Michael Soroka

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	31	9	88	4.62	4.53	25.3%	11.9%	0.0	K 24.2% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.65
2025	27	MIX3 levels	26	20	104	4.41	3.85	26.5%	7.8%	1.3	K 25.1% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.76
2026	28	MIX2 levels	23	22	120	3.38	3.02	23.5%	6.1%	2.8	K 24.1% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.04
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	17	17	102	3.93	3.86	23.9%	7.0%	1.3
2028PROJ	30	MLBARI	16	16	96	3.92	3.98	23.2%	7.3%	0.9
2029PROJ	31	MLBARI	15	15	90	4.08	4.20	22.4%	7.6%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.052First FA2028Options1

2027Ext / FA-deal$15M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%60

xwOBA vs50

FB Velo37

Whiff%34

CompsChase Anderson (age 29) · Kenta Maeda (age 29) · Tylor Megill (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.93

FIP3.86

K%23.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%16.9%

Proj IP102

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

SL+2.2 (33%)

CT+1.1 (12%)

CH (12%)

SI (10%)

CU (32%)

FB-2.0 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.052 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+1.3	$10M	-$5M
Totals		$15M		$10M	-$5M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	10	9	34	143	37	5	0	90%	3.4	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	0.0%	3.18	2.17	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	10	9	34	143	37	5	0	90%	3.4	25.9%	3.5%	22.4%	0.0%	3.18	1.36	—
2016	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	25	24	143	585	125	32	3	96%	5.7	15.8%	6.5%	9.4%	0.7%	3.02	2.96	—
2016	18	A RAW	Rome Braves	25	24	143	585	125	32	3	96%	5.7	21.4%	5.5%	15.9%	0.5%	3.02	2.30	—
2017	19	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	26	26	154	627	125	34	10	100%	5.9	16.1%	6.0%	10.2%	2.1%	2.75	3.63	—
2017	19	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	26	26	154	627	125	34	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.4%	14.5%	1.6%	2.75	2.98	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	56	228	55	13	1	100%	5.1	22.2%	6.1%	16.1%	0.5%	2.56	2.25	+1.9
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	56	228	55	13	1	100%	5.1	24.1%	5.7%	18.4%	0.4%	2.56	2.07	+2.1
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	184	734	152	41	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	2.0%	2.74	3.21	+3.9
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	184	734	152	41	15	100%	5.9	20.7%	5.6%	15.1%	2.0%	2.74	3.18	+4.0
2020	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	3	3	14	57	8	7	0	100%	4.6	14.0%	12.3%	1.8%	0.0%	3.95	3.47	+0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	3	3	14	57	8	7	0	100%	4.6	14.0%	12.3%	1.8%	0.0%	3.95	3.47	+0.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	25	103	25	7	3	100%	4.2	16.8%	8.3%	8.6%	3.8%	5.40	4.80	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	25	103	25	7	3	100%	4.2	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	2.9%	5.40	3.50	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	119	500	121	40	15	96%	5.0	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.22	3.94	+1.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	119	500	121	40	15	96%	5.0	24.2%	8.0%	16.2%	3.0%	4.22	3.71	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	25.3%	11.9%	13.5%	3.7%	4.62	4.53	+0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.3%	4.41	3.76	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.3%	4.41	3.76	+1.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	3.7%	4.41	3.85	+1.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	490	115	30	10	96%	5.2	24.1%	5.9%	18.2%	2.2%	3.38	3.04	+2.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	490	115	30	10	96%	5.2	24.1%	5.9%	18.2%	2.2%	3.38	3.04	+2.8
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	490	115	30	10	96%	5.2	23.5%	6.1%	17.3%	2.0%	3.38	3.02	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			113	90	532	2215	493	166	59	80%	4.7	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	2.7%	3.76	3.62	+8.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	17	17	102	431	103	30	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	7.0%	16.9%	2.8%	3.93	3.86	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	96	407	94	30	12	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	3.0%	4.01	4.07	+0.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	90	379	85	29	12	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.18	4.30	+0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	83	351	76	28	12	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.41	4.56	+0.3
2031	33	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	76	322	73	25	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2032	34	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	69	293	64	24	12	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.0%	4.72	4.87	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	96	405	94	29	11	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.8%	3.92	3.98	+0.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	90	380	85	29	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	3.0%	4.08	4.20	+0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	83	350	76	28	11	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.3%	4.31	4.46	+0.3
2031	33	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	76	321	73	25	11	100%	5.8	22.8%	7.7%	15.1%	3.5%	4.39	4.46	+0.3
2032	34	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	69	291	64	24	11	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.8%	4.60	4.75	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	159	946	3966	886	301	116	87%	5.2	22.3%	7.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.97	3.78	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	838	187	64	25	87%	5.2	22.3%	7.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.97	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		216	184	1041	4284	871	299	92	85%	4.8	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	2.1%	3.43	3.44	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	823	167	58	18	85%	4.8	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	2.1%	3.43	3.44	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Soroka (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	23.9%	7.0%	2.8%	—	4.30	22.5%	14.9%	269	+0.44	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	71
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	66
Tylor Megill R 2024 · 3.33 FIP	29	SP	3.33	27.0%	9.7%	2.4%	.301	3.33	27.4%	16.4%	83	+0.00	3.02	603	65
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	65
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,798	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	62
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	62
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	1,014	62
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	62
Brad Peacock R 2017 · 2.97 FIP	29	SP-	2.97	29.5%	10.4%	1.9%	.283	3.85	29.3%	21.5%	157	+0.88	2.97	748	61
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	61
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	1.87	1,044	60
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	60
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	60
Chris Bassitt R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	29	SP-	3.49	20.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.307	3.64	23.5%	16.8%	364	+0.15	2.92	1,596	59
Kevin Slowey R 2013 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	19.2%	4.6%	3.2%	.325	3.53	14.2%	9.5%	37	-0.28	3.53	662	59
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	59
Matt Shoemaker R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	29	SP	3.29	21.4%	4.3%	2.6%	.310	4.27	22.4%	14.0%	137	+0.98	3.12	728	59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	59
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	87	22.5%	7.6%	1.15	4.00
Tom Sturdivant ('55-'64, 10 WAR*)	5.7	114	21.9%*	8.7%*	1.08*	4.16*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Turk Farrell ('56-'69, 18 WAR*)	8.5	131	21.8%*	7.1%*	1.10*	4.12*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20