Devin Williams — OGILVIE

Devin Williams P New York Mets

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8576vR 67

ERA2.84

FIP2.81

K%33.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%23.3%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL4040

CMD7575

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p9035.1%

p9029.5%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

FB-0.9 (51%)

CH-4.0 (48%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$7M	+0.4	$2M	-$5M
2027	Ext	$17M	+0.7	$3M	-$13M
2028	Ext	$17M	+0.5	$2M	-$12M
Totals		$41M		$6M	-$30M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$30M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	89	379	89	35	3	59%	4.0	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	0.6%	3.44	3.35	—
2015	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	89	379	89	35	3	59%	4.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.2%	0.8%	3.44	2.72	—
2016	21	MIX	2 levels	22	12	97	418	94	46	6	55%	4.4	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	1.4%	3.79	4.11	—
2016	21	MIX	2 levels	22	12	97	418	94	46	6	55%	4.4	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	1.4%	3.79	3.39	—
2018	23	A+	Carolina Mudcats	14	14	34	164	35	22	2	100%	2.4	16.4%	15.4%	1.0%	1.5%	5.82	4.49	—
2018	23	A+	Carolina Mudcats	14	14	34	164	35	22	2	100%	2.4	21.3%	13.4%	7.9%	1.2%	5.82	3.75	—
2019	24	MIX	3 levels	47	0	71	300	96	36	5	0%	1.5	26.3%	13.2%	13.1%	1.9%	2.55	3.61	+1.0
2019	24	MIX	3 levels	47	0	71	300	96	36	5	0%	1.5	32.0%	12.0%	20.0%	1.7%	2.55	2.83	+1.6
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	22	0	27	100	53	9	1	0%	1.2	53.0%	9.0%	44.0%	1.0%	0.33	0.34	+1.3
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	22	0	27	100	53	9	1	0%	1.2	53.0%	9.0%	44.0%	1.0%	0.33	0.66	+1.2
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	58	0	54	226	87	28	5	0%	0.9	38.5%	12.4%	26.1%	2.3%	2.50	2.68	+1.2
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	58	0	54	226	87	28	5	0%	0.9	38.5%	12.4%	26.1%	2.2%	2.50	2.64	+1.2
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	65	0	61	240	96	29	2	0%	0.9	40.0%	12.1%	27.9%	0.9%	1.93	1.73	+2.0
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	65	0	61	240	96	29	2	0%	0.9	40.0%	12.1%	27.9%	0.8%	1.93	1.80	+2.0
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	0%	1.0	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.8%	1.53	2.39	+1.5
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	0%	1.0	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.7%	1.53	2.40	+1.5
2024	29	MIX	3 levels	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	0%	1.0	43.2%	11.4%	31.8%	1.2%	1.05	1.54	+0.9
2024	29	MIX	3 levels	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	0%	1.0	42.7%	11.7%	31.1%	1.0%	1.05	1.58	+0.9
2025	30	MLB	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	9.3%	25.5%	1.8%	4.79	2.33	+1.6
2025	30	MLB	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	9.3%	25.5%	1.9%	4.79	2.41	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	New York Mets	35	0	32	149	44	18	3	0%	0.9	29.5%	12.1%	17.4%	2.0%	4.83	3.24	+0.5
ROS	31	MLB	NYM	27	0	28	119	40	12	3	0%	1.0	33.4%	10.1%	23.3%	2.3%	2.84	2.81	+0.6
ROS	31	MLB	NYM	27	0	28	118	39	12	3	0%	1.0	33.4%	10.1%	23.3%	2.3%	2.84	2.81	+0.6
2026 TOT	31	MLB	NYM	—	—	60	268	84	30	6	—	—	31.2%	11.2%	20.0%	2.1%	3.89	3.04	+1.1
2026 FULL	31	MLB	NYM	—	—	60	253	84	30	6	—	—	33.1%	11.9%	21.2%	2.3%	3.89	3.05	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	NYM	53	0	55	234	77	25	6	0%	1.0	33.0%	10.6%	22.4%	2.5%	3.32	3.41	+0.7
2028	33	MLB	NYM	48	0	51	214	69	24	6	0%	1.1	32.2%	11.0%	21.1%	2.8%	3.54	3.69	+0.5
2027	32	MLB	NYM	50	0	53	224	74	24	6	0%	1.1	33.0%	10.6%	22.4%	2.5%	3.32	3.41	+0.7
2028	33	MLB	NYM	46	0	48	203	65	22	6	0%	1.0	32.2%	11.0%	21.1%	2.8%	3.54	3.69	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			466	0	458	1905	688	209	37	0%	1.0	36.1%	11.0%	25.1%	1.9%	2.85	2.51	+15.5
/ 200 IP	—			203	0	200	831	300	91	16	0%	1.0	36.1%	11.0%	25.1%	1.9%	2.85	2.51	+6.8
Career	—			439	39	611	2569	743	307	38	9%	1.4	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.5%	3.08	2.98	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—			144	13	200	841	243	100	12	9%	1.4	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.5%	3.08	2.98	+5.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.92	35.9%	9.3%	2.3%	—	3.54	32.6%	21.8%	106	+0.62	—	—	—
Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	31	SU	2.91	32.4%	9.1%	2.5%	.272	3.61	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.70	2.41	261	78
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	31	SU	3.25	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.38	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.87	1.99	494	74
Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.08 FIP	31	SU	3.08	32.6%	11.2%	2.4%	.254	3.71	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.63	2.00	320	73
C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	34.7%	9.1%	3.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	121	72
Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.45 FIP	31	SU	2.45	30.0%	5.9%	2.1%	.277	5.30	23.7%	12.8%	80	+2.85	2.45	260	72
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	31.1%	9.0%	3.3%	.222	3.03	25.3%	18.2%	171	-0.42	2.45	394	71
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	31	SU	3.41	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.66	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.25	3.41	212	71
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP	33	SU	3.09	27.9%	8.7%	2.3%	.305	5.10	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.01	2.74	239	71
Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	31	SU	3.29	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.81	23.7%	17.8%	118	-0.48	2.23	367	70
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	28.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.257	3.20	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.16	2.82	316	70
Collin McHugh R 2026 · 2.33 FIP	31	SU	2.33	33.2%	7.4%	2.0%	.241	3.02	27.8%	20.8%	139	+0.69	1.79	806	69
Rafael Martín R 2026 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	30.5%	7.1%	2.6%	.285	4.03	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.18	2.85	227	69
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.69	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.29	2.73	410	69
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	31	SU	3.29	30.4%	6.1%	3.6%	.266	2.82	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.47	0.98	663	68
Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	27.5%	9.2%	3.5%	.282	3.93	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.04	2.49	417	67
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	31	SU	3.57	24.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.325	3.78	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.21	3.57	137	67
Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.17	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.80	2.37	153	66
Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.34 FIP	31	SU	2.34	30.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.291	4.06	29.3%	24.4%	133	+1.72	2.34	232	66
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	25.3%	9.3%	2.5%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	210	66
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	31	SU	2.48	32.1%	7.5%	2.1%	.211	3.23	25.5%	16.3%	162	+0.75	2.48	277	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	55	33.8%	10.3%	0.98	3.25
Cody Allen ('19)	5	59	31.3%	10.2%	1.19	3.51
Keone Kela ('19)	5	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Corey Knebel ('22)	6	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
David Robertson ('24)	7	66	32.1%	9.6%	0.85	2.91
Diego Castillo ('22)	5	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Andrew Miller ('21)	6	54	35.9%	8.3%	0.97	2.73