Conner Westenburg

LF Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	A+/ASD	437	.249/.333/.347	1	48	53	—	.213/.283/.298
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBSD	380	.191/.250/.259	2	11	44	-0.9
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBSD	76	.192/.252/.270	1	2	50	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed74

Z-Con%61

ISO20

Whiff%18

BB%17

K%12

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCasio Grider (age 24) · Alfredo Reyes (age 23) · Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†44

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .248 / .257

PA210

HR1

SB6

K%28

BB%5

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 29

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT27

scouting grade only

POWER29

scouting grade only

EYE39

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	78	67	12	2	2	0	6	26	2	3	3	179	267	269	535	90	293	33	8	240	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	359	311	82	20	4	1	25	84	15	45	5	264	347	363	710	100	357	23	7	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	78	69	11	2	2	0	4	33	2	3	3	159	227	246	473	87	273	42	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	359	320	72	16	4	1	17	114	15	45	5	225	295	309	605	84	330	32	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	437	388	83	18	5	1	22	147	17	48	8	214	286	294	580	80	340	34	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	437	378	94	22	6	1	31	110	17	48	8	249	333	347	679	98	347	25	7	304	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	437	395	83	18	5	1	22	147	17	48	8	210	286	289	574	78	320	34	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	437	395	83	18	5	1	22	147	17	48	8	210	286	289	574	78	320	34	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	0%	380	349	68	14	3	2	20	108	8	11	3	191	250	259	509	68	268	28	5	234	44	-25	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	30%	253	232	45	9	2	2	14	71	5	7	2	196	255	276	531	80	270	28	6	243	50	-15	+1	+0	-3	+5	-1.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	30%	76	70	15	3	1	1	4	21	2	2	0	192	252	270	522	78	265	28	5	239	50	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	76	70	15	3	1	1	4	21	2	2	0	214	276	329	605	114	292	28	5	239	51	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	130	26	9	9	34	180	17	17	0	217	278	336	614	119	295	28	5	239	51	-38	+3	+0	-7	+14	-2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	900	813	165	35	8	4	47	278	26	61	11	203	269	280	549	77	301	31	5	243	51	-29	+1	+0	-5	+10	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	119	25	6	3	34	201	19	44	8	203	269	281	550	78	301	31	5	243	51	-41	+2	+0	-7	+14	-3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 359 PAwOBA .311 → .259 (−52)K% 23.4% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.40%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.96%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	4.76%
HBP% /PA	4.18%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.23%
Singles /BIP	25.11%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.042	×0.990	23.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.81%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.042	×0.990	7.54%
Triples /BIP	1.76%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.042	×0.990	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	0.44%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.35%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .311 → .259; ISO .100 → .083; BABIP .357 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 78 PAwOBA .234 → .195 (−39)K% 33.3% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	42.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.45%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	2.02%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.998	18.81%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.050	×0.998	4.14%
