Tatsuya Imai
P
Houston Astros
Age 28
RHP
5'11" / 176 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.40
FIP4.33
K%27.6%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p7627.0%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
SL+1.4 (43%)
SI (6%)
FB-1.0 (49%)
CH-1.2 (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 15 | 15 | 57 | 261 | 68 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 6.47 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 35 | 146 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 92 | 407 | 108 | 61 | 15 | — | — | 26.6% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.69 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 87 | 366 | 108 | 61 | 15 | — | — | 29.6% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 6.02 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 80 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 73 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.8% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 75 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 69 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.4% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 63 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 53 | 274 | 1169 | 312 | 159 | 42 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 4.57 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 854 | 228 | 116 | 31 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 57 | 261 | 71 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 6.47 | 4.73 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 53 | 200 | 916 | 248 | 130 | 35 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 6.47 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tatsuya Imai (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 28.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.94 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 197 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 68 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 67 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 66 |
| Alex Meyer R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 230 | 66 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 65 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 64 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.43 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.51 | 3.92 | 287 | 62 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 60 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 60 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 60 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 60 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 60 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 60 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.62 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | .356 | 4.76 | 23.0% | 13.5% | 207 | +1.14 | 3.17 | 948 | 59 |
| Danny Salazar R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.34 | 33.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 425 | 59 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .292 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.05 | 3.22 | 254 | 58 |
| Mason Adams R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 58 |
| Andrew Wantz R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.52 | 28.0% | 14.7% | 5.3% | .352 | 3.79 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 68 | -1.73 | 3.50 | 393 | 58 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 26.9% | 13.4% | 1.35 | 4.79 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |