Bryan Abreu — OGILVIE

Bryan Abreu P Houston Astros

+1.6 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.5 · 2026

ERA2.91

FIP3.25

xFIP6.88

SIERA6.77

K%32.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%22.3%

IP72

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2026

K†8080

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p9041.2%

p9035.5%

xwOBA vs

p740.289

SL-3.3 (49%)

FB-4.0 (51%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	14	10	52	219	48	36	2	14.9%	20.5%	1.3%	3.83	5.15	-0.1
2016	19	ROK	GCL Astros	13	4	39	178	41	20	0	15.7%	14.0%	0.0%	4.89	3.56	+0.6
2017	20	ROK	Greeneville Astros	8	6	29	135	40	21	4	20.1%	19.4%	4.1%	7.98	6.14	-0.4
2018	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	10	5	38	153	68	17	2	32.9%	13.1%	1.8%	1.64	2.95	+0.9
2019	22	MLB	Houston Astros	30	16	100	428	139	57	8	25.5%	15.1%	2.3%	4.50	4.14	+1.3
2020	23	MLB	Houston Astros	4	0	3	20	3	7	0	—	—	—	2.70	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	46	0	51	229	60	31	4	24.9%	13.8%	1.7%	4.56	3.67	+0.7
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	55	0	60	248	88	26	2	35.5%	10.5%	0.8%	1.94	1.86	+2.1
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	72	0	72	287	100	31	6	34.8%	10.8%	2.2%	1.75	2.76	+1.9
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	78	0	78	325	103	32	9	31.7%	9.8%	2.7%	3.10	3.15	+1.7
2025	28	MLB	Houston Astros	70	0	71	296	105	31	4	35.5%	10.5%	1.4%	2.28	2.20	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Houston Astros	8	0	6	37	12	12	3	—	—	—	12.79	—	—
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	12	12	65	276	95	28	7	34.5%	10.1%	2.4%	2.83	3.15	+1.4
2026 Total	29	MLB	HOU	—	—	72	313	107	40	10	34.2%	12.7%	3.1%	3.71	2.87	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	HOU	13	13	70	294	99	36	8	33.6%	12.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.76	+1.0
2028	31	MLB	HOU	12	12	67	284	94	35	8	33.0%	12.5%	2.9%	3.76	3.87	+0.9
2029	32	MLB	HOU	12	12	64	272	88	34	8	32.4%	12.6%	3.0%	3.89	3.98	+0.7
2030	33	MLB	HOU	11	11	62	260	83	33	8	31.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.02	4.11	+0.6
2031	34	MLB	HOU	58	—	58	247	77	32	8	31.0%	13.0%	3.2%	4.16	4.25	+0.5
2032	35	MLB	HOU	55	—	55	233	70	31	8	30.3%	13.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.40	+0.3
2033	36	MLB	HOU	52	—	52	217	64	29	7	29.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.56	+0.2
2034	37	MLB	HOU	48	—	48	202	58	28	7	28.7%	13.7%	3.5%	4.63	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			408	41	601	2555	715	351	49	28.0%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.54	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—			136	14	200	851	238	117	16	28.0%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.54	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.15	34.5%	10.1%	2.4%	—	3.87	33.0%	20.5%	201	+0.72	—	—	—
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	69
Blake Wood R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.57	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.66	2.91	210	68
Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	29	SW	4.10	27.7%	10.7%	3.6%	.281	7.47	25.0%	7.8%	23	+3.37	1.58	295	68
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	68
Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	68
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	29	SW	4.03	24.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.65	2.38	160	67
Armando Rivero R 2025 · 2.69 FIP	28	SW	2.69	32.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	125	67
Spencer Patton R 2025 · 2.83 FIP	28	SW	2.83	30.3%	12.2%	1.4%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	239	66
Trevor May R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	29	SW	3.50	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%	.227	3.62	32.0%	24.4%	111	+0.12	3.04	432	66
Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	29	SW	4.01	23.2%	12.3%	2.4%	.290	4.91	22.5%	-2.9%	51	+0.90	4.01	130	66
Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	29	SW	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.89	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.84	3.05	227	66
John Brebbia R 2026 · 2.96 FIP	29	SW	2.96	28.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.285	3.28	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.32	2.96	523	65
Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.96 FIP	29	SU	2.96	27.3%	9.4%	1.8%	.310	4.02	24.9%	14.9%	157	+1.06	1.75	365	65
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	29	SW	4.23	22.9%	9.6%	3.4%	.261	3.16	24.7%	16.1%	143	-1.07	2.29	332	65
Pedro Strop R 2027 · 2.58 FIP	30	SW	2.58	30.0%	8.5%	1.7%	.211	2.91	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.33	2.58	277	65
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	65
Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	29	SW	3.40	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.44	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.04	2.83	432	65
Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	29	SW	3.78	28.3%	10.3%	3.2%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	185	65
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	29	SW	3.85	26.5%	8.4%	3.5%	.292	4.74	21.4%	16.7%	57	+0.89	2.83	363	64

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$6M	+1.5	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$6M