath Hembree R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	29.2%	10.0%	3.9%	.291	4.73	29.7%	20.4%	117	+0.67	2.58	382	69
Armando Rivero R 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SU	2.70	32.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	125	69
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	69
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	68
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	68
David Phelps R 2016 · 2.50 FIP	29	SU	2.50	32.4%	9.1%	1.8%	.275	3.71	25.5%	15.3%	90	+1.21	2.50	373	68
Scott Oberg R 2019 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.0%	9.4%	2.0%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	2.54	302	67
Alex Colomé R 2018 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	25.5%	6.7%	2.5%	.283	3.68	20.5%	12.4%	148	+0.49	2.72	530	67
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	66
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	66
Ryan Pressly R 2018 · 2.25 FIP	29	SU	2.25	34.6%	7.2%	2.1%	.311	2.23	33.0%	27.6%	139	-0.02	1.88	586	66
Liam Hendriks R 2018 · 2.70 FIP	29	SW	2.70	28.9%	6.9%	2.1%	.339	1.57	39.7%	36.2%	181	-1.13	0.63	495	66
Chaz Roe R 2016 · 2.49 FIP	29	SU	2.49	28.4%	8.3%	1.3%	.282	3.00	28.4%	18.9%	123	+0.51	1.72	257	66
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	65
Jason Adam R 2021 · 2.55 FIP	29	SU	2.55	38.0%	12.0%	2.1%	.375	2.72	30.3%	23.1%	191	+0.17	2.42	394	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	32.8%	12.0%	1.07	3.67
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22