Devin Williams — OGILVIE

Devin Williams P New York Mets

+1.0 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2026

ERA3.07

FIP3.15

xFIP4.25

SIERA3.87

K%33.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%23.3%

IP46

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p9037.7%

p9034.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

FB-0.9 (52%)

CH-4.0 (48%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	13	89	379	89	35	3	17.4%	10.9%	0.8%	3.44	3.46	+1.8
2016	21	A+	Brevard County Manatees	22	12	97	418	94	46	6	16.8%	12.9%	1.6%	3.79	4.20	+1.2
2018	23	A+	Carolina Mudcats	14	14	34	164	35	22	2	16.4%	15.4%	1.5%	5.82	4.50	+0.2
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	47	0	71	300	96	36	5	26.3%	13.2%	1.9%	2.55	3.60	+1.2
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	22	0	27	100	53	9	1	53.0%	9.0%	1.0%	0.33	0.30	+1.4
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	58	0	54	226	87	28	5	38.5%	12.4%	2.2%	2.50	2.62	+1.4
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	65	0	61	240	96	29	2	40.0%	12.1%	0.7%	1.93	1.66	+2.3
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	59	231	87	27	4	37.7%	11.7%	1.7%	1.53	2.32	+1.8
2024	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	26	0	26	103	44	12	1	43.2%	11.4%	1.0%	1.05	1.43	+1.0
2025	30	MLB	New York Yankees	67	0	62	259	90	24	5	34.7%	9.3%	1.8%	4.79	2.32	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	New York Mets	6	0	5	26	8	3	1	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	NYM	41	—	41	172	57	17	4	33.0%	9.7%	2.4%	2.90	3.21	+0.8
2026 Total	31	MLB	NYM	—	—	46	198	65	20	5	32.7%	9.9%	2.6%	3.35	2.84	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	NYM	44	—	44	187	60	19	5	32.1%	9.9%	2.5%	3.24	3.41	+0.8
2028	33	MLB	NYM	42	—	42	179	56	18	5	31.5%	10.1%	2.6%	3.42	3.54	+0.7
2029	34	MLB	NYM	40	—	40	170	52	17	5	30.8%	10.3%	2.7%	3.57	3.68	+0.6
2030	35	MLB	NYM	38	—	38	160	48	17	5	30.0%	10.5%	2.8%	3.72	3.83	+0.5
2031	36	MLB	NYM	35	—	35	149	44	16	4	29.3%	10.8%	2.9%	3.88	3.99	+0.4
2032	37	MLB	NYM	33	—	33	138	39	15	4	28.4%	11.1%	3.1%	4.05	4.16	+0.3
2033	38	MLB	NYM	30	—	30	128	35	14	4	27.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.23	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			410	39	584	2446	707	292	36	28.9%	11.9%	1.5%	3.02	2.98	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—			140	13	200	837	242	100	12	28.9%	11.9%	1.5%	3.02	2.98	+5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.21	33.0%	9.7%	2.4%	—	3.54	31.5%	21.4%	127	+0.33	—	—	—
Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.84 FIP	31	SW	2.84	32.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.272	3.57	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.73	2.37	261	76
C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	31	SU	3.02	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	121	74
Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	31	SW	2.35	30.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.277	5.22	23.7%	12.8%	80	+2.87	2.35	260	72
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	70
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	31	SW	3.26	31.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.222	2.53	27.4%	20.0%	139	-0.73	2.40	362	70
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.13	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.13	2.73	316	70
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	28.1%	10.5%	2.3%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.91	2.00	494	70
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SW	3.04	30.4%	6.1%	3.2%	.266	2.65	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.39	0.97	640	70
Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	31	SW	3.07	32.6%	11.2%	2.4%	.254	3.96	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.89	2.00	320	70
Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP	31	SU	3.23	29.1%	9.2%	2.6%	.345	2.77	23.7%	17.8%	118	-0.46	2.11	300	70
Collin McHugh R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	31	SW	2.35	33.2%	7.4%	2.0%	.241	3.05	27.8%	20.8%	139	+0.70	1.78	806	69
Rafael Martín R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	31	SW	2.89	30.5%	7.1%	2.7%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.10	2.89	227	68
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.64 FIP	31	SU	2.64	32.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.211	3.30	25.5%	16.3%	162	+0.66	2.58	277	68
Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.21 FIP	31	SW	2.21	30.7%	5.4%	1.9%	.291	4.12	29.3%	24.4%	133	+1.91	2.21	232	67
Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.30 FIP	32	SW	2.30	28.4%	5.1%	1.7%	.302	5.15	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.30	153	67
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	67
Dellin Betances R 2025 · 1.96 FIP	30	SW	1.96	42.3%	8.8%	2.4%	.294	4.10	18.6%	-1.7%	12	+2.14	1.42	308	66
Josh Lueke R 2025 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	66
Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	31	SW	3.52	27.5%	9.2%	2.9%	.282	3.95	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.43	2.52	417	66
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	65

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+0.9	$4M	-$13M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+0.8	$3M	-$14M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+0.7	$3M	-$14M
Totals		$51M		$10M	-$41M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$2025.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$2025.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$41M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.