Devin Williams — OGILVIE

Devin Williams P New York Mets

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.0 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8779vR 71

ERA2.89

FIP2.86

K%32.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%22.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL4040

CMD7575

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p9034.9%

p8528.7%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

FB-0.9 (52%)

CH-4.0 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$17M	+0.8	$3M	-$12M
2028	Ext	$17M	+0.5	$2M	-$12M
Totals		$35M		$5M	-$26M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$26M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	89	379	89	35	3	59%	4.0	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	0.8%	3.44	3.44	—
2015	20	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	89	379	89	35	3	59%	4.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.2%	0.8%	3.44	2.72	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	418	94	46	6	55%	4.4	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	1.6%	3.79	4.20	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	12	97	418	94	46	6	55%	4.4	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	1.4%	3.79	3.39	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	14	14	34	164	35	22	2	100%	2.4	16.4%	15.4%	1.0%	1.5%	5.82	4.50	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	14	14	34	164	35	22	2	100%	2.4	21.3%	13.4%	7.9%	1.2%	5.82	3.75	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	71	300	96	36	5	0%	1.5	26.3%	13.2%	13.1%	1.9%	2.55	3.59	+0.8
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	71	300	96	36	5	0%	1.5	32.0%	12.0%	20.0%	1.7%	2.55	2.83	+1.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	22	0	27	100	53	9	1	0%	1.2	53.0%	9.0%	44.0%	1.0%	0.33	0.29	+1.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	22	0	27	100	53	9	1	0%	1.2	53.0%	9.0%	44.0%	1.0%	0.33	0.66	+1.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	58	0	54	226	87	28	5	0%	0.9	38.5%	12.4%	26.1%	2.1%	2.50	2.58	+1.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	58	0	54	226	87	28	5	0%	0.9	38.5%	12.4%	26.1%	2.2%	2.50	2.64	+1.2
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	65	0	61	240	96	29	2	0%	0.9	40.0%	12.1%	27.9%	0.8%	1.93	1.69	+2.1
2022	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	65	0	61	240	96	29	2	0%	0.9	40.0%	12.1%	27.9%	0.8%	1.93	1.80	+2.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	0%	1.0	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.6%	1.53	2.31	+1.6
2023	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	0%	1.0	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.6%	1.53	2.31	+1.6
2023	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	0%	1.0	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.7%	1.53	2.40	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	0%	1.0	43.2%	11.4%	31.8%	1.1%	1.05	1.49	+0.9
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	0%	1.0	43.2%	11.4%	31.8%	1.1%	1.05	1.49	+0.9
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	0%	1.0	42.7%	11.7%	31.1%	1.0%	1.05	1.58	+0.9
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	9.3%	25.5%	1.8%	4.79	2.33	+1.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	9.3%	25.5%	1.8%	4.79	2.33	+1.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	9.3%	25.5%	1.9%	4.79	2.41	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			350	0	336	1389	516	153	23	0%	1.0	37.1%	11.0%	26.1%	1.7%	2.70	2.29	+9.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	42	0	39	178	51	20	3	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.2%	17.4%	1.7%	4.66	3.03	+0.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	42	0	39	178	51	20	3	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.2%	17.4%	1.7%	4.66	3.03	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	NYM	42	0	39	178	51	20	3	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.2%	17.4%	1.7%	4.66	3.03	+0.7
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	NYM	42	0	39	178	51	20	3	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.2%	17.4%	1.7%	4.66	3.03	+0.7
ROS	31	MLB MLE	NYM	3	0	4	15	5	2	0	0%	1.2	32.6%	10.0%	22.7%	2.3%	2.89	2.86	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	NYM	4	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.0	32.6%	10.0%	22.7%	2.3%	2.89	2.86	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	42	193	56	22	3	—	—	29.0%	11.1%	17.8%	1.7%	4.50	3.02	+0.8
FULL	31	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	42	178	56	22	3	—	—	31.4%	12.1%	19.3%	1.9%	4.50	3.01	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	234	76	24	6	0%	1.0	32.4%	10.4%	22.0%	2.4%	3.30	3.39	+0.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	48	0	51	214	68	23	6	0%	1.1	31.5%	10.8%	20.7%	2.7%	3.52	3.67	+0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	53	224	72	23	5	0%	1.1	32.4%	10.4%	22.0%	2.4%	3.30	3.39	+0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	46	0	48	203	64	22	5	0%	1.0	31.5%	10.8%	20.7%	2.7%	3.52	3.67	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		450	0	441	1830	657	200	34	0%	1.0	35.9%	10.9%	25.0%	1.9%	2.86	2.47	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	830	298	91	15	0%	1.0	35.9%	10.9%	25.0%	1.9%	2.86	2.47	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		446	39	618	2598	750	309	38	9%	1.4	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.5%	3.09	2.97	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	13	200	841	243	100	12	9%	1.4	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.5%	3.09	2.97	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.92	35.9%	9.4%	2.3%	—	3.52	32.0%	21.4%	106	+0.60	—	—	—
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	79
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	78
Wade Davis R 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	32.6%	11.2%	2.6%	.254	3.92	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.75	2.00	320	77
Jason Adam R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	31.1%	9.0%	3.2%	.222	2.95	25.3%	18.2%	171	-0.45	2.42	394	75
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	75
Anthony Swarzak R 2017 · 2.35 FIP	31	SU	2.35	30.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.277	5.30	23.7%	12.8%	80	+2.95	2.35	260	75
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	74
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	73
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	73
Kenley Jansen R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	31	SU	3.10	30.4%	6.1%	3.3%	.266	2.77	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.33	0.89	681	72
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	72
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	72
Tyler Clippard R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	27.5%	9.2%	3.6%	.282	3.98	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.08	2.49	417	71
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	70
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	70
Rafael Martín R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	31	SU	2.94	30.5%	7.1%	2.8%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.05	2.94	227	69
Pedro Strop R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	31	SU	2.56	32.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.211	3.30	25.5%	16.3%	162	+0.74	2.56	277	69
Will Harris R 2016 · 2.17 FIP	31	SU	2.17	27.1%	5.5%	1.2%	.290	2.84	28.0%	22.6%	162	+0.67	2.17	315	68
Greg Holland R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	31	SU	3.38	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.47	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.09	1.97	268	68
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	332	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	33.3%	10.2%	0.96	3.25
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33