Triples /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.050	×0.998	4.34%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .234 → .195; ISO .090 → .075; BABIP .293 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#2Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	286	1	9	193	249	265	-3	+0	-1.2	-0.6
/162	664	3	20	-6.3	+0.0	-2.7	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conner Westenburg (OGILVIE)	24	27	29	67	39	189/248/257	68	268	1	6	28%	5%	44	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Casio Grider 2012 · A	24	40→39	38→40	57→55	37	192/249/276	84	286	4	20	33%	5%	49	-2.4	196/252/280	84	292	5	22	33%	5%	51	-2.3	185/241/264	79	281	5	27	34%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	37	36→30	57→55	35	180/221/239	59	277	4	20	36%	5%	28	-3.9	199/250/264	65	325	4	24	37%	6%	46	-2.6	197/255/255	58	327	4	28	38%	7%	43	-1.5
✕Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. 2024 · A	23	40→39	38→40	57→60	41	192/257/274	83	287	5	20	33%	7%	51	-2.2	194/250/269	75	290	5	28	33%	6%	47	-2.5	190/245/259	69	282	5	35	33%	6%	41	-2.0
✕Jacob Zanon 2019 · A	24	41→36	36→40	53→55	43	192/251/261	69	267	2	22	27%	7%	46	-2.6	194/247/274	80	279	6	15	31%	6%	47	-2.5	177/228/250	73	254	7	15	32%	6%	34	-2.7
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/237/247	66	254	3	19	29%	5%	38	-3.2	186/267/274	88	283	6	13	34%	6%	57	-1.8	158/260/245	87	255	5	10	36%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Jordan Serena 2016 · A	23	39→44	35→30	55→50	38	181/249/242	60	280	2	18	34%	6%	41	-3.0	192/247/255	63	293	3	10	33%	5%	43	-2.8	184/238/241	57	282	3	9	34%	5%	34	-2.1
✕Rand Smith 2011 · A	24	41→39	37→30	53→50	45	196/259/263	67	264	5	15	26%	7%	49	-2.4	208/270/280	72	293	5	10	28%	8%	57	-1.8	193/262/233	41	282	1	4	30%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Curtis Washington Jr. 2024 · A	24	41	34→40	53→60	40	188/262/238	50	309	3	21	37%	8%	46	-2.6	193/253/279	86	292	7	24	34%	6%	51	-2.2	179/240/281	102	263	9	30	34%	6%	45	-1.1
✕Taylor Lewis 2014 · A	24	38	39→45	60→55	35	183/230/277	93	286	5	18	36%	5%	41	-3.0	202/245/291	89	293	6	17	31%	5%	50	-2.3	206/229/274	68	271	5	26	26%	2%	36	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Trey Martin 2017 · AA	24	38→39	36→40	53→55	35	183/221/242	59	274	4	19	34%	4%	30	-3.8	197/239/284	87	301	7	14	35%	5%	47	-2.6	193/235/285	92	297	8	14	36%	4%	44	-1.7
✕Nick Hill 2018 · A	23	42	35→30	58→55	36	191/258/260	69	304	2	18	35%	5%	49	-2.4	202/263/269	67	378	3	14	44%	5%	53	-2.1	188/247/230	42	401	2	20	50%	4%	35	-1.2
✕Leosdany Molina 2023 · A	23	38→34	37→30	53→50	39	187/239/256	69	262	5	17	30%	5%	40	-3.1	194/243/272	78	270	8	14	30%	5%	45	-2.7	175/222/230	55	236	9	18	29%	5%	26	-2.2
✕Andrew Means 2011 · A	24	44→45	37→30	55	34	213/246/280	67	294	5	20	29%	3%	48	-2.5	216/258/290	74	289	6	21	26%	4%	55	-2.0	214/257/281	67	282	5	25	25%	4%	49	-1.4
✕Ryan Lormand 2010 · A	24	44	38→40	56→55	40	211/258/294	83	286	4	16	27%	5%	55	-1.9	200/245/268	68	279	3	15	27%	5%	45	-2.7	188/230/242	53	263	1	17	27%	5%	30	-1.6
✕Yhoswar Garcia 2024 · A	22	39	37→30	58→70	39	190/246/264	74	268	4	27	30%	5%	45	-2.7	209/257/270	61	275	2	42	23%	6%	49	-2.4	208/255/258	50	270	1	58	22%	6%	44	-1.6
✕Brantley Bell 2019 · A	24	42→43	37→40	52→55	38	203/251/277	74	281	5	18	28%	5%	49	-2.4	203/254/284	81	262	6	14	24%	5%	52	-2.2	186/236/256	70	247	5	15	26%	5%	37	-1.4
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	38	41→40	54→55	39	183/258/280	97	290	8	22	37%	7%	54	-2.0	192/267/282	90	334	8	15	41%	7%	58	-1.7	135/227/179	45	293	7	12	51%	7%	18	-1.0
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2024 · A	23	40	37→30	54→65	40	193/252/263	71	286	6	16	33%	7%	47	-2.5	190/254/251	61	269	4	36	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/252/236	50	259	3	50	27%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Rob Henry 2019 · A	24	42	37→40	54→55	49	196/289/273	77	284	4	18	30%	10%	64	-1.3	185/270/264	79	327	6	12	41%	8%	55	-1.9	149/243/213	64	290	6	12	46%	8%	31	-2.4

Conner Westenburg

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps