Tatsuya Imai — OGILVIE

Tatsuya Imai P Houston Astros

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 176 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.22

FIP4.21

K%28.6%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2020

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p9032.8%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SL+1.4 (45%)

SI (4%)

FB-1.0 (48%)

CH-1.2 (5%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	15	73	325	91	50	9	75%	3.6	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.20	4.27	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	22	17	78	353	96	58	10	77%	3.5	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.56	4.25	+0.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	22	17	78	353	96	58	10	77%	3.5	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.56	4.25	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	HOU	1	1	2	14	2	3	1	100%	2.0	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	7.1%	22.50	8.53	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	HOU	1	1	3	14	3	5	0	100%	3.0	21.4%	35.7%	-14.3%	0.0%	3.00	5.81	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	HOU	20	15	73	325	91	50	9	75%	3.6	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.20	4.20	+0.6
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	HOU	20	15	73	325	91	50	9	75%	3.6	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.20	4.20	+0.6
ROS	28	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	7	28	8	4	1	100%	6.7	28.6%	15.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.21	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	7	30	8	4	1	100%	7.0	28.6%	15.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	84	381	104	62	11	—	—	27.3%	16.3%	11.0%	2.8%	5.46	4.24	+0.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	79	335	104	62	11	—	—	31.1%	18.6%	12.5%	3.2%	5.80	4.61	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	66	278	78	41	8	100%	6.0	28.0%	14.7%	13.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	261	71	38	8	100%	6.2	27.3%	14.6%	12.7%	3.3%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	63	266	74	39	8	100%	6.3	28.0%	14.7%	13.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	68	36	8	100%	5.9	27.3%	14.6%	12.7%	3.3%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	37	201	865	240	129	26	88%	4.8	27.8%	14.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	37	200	863	239	129	26	88%	4.8	27.8%	14.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		22	17	78	353	99	54	10	77%	3.5	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.56	4.25	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	44	200	909	255	140	26	77%	3.5	28.0%	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	5.56	4.25	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tatsuya Imai (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	29.5%	14.7%	3.0%	—	4.73	27.6%	13.0%	128	+0.24	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	66
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	64
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	63
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	287	62
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	62
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	60
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	59
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	59
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	58
Brian Keller R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	23.6%	11.6%	2.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	1.89	605	57
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	57
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	57
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	56
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	56
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	55
Wei-Chieh Huang R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	28	SP-	4.01	24.9%	10.0%	3.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	349	55
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	55
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	28.3%	14.7%	1.20	4.61
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64